Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients worldwide.

<ul>
<li>ASML today reported Q326 net sales of €11.66 billion, up 25.0% QoQ and up 55.2% YoY, near the high end of guidance</li>
<li>Q4 2026 guided for total net sales between €14.2 billion and €15.2 billion,  up 26% QoQ, with a gross margin around 57%</li>
<li>ASML now expects they won't be able to meet customer demand in 2027 &amp; 2028 and are investigating ways to increase 2028 capacity beyond the 30% increase they previously communicated.</li>
</ul>


ASML today reported Q326 net sales of €11.66 billion, up 25.0% QoQ and up 55.2% YoY, near the high end of guidance
Q4 2026 guided for total net sales between €14.2 billion and €15.2 billion,  up 26% QoQ, with a gross margin around 57%
ASML now expects they won't be able to meet customer demand in 2027 &amp; 2028 and are investigating ways to increase 2028 capacity beyond the 30% increase they previously communicated.


ASML Q326 Earnings Review. TSMC Confirmed On High NA EUV By 2030. Phew!

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Fermi announced that it has signed a credit support agreement with AMD, supporting a lease for phase one of Fermi's Project Matador energy and AI buildout with 222 MW  capacity</li>
<li>The announcement comes as TensorWave, Fermi's only prospective tenant, last month abruptly pushed out the closing date on its tenancy agreement to October 31</li>
<li>TensorWave is a key partner in AMD's Helios deployment and ramp, which began last month. AMD is effectively now bankrolling TensorWave's role in that very ramp.</li>
</ul>


Fermi announced that it has signed a credit support agreement with AMD, supporting a lease for phase one of Fermi's Project Matador energy and AI buildout with 222 MW  capacity
The announcement comes as TensorWave, Fermi's only prospective tenant, last month abruptly pushed out the closing date on its tenancy agreement to October 31
TensorWave is a key partner in AMD's Helios deployment and ramp, which began last month. AMD is effectively now bankrolling TensorWave's role in that very ramp.


Fermi Soars As AMD Signs Credit Support Agreement. Now, Why Would They Do That?

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Nanya reported Q326 revenues of NT$133,649 million, up 61.9% QoQ and up 611.7% YoY.</li>
<li>Gross profit was NT$114,482 million, with a gross margin of 85.7%, up 6.2 percentage points QoQ and up 67.2 percentage points YoY.</li>
<li>ASPs rose more than 60% QoQ and more than 500% YoY, almost entirely reflecting the renewal of long-term agreements (LTAs) at materially higher prices.</li>
</ul>


Nanya reported Q326 revenues of NT$133,649 million, up 61.9% QoQ and up 611.7% YoY.
Gross profit was NT$114,482 million, with a gross margin of 85.7%, up 6.2 percentage points QoQ and up 67.2 percentage points YoY.
ASPs rose more than 60% QoQ and more than 500% YoY, almost entirely reflecting the renewal of long-term agreements (LTAs) at materially higher prices.


Nanya Q326 Earnings Review. Has The Cycle Peaked?

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>We estimate that TSMC’s revenue could grow by approximately 40%–43% YoY in 2026.</li>
<li>2027 growth remains dominated by AI and its the only Key Growth Driver  </li>
<li>The Key Question: What Will Happen in 2028? Investment Slightly Exceeds Near-Term Demand — Our Preferred Scenario</li>
</ul>


We estimate that TSMC’s revenue could grow by approximately 40%–43% YoY in 2026.
2027 growth remains dominated by AI and its the only Key Growth Driver  
The Key Question: What Will Happen in 2028? Investment Slightly Exceeds Near-Term Demand — Our Preferred Scenario


TSMC (2330.TT;TSM.US): Preferred Scenario Is: Investment Slightly Exceeds Near-Term Demand by 2028

Synopsys, Inc. supplies electronic design automation solutions to the global electronics market.  The Company provides design technologies to creators of advanced integrated circuits, electronic systems, and systems on a chip. Synopsys also provides consulting services and support to its customers to streamline the overall design process and accelerate time to market.

<ul>
<li>For "Factory 2" engagements, Synopsys collects upfront priority/customization fees and secures volume-based royalties once chips enter production. Royalties carry 100% gross margin and will begin ramping in FY28/FY29</li>
<li>Outcome-Based Revenue Sharing (Lane 3): OpenAI hosts the model/compute, and Synopsys splits revenue on a service basis derived from the Power, Performance, and Area (PPA) improvements achieved by the model</li>
<li>AI models cannot validate physics; they require Synopsys’ core software (and Ansys sign-off tools) for fidelity checkpoints, placement, routing, and GDSII sign-off. Consequently, AI increases rather than decreases EDA usage.</li>
</ul>


For "Factory 2" engagements, Synopsys collects upfront priority/customization fees and secures volume-based royalties once chips enter production. Royalties carry 100% gross margin and will begin ramping in FY28/FY29
Outcome-Based Revenue Sharing (Lane 3): OpenAI hosts the model/compute, and Synopsys splits revenue on a service basis derived from the Power, Performance, and Area (PPA) improvements achieved by the model
AI models cannot validate physics; they require Synopsys’ core software (and Ansys sign-off tools) for fidelity checkpoints, placement, routing, and GDSII sign-off. Consequently, AI increases rather than decreases EDA usage.


Synopsys Investor Day Q&A Session. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

Insights on Tech Hardware and Semiconductors