Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Financial markets zigzagged mostly as a result of Chair Powell, to a lesser extent the post-meeting statement </li>
<li>The current policy debate is centered on the duration of the prevailing pause and the timing of the eventual rate cut </li>
<li>The latest market pricing for dialing back policy over the next three meetings is less than or roughly a coin-flip </li>
</ul>


Financial markets zigzagged mostly as a result of Chair Powell, to a lesser extent the post-meeting statement 
The current policy debate is centered on the duration of the prevailing pause and the timing of the eventual rate cut 
The latest market pricing for dialing back policy over the next three meetings is less than or roughly a coin-flip 


Fed Snap (May 1 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Siltronic cut its 2024 sales revenue forecast by 10% just days ahead of their Q124 earnings release</li>
<li>Inventory levels, while gradually improving, are still at all time record highs</li>
<li>In the case of Siltronic, it seems likely that Automotive end-market weakness is the main culprit</li>
</ul>


Siltronic cut its 2024 sales revenue forecast by 10% just days ahead of their Q124 earnings release
Inventory levels, while gradually improving, are still at all time record highs
In the case of Siltronic, it seems likely that Automotive end-market weakness is the main culprit


Siltronic Slashes 2024 Sales Forecast As Inventory Woes Worsen

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Lower US GDP growth and higher inflation have revealed that sentiment is turning negative due to the latter.</li>
<li>China is stuck between a rock and a hard place, which makes expecting a short-term devaluation of the Chinese Yuan a bit too easy.</li>
<li>Will the labor market open the door to a recession? And what's up with gold and Bitcoin lately?</li>
</ul>


Lower US GDP growth and higher inflation have revealed that sentiment is turning negative due to the latter.
China is stuck between a rock and a hard place, which makes expecting a short-term devaluation of the Chinese Yuan a bit too easy.
Will the labor market open the door to a recession? And what's up with gold and Bitcoin lately?


The Weekly Market Monitor – Is that Stagflation? And What Is China’s Impossible Choice?

<ul>
<li>Tesla had a dismal quarter but Musk told a fairy tale about RoboTaxis and Robots and the markets rejoiced</li>
<li>Meta had a beat &amp; raise quarter but Zuckerberg told the truth about the fact that it would take time to monetise their AI investments and the markets recoiled</li>
<li>Markets are on edge and big moves either way can be expected post earnings</li>
</ul>


Tesla had a dismal quarter but Musk told a fairy tale about RoboTaxis and Robots and the markets rejoiced
Meta had a beat &amp; raise quarter but Zuckerberg told the truth about the fact that it would take time to monetise their AI investments and the markets recoiled
Markets are on edge and big moves either way can be expected post earnings


Investment Strategist, Transparently.AI

Mark Jolley

Investment Strategist

AI detection of accounting fraud and manipulation

Transparently.AI

Fraud and manipulation of their numbers see companies lose USD1 trillion+ per year for their stakeholders. Transparently.AI has developed an AI system that determines:

1. The likelihood that a company is committing fraud/serious manipulation of their books;
2. Whether it is serious enough to result in total corporate failure;
3. Estimated $ losses to stakeholders;
4. How that manipulation/fraud evolves through time; and
5. Detailed analytics on the forms of manipulation/fraud (e.g. which parts of the accounts, what tricks of the trade, questions for analysts to ask management, where/how to investigate further, etc.).

This is effectively automating the analysis of forensic accountants, activist short sellers, credit analysts, etc to do work that would typically take weeks per company, and instead run it in seconds and for thousands of companies simultaneously.

Critically, this solution frequently alerts users to the presence of serious manipulation risk up to 2-3 years in advance of the wider market and short sellers becoming aware of problems.

<ul>
<li>Airlines are among biggest accounting manipulators worldwide, AI tool shows</li>
<li>Airlines are more assertively managing their accounting as they struggle to reinvigorate profits hurt by Covid-19 pandemic</li>
<li>Chinese, Asian carriers have highest risk scores for accounting manipulation</li>
</ul>


Airlines are among biggest accounting manipulators worldwide, AI tool shows
Airlines are more assertively managing their accounting as they struggle to reinvigorate profits hurt by Covid-19 pandemic
Chinese, Asian carriers have highest risk scores for accounting manipulation


Togo
Insights on Togo

Fed Snap (May 1 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways

The Federal Open Market Committee deliberates, while Chair Powell buys time, as financial markets move back-and-forth anxiously.

Thomas Lam

Siltronic Slashes 2024 Sales Forecast As Inventory Woes Worsen

Siltronic cut its 2024 sales revenue forecast by 10% just days ahead of their Q124 earnings release. It seems likely that Automotive end-market...

William Keating

The Weekly Market Monitor – Is that Stagflation? And What Is China’s Impossible Choice?

Lower growth and higher inflation are not what markets want to see currently as Fed rate cuts get pushed out further. Meanwhile, China faces a...

Jeroen Blokland

Q124 Tesla & Meta: Compare & Contrast

Tesla had a dismal Q1 but Musk told a fairy tale about RoboTaxis & Robots & markets rejoiced. Meta beat & raise but Zuckerberg told the truth about...

William Keating

Are Global Airlines Cooking Their Books?

Airlines worldwide exhibit a high risk of manipulating their accounting as they struggle to boost profits hurt by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Mark Jolley

Fed Snap (May 1 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways

The Federal Open Market Committee deliberates, while Chair Powell buys time, as financial markets move back-and-forth anxiously.

Thomas Lam

Siltronic Slashes 2024 Sales Forecast As Inventory Woes Worsen

Siltronic cut its 2024 sales revenue forecast by 10% just days ahead of their Q124 earnings release. It seems likely that Automotive end-market...

William Keating

The Weekly Market Monitor – Is that Stagflation? And What Is China’s Impossible Choice?

Lower growth and higher inflation are not what markets want to see currently as Fed rate cuts get pushed out further. Meanwhile, China faces a...

Jeroen Blokland

Q124 Tesla & Meta: Compare & Contrast

Tesla had a dismal Q1 but Musk told a fairy tale about RoboTaxis & Robots & markets rejoiced. Meta beat & raise but Zuckerberg told the truth about...

William Keating

Are Global Airlines Cooking Their Books?

​Airlines worldwide exhibit a high risk of manipulating their accounting as they struggle to boost profits hurt by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Mark Jolley

Airlines worldwide exhibit a high risk of manipulating their accounting as they struggle to boost profits hurt by the Covid-19 pandemic.