Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>China: Growth Slows, Stimulus Likely Ahead: Q3 GDP rose 4.8% YoY, below earlier quarters and forecasts (previously expected 5.5% FY growth, now trimmed to 5.1%).</li><li>Japan: Policy Stagnation and Structural Decline: New LDP leader and PM, Mrs. Takaichi, signals more of the same “Abenomics” playbook — fiscal stimulus and ultra-low rates.</li><li>Regional and Market Sentiment: The Bangkok roundtable consensus was broadly cautious — China’s sub-5% growth outlook and Southeast Asia’s softening momentum weighed on sentiment.</li></ul>

China: Growth Slows, Stimulus Likely Ahead: Q3 GDP rose 4.8% YoY, below earlier quarters and forecasts (previously expected 5.5% FY growth, now trimmed to 5.1%).Japan: Policy Stagnation and Structural Decline: New LDP leader and PM, Mrs. Takaichi, signals more of the same “Abenomics” playbook — fiscal stimulus and ultra-low rates.Regional and Market Sentiment: The Bangkok roundtable consensus was broadly cautious — China’s sub-5% growth outlook and Southeast Asia’s softening momentum weighed on sentiment.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 24 Oct 2025

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to trade sideways down today, with the support at 1,250/1,236 and the resistance at 1,268/1,280.</li><li>External factors are viewed as neutral, with renewed US–China tensions offset by the Fed’s signal to inject liquidity.</li><li>Domestically, the outlook is slightly positive ahead of today’s Economic Cabinet meeting, which may unveil a four-month economic stimulus plan.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to trade sideways down today, with the support at 1,250/1,236 and the resistance at 1,268/1,280.External factors are viewed as neutral, with renewed US–China tensions offset by the Fed’s signal to inject liquidity.Domestically, the outlook is slightly positive ahead of today’s Economic Cabinet meeting, which may unveil a four-month economic stimulus plan.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. October 15, 2025

<ul><li>We expect the SET Index to trade sideways up today, with the resistance at 1,313/1,333 and the support at 1,300/1,285.</li><li>Although the MPC’s decision to hold rates against market expectations may pressure financial stocks, it should support banks and stocks benefiting from government stimulus measures.</li><li>The MPC voted 5–2 to maintain the policy rate at 1.5%, with two members supporting a cut to 1.25%.</li></ul>

We expect the SET Index to trade sideways up today, with the resistance at 1,313/1,333 and the support at 1,300/1,285.Although the MPC’s decision to hold rates against market expectations may pressure financial stocks, it should support banks and stocks benefiting from government stimulus measures.The MPC voted 5–2 to maintain the policy rate at 1.5%, with two members supporting a cut to 1.25%.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. October 9, 2025

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>Domestic weakness broadened over the summer, with investment growth cooling sharply</li><li>We expect Beijing to add targeted stimulus to safeguard growth, but a ‘bazooka’ is still unlikely</li><li>Meanwhile, China’s stock markets do not seem to care about weaker macro data</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Domestic weakness broadened over the summer, with investment growth cooling sharplyWe expect Beijing to add targeted stimulus to safeguard growth, but a ‘bazooka’ is still unlikelyMeanwhile, China’s stock markets do not seem to care about weaker macro dataContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China - Managing the growth slowdown amidst a ‘hot’ stock market

<ul><li>Following an acceleration in growth momentum in March helped by frontloading and stimulus, April data showed the impact of the escalating US-China trade war last month, before the Geneva truce agreed mid-May. </li><li>Weaker PMIs, with a sharp drop of the export sub-indices, provided the first clear macro signals (see here). </li><li>‘Hard’ activity data brought more evidence of the initial tariff shock (see here). Industrial production, retail sales and investment slowed in April compared to March. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Following an acceleration in growth momentum in March helped by frontloading and stimulus, April data showed the impact of the escalating US-China trade war last month, before the Geneva truce agreed mid-May. Weaker PMIs, with a sharp drop of the export sub-indices, provided the first clear macro signals (see here). ‘Hard’ activity data brought more evidence of the initial tariff shock (see here). Industrial production, retail sales and investment slowed in April compared to March. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China - Geneva truce softens export shock, but uncertainty remains