Asia Economist, Founder, Asia Decoded

Priyanka Kishore

Asia Economist, Founder

Asia Decoded

Independent, data-centric insights that help you stay on top of Asia's economics and geopolitics.

Independent Data-centric Insights

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Middle East war is tightening energy supplies, worsening terms of trade, and narrowing the policy space to cushion the blow simultaneously.</li>
<li>In the short-term, the downside risks are highest for the Philippines, Vietnam, India and Thailand.</li>
<li>A prolonged supply interruption extending beyond four to five months will likely amplify recessions risks for Singapore, Thailand, S Korea, Japan and Taiwan.</li>
</ul>


The Middle East war is tightening energy supplies, worsening terms of trade, and narrowing the policy space to cushion the blow simultaneously.
In the short-term, the downside risks are highest for the Philippines, Vietnam, India and Thailand.
A prolonged supply interruption extending beyond four to five months will likely amplify recessions risks for Singapore, Thailand, S Korea, Japan and Taiwan.


<ul>
<li>Asia has enough stockpiles to weather at least a month of crude import disruptions.</li>
<li>It'll still likely feel the impact of higher oil prices through rising import bills, deteriorating current account balances and weaker currencies.</li>
<li>Monetary policy will likely prioritise inflation over growth, pushing the bar for rate cuts higher.</li>
</ul>


Asia has enough stockpiles to weather at least a month of crude import disruptions.
It'll still likely feel the impact of higher oil prices through rising import bills, deteriorating current account balances and weaker currencies.
Monetary policy will likely prioritise inflation over growth, pushing the bar for rate cuts higher.


<ul>
<li>The court ruling reduces the risk of excessively high, permanent tariffs for Asian economies going forward. potential avenues.</li>
<li>Focus will now shift to sectoral tariffs from across-the-board country tariffs.</li>
<li>Signed trade deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, and Indonesia are likely to be renegotiated to take into account Section 232 and potential tariffs from other avenues.</li>
</ul>


The court ruling reduces the risk of excessively high, permanent tariffs for Asian economies going forward. potential avenues.
Focus will now shift to sectoral tariffs from across-the-board country tariffs.
Signed trade deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, and Indonesia are likely to be renegotiated to take into account Section 232 and potential tariffs from other avenues.


Updated : IEEPA Ruling Is a Silver Lining

<ul>
<li>The court ruling reduces the risk of excessively high, permanent tariffs for Asian economies going forward. </li>
<li>Focus will now shift to sectoral tariffs from across-the-board country tariffs.</li>
<li>Signed trade deals with Malaysia, Cambodia and Indonesia are likely to be re-negotiated to take into account Section 232v and tariffs under other potential avenues.</li>
</ul>


The court ruling reduces the risk of excessively high, permanent tariffs for Asian economies going forward. 
Focus will now shift to sectoral tariffs from across-the-board country tariffs.
Signed trade deals with Malaysia, Cambodia and Indonesia are likely to be re-negotiated to take into account Section 232v and tariffs under other potential avenues.


<ul>
<li>India's terms, as set out in the framework for the agreement, appear generous relative to its SEA peers.</li>
<li>The US deal offers a window to build export momentum and expand manufacturing, that India should capitalize to the best of its ability.</li>
<li>More importantly, New Delhi should use the breathing space afforded by the truce with the Washington to focus on the long-term reforms required to lift the economy.</li>
</ul>


India's terms, as set out in the framework for the agreement, appear generous relative to its SEA peers.
The US deal offers a window to build export momentum and expand manufacturing, that India should capitalize to the best of its ability.
More importantly, New Delhi should use the breathing space afforded by the truce with the Washington to focus on the long-term reforms required to lift the economy.


India : Making the Best of the US Trade Deal

Asia Decoded
Independent Data-centric Insights

Asia's Growth Risks Are Compounding

A severe disruption in energy supplies lasting beyond four to five months will raise recession risks for several Asian economies.

Priyanka Kishore

War, Oil and Asia

Asia can handle short-lived import disruptions, but higher oil prices will lead to rising import bills and weaker currencies, pushing monetary...

Priyanka Kishore

Updated : IEEPA Ruling Is a Silver Lining

Potentially new tariffs notwithstanding, the court ruling reduces the risk of excessively high, permanent tariffs for Asian economies going forward.

Priyanka Kishore

IEEPA Ruling Is a Silver Lining

Potentially new tariffs notwithstanding, the court ruling reduces the risk of excessively high, permanent tariffs for Asian economies going forward.

Priyanka Kishore

India : Making the Best of the US Trade Deal

India should take advantage of the US deal to boost exports and manufacturing, while also focusing on long-term economic reforms.

Priyanka Kishore

Asia's Growth Risks Are Compounding

A severe disruption in energy supplies lasting beyond four to five months will raise recession risks for several Asian economies.

Priyanka Kishore

War, Oil and Asia

Asia can handle short-lived import disruptions, but higher oil prices will lead to rising import bills and weaker currencies, pushing monetary...

Priyanka Kishore

Updated : IEEPA Ruling Is a Silver Lining

Potentially new tariffs notwithstanding, the court ruling reduces the risk of excessively high, permanent tariffs for Asian economies going forward.

Priyanka Kishore

IEEPA Ruling Is a Silver Lining

Potentially new tariffs notwithstanding, the court ruling reduces the risk of excessively high, permanent tariffs for Asian economies going forward.

Priyanka Kishore

India : Making the Best of the US Trade Deal

​India should take advantage of the US deal to boost exports and manufacturing, while also focusing on long-term economic reforms.

Priyanka Kishore

India should take advantage of the US deal to boost exports and manufacturing, while also focusing on long-term economic reforms.