Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The anomalous behavior of the unemployment rate bears further monitoring</li>
<li>The ongoing labor market rebalancing could prospectively result in a higher unemployment rate with a lag</li>
<li>While the April survey data implies potentially soggy headline growth in 2Q 2024, my weekly recession odds indicator remains relatively benign for now </li>
</ul>


The anomalous behavior of the unemployment rate bears further monitoring
The ongoing labor market rebalancing could prospectively result in a higher unemployment rate with a lag
While the April survey data implies potentially soggy headline growth in 2Q 2024, my weekly recession odds indicator remains relatively benign for now 


Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Q1 Performance Analysis for active Global EM funds.  Country/Sector/Stock Positioning relative to benchmark for Global funds</li>
<li>Spotlight on Indonesia activity among Asia Ex-Japan investors.  Sector Dispersion in USA funds</li>
<li>Extreme Stock Positioning in UK Small/Midcap funds. Ownership Trends in the Financials sector among MSCI China funds.</li>
</ul>


Q1 Performance Analysis for active Global EM funds.  Country/Sector/Stock Positioning relative to benchmark for Global funds
Spotlight on Indonesia activity among Asia Ex-Japan investors.  Sector Dispersion in USA funds
Extreme Stock Positioning in UK Small/Midcap funds. Ownership Trends in the Financials sector among MSCI China funds.


<ul>
<li>Financial markets zigzagged mostly as a result of Chair Powell, to a lesser extent the post-meeting statement </li>
<li>The current policy debate is centered on the duration of the prevailing pause and the timing of the eventual rate cut </li>
<li>The latest market pricing for dialing back policy over the next three meetings is less than or roughly a coin-flip </li>
</ul>


Financial markets zigzagged mostly as a result of Chair Powell, to a lesser extent the post-meeting statement 
The current policy debate is centered on the duration of the prevailing pause and the timing of the eventual rate cut 
The latest market pricing for dialing back policy over the next three meetings is less than or roughly a coin-flip 


Fed Snap (May 1 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Siltronic cut its 2024 sales revenue forecast by 10% just days ahead of their Q124 earnings release</li>
<li>Inventory levels, while gradually improving, are still at all time record highs</li>
<li>In the case of Siltronic, it seems likely that Automotive end-market weakness is the main culprit</li>
</ul>


Siltronic cut its 2024 sales revenue forecast by 10% just days ahead of their Q124 earnings release
Inventory levels, while gradually improving, are still at all time record highs
In the case of Siltronic, it seems likely that Automotive end-market weakness is the main culprit


Siltronic Slashes 2024 Sales Forecast As Inventory Woes Worsen

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Lower US GDP growth and higher inflation have revealed that sentiment is turning negative due to the latter.</li>
<li>China is stuck between a rock and a hard place, which makes expecting a short-term devaluation of the Chinese Yuan a bit too easy.</li>
<li>Will the labor market open the door to a recession? And what's up with gold and Bitcoin lately?</li>
</ul>


Lower US GDP growth and higher inflation have revealed that sentiment is turning negative due to the latter.
China is stuck between a rock and a hard place, which makes expecting a short-term devaluation of the Chinese Yuan a bit too easy.
Will the labor market open the door to a recession? And what's up with gold and Bitcoin lately?


The Weekly Market Monitor – Is that Stagflation? And What Is China’s Impossible Choice?

Croatia
Insights on Croatia

The Art and Science of Data Dependence

The latest data tug-of-war, though relatively murky and uneven, implies emerging hints of less forward momentum with patches of softness.

Thomas Lam

New Release: Fund Positioning Chart Pack

The latest trends in active equity fund positioning, from Indonesian activity among Asia Ex-Japan funds to sector dispersion among active US funds.

Steven Holden

Fed Snap (May 1 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways

The Federal Open Market Committee deliberates, while Chair Powell buys time, as financial markets move back-and-forth anxiously.

Thomas Lam

Siltronic Slashes 2024 Sales Forecast As Inventory Woes Worsen

Siltronic cut its 2024 sales revenue forecast by 10% just days ahead of their Q124 earnings release. It seems likely that Automotive end-market...

William Keating

The Weekly Market Monitor – Is that Stagflation? And What Is China’s Impossible Choice?

Lower growth and higher inflation are not what markets want to see currently as Fed rate cuts get pushed out further. Meanwhile, China faces a...

Jeroen Blokland