Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

<ul>
<li>The current macro environment has elements of both the 1970's and mid-2000s commodity bull market</li>
<li>Investor interest and allocation to this asset class is still minimal</li>
<li>A rising cost of capital globally favours a move out of long duration into real assets</li>
</ul>


The current macro environment has elements of both the 1970's and mid-2000s commodity bull market
Investor interest and allocation to this asset class is still minimal
A rising cost of capital globally favours a move out of long duration into real assets


2026 High Conviction Idea: Our Basket of Commodity Equities Will Outperform Broad Equity Indices

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Synopsys, Inc. supplies electronic design automation solutions to the global electronics market.  The Company provides design technologies to creators of advanced integrated circuits, electronic systems, and systems on a chip. Synopsys also provides consulting services and support to its customers to streamline the overall design process and accelerate time to market.

<ul>
<li>NVIDIA &amp; Synopsys announced a new strategic partnership on Dec 1, mostly covering topics they were already strategically partnering on, with one exception, Cloud-Ready Solutions</li>
<li>The partnership sees NVIDIA purchase $2 billion worth of Synopsys stock in a private placement. Other, recent, similar strategic partnerships e.g. Siemens &amp; GM, involved no such investment</li>
<li>They plan to start enabling cloud access for GPU-accelerated engineering solutions. Could this be where that $2 billion finds a home? Is this a new Neocloud in disguise? Let's see</li>
</ul>


NVIDIA &amp; Synopsys announced a new strategic partnership on Dec 1, mostly covering topics they were already strategically partnering on, with one exception, Cloud-Ready Solutions
The partnership sees NVIDIA purchase $2 billion worth of Synopsys stock in a private placement. Other, recent, similar strategic partnerships e.g. Siemens &amp; GM, involved no such investment
They plan to start enabling cloud access for GPU-accelerated engineering solutions. Could this be where that $2 billion finds a home? Is this a new Neocloud in disguise? Let's see


NVIDIA Invests $2 Billion In Synopsys. But Why?

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone / Equity Bottom-Up

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone operates a shipping port on the west coast of India.  The Company's port provides services for bulk and container cargo, crude oil, and railway and other added services.

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone (ADSEZ IN)

<ul>
<li>Since inception (May 15th), our Model Portfolio has appreciated 17.0% - same as MSCI Asia-ex Japan.  Since the last rebalancing (7th November) our Portfolio declined 2.5% vs MXASJ's 1.3% drop.</li>
<li>The recent underperformance came from drawdowns in Tencent Music, Tencent, Alibaba, Hynix, Hyundai Rotem, TSMC. We reduce the first two slightly, exclude BBCA, include Adani Ports, SCB, MAPI, HK Land.</li>
<li>We remain Overweight HK/China and Korea. We upgrade India to Overweight from Neutral, Thailand from Underweight to Neutral, and downgrade Indonesia to Underweight from Neutral. Stay Underweight Taiwan, Neutral Singapore.</li>
</ul>


Since inception (May 15th), our Model Portfolio has appreciated 17.0% - same as MSCI Asia-ex Japan.  Since the last rebalancing (7th November) our Portfolio declined 2.5% vs MXASJ's 1.3% drop.
The recent underperformance came from drawdowns in Tencent Music, Tencent, Alibaba, Hynix, Hyundai Rotem, TSMC. We reduce the first two slightly, exclude BBCA, include Adani Ports, SCB, MAPI, HK Land.
We remain Overweight HK/China and Korea. We upgrade India to Overweight from Neutral, Thailand from Underweight to Neutral, and downgrade Indonesia to Underweight from Neutral. Stay Underweight Taiwan, Neutral Singapore.


Asian Equities: Rebalancing Our Model Portfolio - More to India and ASEAN

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

IShares Bitcoin Trust ETF / Equity Bottom-Up

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is an exchange-traded fund domiciled in the USA. The investment objective is to reflect the performance of spot bitcoin.

<ul>
<li>Bitcoin has seen a historic price decline since October.  The fear gauge is higher than at any time in its history, and technical indicators show further downside is likely.</li>
<li>The bitcoin ecosystem is highly leveraged and has seen miners and related single-stock ETFs fall dramatically.  Bitcoin volatility remains below historical levels, suggesting further selling is likely.</li>
<li>Bitcoin price is highly dependent on monetary conditions, which indicate that easing will end by 1Q 2027. Gold is supported by continuing higher inflation expectations and, hence, the price divergence.</li>
</ul>


Bitcoin has seen a historic price decline since October.  The fear gauge is higher than at any time in its history, and technical indicators show further downside is likely.
The bitcoin ecosystem is highly leveraged and has seen miners and related single-stock ETFs fall dramatically.  Bitcoin volatility remains below historical levels, suggesting further selling is likely.
Bitcoin price is highly dependent on monetary conditions, which indicate that easing will end by 1Q 2027. Gold is supported by continuing higher inflation expectations and, hence, the price divergence.


Bitcoin: HOW TO LOSE MONEY IN A BULL MARKET!!

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

PC Partner Group Ltd. is principally engaged in the design, development and manufacture of video graphics cards. The Group manufactures various electronics components and products for customers under its electronics manufacturing services division and also manufactures other personal computers related products.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pc-partner-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8492:1" rel="noopener">PC Partner (1263 HK)</a> announced it was completing its delisting from HK and moving to Singapore</li>
<li>The move to Singapore was a "life or death" situation for the company, as staying in HK precluded it from having access to Nvidia's latest chips</li>
<li>2026 will be a crucial year to determine PC Partner's future outlook</li>
</ul>



PC Partner (1263 HK) announced it was completing its delisting from HK and moving to Singapore
The move to Singapore was a "life or death" situation for the company, as staying in HK precluded it from having access to Nvidia's latest chips
2026 will be a crucial year to determine PC Partner's future outlook


PC Partner: Delisting in HK on 14 January 2026, Only on SGX Going Forward