Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

ASE Technology Holding   / Equity Bottom-Up

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. offers assembly and testing services. The Company provides outsourced assembly, semiconductor testing, semiconductor packaging, and other related services. ASE Technology Holding operates in Taiwan.

<ul>
<li>General products did not show an immediate recovery, but selective products have reached the bottom.    </li>
<li>The 3Q24 sales will grow in the mid to high teens QoQ in EMS, and IC-ATM sales will grow in the mid to high single digits QoQ.  </li>
<li>AI remains strong across all sectors. Despite AI SP driving the replacement cycle, other general demands still show muted recovery in 3Q24.</li>
</ul>


General products did not show an immediate recovery, but selective products have reached the bottom.    
The 3Q24 sales will grow in the mid to high teens QoQ in EMS, and IC-ATM sales will grow in the mid to high single digits QoQ.  
AI remains strong across all sectors. Despite AI SP driving the replacement cycle, other general demands still show muted recovery in 3Q24.


ASEH (3017.TT; ASX.US): ​Selective Products Have Hit Bottom While General Products Lag Behind.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Nvidia gave guidance for significantly slower Q/Q growth in Q2</li>
<li>Nvidia and its HBM suppliers have told of shortages, driving hyperscale datacenters to build excess inventory</li>
<li>At the first sign of softness, Nvidia's customers are likely to enter a digestion phase, drastically reducing orders</li>
</ul>


Nvidia gave guidance for significantly slower Q/Q growth in Q2
Nvidia and its HBM suppliers have told of shortages, driving hyperscale datacenters to build excess inventory
At the first sign of softness, Nvidia's customers are likely to enter a digestion phase, drastically reducing orders


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Silicon Motion Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

Silicon Motion Technology Corporation is a semiconductor company that designs, develops, and markets semiconductor products for the multimedia consumer electronics market. The Company's products include controllers used in mobile storage media and multimedia systems on a chip.

<ul>
<li>We had a conference call with Silicon Motion; the leading global provider of NAND flash controllers and solid-state storage solutions for the consumer, enterprise, and industrial markets.</li>
<li>We focus on how Silicon Motion is leveraging advantages of QLC NAND flash memory, which is becoming a critical memory solution for new AI servers, AI PCs, and AI mobiles</li>
<li>Maintain Structural Long rating for Silicon Motion and $102 valuation. The company is in a leading position to benefit from the rising importance of advanced memory controllers for AI applications.</li>
</ul>


We had a conference call with Silicon Motion; the leading global provider of NAND flash controllers and solid-state storage solutions for the consumer, enterprise, and industrial markets.
We focus on how Silicon Motion is leveraging advantages of QLC NAND flash memory, which is becoming a critical memory solution for new AI servers, AI PCs, and AI mobiles
Maintain Structural Long rating for Silicon Motion and $102 valuation. The company is in a leading position to benefit from the rising importance of advanced memory controllers for AI applications.


TechChain Insights: Call with Silicon Motion; QLC NAND Emerging as Key Enabler for AI Devices

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul>
<li>
Aehr had a messy print, with the core business actually weaker than expected as they incorporated their recent acquisition. It’s hard to stay bearish, as they have a lot of potential product launches coming.
</li>
<li>
TSMC beat gross margins despite everything because of higher utilization. The logic cycle is starting to kick off in earnest. I believe WFE Capex will be much higher next year.
</li>
<li>
ASML talked up high-NA DRAM insertion on 25/26. Only Samsung could do it. Good luck, Samsung!

</li>
</ul>



Aehr had a messy print, with the core business actually weaker than expected as they incorporated their recent acquisition. It’s hard to stay bearish, as they have a lot of potential product launches coming.


TSMC beat gross margins despite everything because of higher utilization. The logic cycle is starting to kick off in earnest. I believe WFE Capex will be much higher next year.


ASML talked up high-NA DRAM insertion on 25/26. Only Samsung could do it. Good luck, Samsung!




Earnings: TSMC, AEHR, ASML, VAT Group, Export Restrictions

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Irate U.S. politicians have gunned down their own tech sector, triggering declines of 7% to 20% among leading semiconductor equipment stocks outside China. </li>
<li>We expect a bounce after such large declines - and further gains for Naura and AMEC in China. </li>
<li>Investors now face difficult questions about the future of Chinese demand, the sustainability of the AI boom, and valuations. We are not optimistic.</li>
</ul>


Irate U.S. politicians have gunned down their own tech sector, triggering declines of 7% to 20% among leading semiconductor equipment stocks outside China. 
We expect a bounce after such large declines - and further gains for Naura and AMEC in China. 
Investors now face difficult questions about the future of Chinese demand, the sustainability of the AI boom, and valuations. We are not optimistic.


Semiconductor Equipment Stocks: A Bounce Before the Reckoning

Insights on Tech Hardware and Semiconductors

Tech Hardware and Semiconductor Research
Insights on Tech Hardware and Semiconductors

ASEH (3017.TT; ASX.US): Selective Products Have Hit Bottom While General Products Lag Behind.

Selective products have hit bottom while general products lag behind, with EMS and IC-ATM sales expected to grow in 3Q24, driven by strong AI demand.

Patrick Liao

Is the AI Boom Over?

Nvidia's slower Q2 growth guidance and shortages in GPU and HBM supply could lead to excess inventory and reduced orders from customers, causing...

Jim Handy

TechChain Insights: Call with Silicon Motion; QLC NAND Emerging as Key Enabler for AI Devices

Silicon Motion is leading the way in leveraging QLC NAND flash memory for AI applications, with a strong position for growth in the market.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Earnings: TSMC, AEHR, ASML, VAT Group, Export Restrictions

The first week of earnings lends us confirmation bias, and additional fears of export restrictions. Let’s start with the actual earnings order,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductor Equipment Stocks: A Bounce Before the Reckoning

Reports of tighter US sanctions and Trump's comments about Taiwan have broken the momentum of SPE stocks. A bounce seems likely, but a scenario of...

Scott Foster

ASEH (3017.TT; ASX.US): ​Selective Products Have Hit Bottom While General Products Lag Behind.

​Selective products have hit bottom while general products lag behind, with EMS and IC-ATM sales expected to grow in 3Q24, driven by strong AI demand.

Patrick Liao

Is the AI Boom Over?

​Nvidia's slower Q2 growth guidance and shortages in GPU and HBM supply could lead to excess inventory and reduced orders from customers, causing...

Jim Handy

TechChain Insights: Call with Silicon Motion; QLC NAND Emerging as Key Enabler for AI Devices

​Silicon Motion is leading the way in leveraging QLC NAND flash memory for AI applications, with a strong position for growth in the market.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Earnings: TSMC, AEHR, ASML, VAT Group, Export Restrictions

The first week of earnings lends us confirmation bias, and additional fears of export restrictions. Let’s start with the actual earnings order,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductor Equipment Stocks: A Bounce Before the Reckoning

Reports of tighter US sanctions and Trump's comments about Taiwan have broken the momentum of SPE stocks. A bounce seems likely, but a scenario of...

Scott Foster

ASEH (3017.TT; ASX.US): Selective Products Have Hit Bottom While General Products Lag Behind.

Selective products have hit bottom while general products lag behind, with EMS and IC-ATM sales expected to grow in 3Q24, driven by strong AI demand.

Nvidia's slower Q2 growth guidance and shortages in GPU and HBM supply could lead to excess inventory and reduced orders from customers, causing...

Silicon Motion is leading the way in leveraging QLC NAND flash memory for AI applications, with a strong position for growth in the market.