Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Failure to remove policy accommodation after household balance sheets had been repaired after the global financial crisis simply prolonged the secular stagnation thesis that had been embraced by bond investors.</li>
<li>The current estimate of the real neutral federal funds rate is too low relative to potential GDP growth, presenting an opportunity for bond investors to jettison their secular stagnation thesis.</li>
<li>A structurally higher neutral Fed policy rate will impact short-term funding markets, while equity investors will need to place greater focus on long-term corporate profit growth for their returns. </li>
</ul>


Failure to remove policy accommodation after household balance sheets had been repaired after the global financial crisis simply prolonged the secular stagnation thesis that had been embraced by bond investors.
The current estimate of the real neutral federal funds rate is too low relative to potential GDP growth, presenting an opportunity for bond investors to jettison their secular stagnation thesis.
A structurally higher neutral Fed policy rate will impact short-term funding markets, while equity investors will need to place greater focus on long-term corporate profit growth for their returns. 


Future Fed Policy Conduct: Time to Eradicate the Secular Stagnation Thesis

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The U.S. economy is undergoing a mid-cycle expansion, which is characterized by a combination of fundamental and technical momentum.</li>
<li>As long as the economy stays resilient, earnings estimates rise and inflation doesn’t accelerate, stock prices can advance without rate cuts.</li>
<li>The key tail-risk to the benign scenario is a disorderly Asian competitive currency devaluation that sinks emerging markets and sparks a risk-off response.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. economy is undergoing a mid-cycle expansion, which is characterized by a combination of fundamental and technical momentum.
As long as the economy stays resilient, earnings estimates rise and inflation doesn’t accelerate, stock prices can advance without rate cuts.
The key tail-risk to the benign scenario is a disorderly Asian competitive currency devaluation that sinks emerging markets and sparks a risk-off response.


Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>With the BOJ's struggle to support the yen gaining traction,  the NKY and TPX both hit major resistance</li>
<li>Hong Kong finally breaches resistance with a potential move to 20k in the near term</li>
<li>Diversification opportunities are abundant with potential negative correlation between China/HK markets and US</li>
</ul>


With the BOJ's struggle to support the yen gaining traction,  the NKY and TPX both hit major resistance
Hong Kong finally breaches resistance with a potential move to 20k in the near term
Diversification opportunities are abundant with potential negative correlation between China/HK markets and US


Technically Speaking: Japan Meets Resistance and Hong Kong Finally Breaks Downtrend

<ul>
<li>The bad news is that Hong Kong will not have a V-Shaped recovery which will keep market sentiment subdued</li>
<li>The good news is that Hong Kong will not have a V-Shaped recovery which will contribute to a reduction in overall market volatility</li>
<li>After an epic bear market, Hong Kong will enter a secular bull market this year</li>
</ul>


The bad news is that Hong Kong will not have a V-Shaped recovery which will keep market sentiment subdued
The good news is that Hong Kong will not have a V-Shaped recovery which will contribute to a reduction in overall market volatility
After an epic bear market, Hong Kong will enter a secular bull market this year


Hong Kong: A Tale of Two Markets and When to Re-Enter

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 1,365/1,373 points (10-day EMA/25-day EMA) and the support at 1,353/1,349 points.</li><li>Overall, the index is moving in a downtrend within the range of 1,300-1,410 points.</li><li>In the short term, it is still in the rebound range with the major resistance at 1,357/1,370/1,384 points (1/3 and 2/3 of the Fibonacci range of 1,411.46-1,330.24 points observed from April 10-19). </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 1,365/1,373 points (10-day EMA/25-day EMA) and the support at 1,353/1,349 points.Overall, the index is moving in a downtrend within the range of 1,300-1,410 points.In the short term, it is still in the rebound range with the major resistance at 1,357/1,370/1,384 points (1/3 and 2/3 of the Fibonacci range of 1,411.46-1,330.24 points observed from April 10-19). 

Cross Asset Strategy
Cross Asset Strategy Insights

Future Fed Policy Conduct: Time to Eradicate the Secular Stagnation Thesis

Repricing of the Fed's policy conduct has been major. Adjustments could have been reduced if accommodation had been removed earlier. Structurally...

DeSaque Macro Research

Relax, It's Just A Mid-Cycle Expansion

The U.S. economy is undergoing a mid-cycle expansion. As long as the economy stays resilient, earnings estimates rise and inflation doesn’t...

Cam Hui

Technically Speaking: Japan Meets Resistance and Hong Kong Finally Breaks Downtrend

HSI has now clearly broken its downtrend on large volume this week. Global reallocation to Hong Kong listed China shares and mainland buying...

David Mudd

Hong Kong: A Tale of Two Markets and When to Re-Enter

HSI has now broken key resistance levels or 17k (Bear Market Trend Channel), 17,300 (200 Day Moving Average) and 17,500 (Upper Bollinger Band). ...

David Mudd

KTX Zoom - APRIL 26, 2024

echnically, the SET Index is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 1,365/1,373 points (10-day EMA/25-day EMA) and the support at 1,353/1,349...

Krungthai XSpring