Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Kanzhun Limited provides online recruitment services. The Company connects job seekers and enterprise users through its mobile application. Kanzhun offers a mobile-native product that promotes instant direct chats between enterprise users and job seekers.

<ul>
<li>Due to weakening hiring demand from both manufacturing and service, we expect BZ’s cash billing to decline 5% QoQ in 2Q24, 9% below consensus. </li>
<li>We believe BZ’s user matrices still growing and leading. The weakness is mainly attributable to the employer/hiring side;</li>
<li>We cut TP by US$3 to US$19/ADS while keep the BUY rating.</li>
</ul>


Due to weakening hiring demand from both manufacturing and service, we expect BZ’s cash billing to decline 5% QoQ in 2Q24, 9% below consensus. 
We believe BZ’s user matrices still growing and leading. The weakness is mainly attributable to the employer/hiring side;
We cut TP by US$3 to US$19/ADS while keep the BUY rating.


[Kanzhun (BZ US, BUY, TP US$19) TP Change]: Impacted by Poor Macro but Still on Top of Competition

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>1797 HK/JD US: Popular live streamer Dong Yuhui leaves East Buy (-/+)</li>
<li>BABA US/PDD US: AliExpress receives small fine in Korea due to data privacy violation (+)</li>
<li>Chinese Gaming Industry: Games Can Now Be Filed for Testing Without Approval of Game Code, Guangdong Province Leads the Way  (+)</li>
</ul>


1797 HK/JD US: Popular live streamer Dong Yuhui leaves East Buy (-/+)
BABA US/PDD US: AliExpress receives small fine in Korea due to data privacy violation (+)
Chinese Gaming Industry: Games Can Now Be Filed for Testing Without Approval of Game Code, Guangdong Province Leads the Way  (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:1797 HK/JD US/BABA US/PDD US/3690 HK/1024HK/700HK/NTE US/TCOMUS/AMZNUS

<ul>
<li>1810 HK/AAPL: Xiaomi’s China unit volume grew 17% yoy in 2Q (+/-)</li>
<li>1810 HK: Xiaomi acquires more land to build another EV factory (+)</li>
<li>981 HK/1810 HK: SMIC’s upcoming “5nm” process to feature significant efficiency improvement (+/-)</li>
</ul>


1810 HK/AAPL: Xiaomi’s China unit volume grew 17% yoy in 2Q (+/-)
1810 HK: Xiaomi acquires more land to build another EV factory (+)
981 HK/1810 HK: SMIC’s upcoming “5nm” process to feature significant efficiency improvement (+/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/AAPL/981 HK/LKNCY US/BZ US/LI US/1211 HK

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

<ul>
<li>We expect Meituan’s C2Q24 rev. and non-IFRS NI to be 0.7% and 12.3% higher than cons, driven by resilient catering demand and eased competition.</li>
<li>We expect Meituan in-store OPM improve to 33%/35% in 2Q24/2H24 supported by increasing commission rate and cutting BD cost.</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY rating and raise TP by HK$4 to HK$160/share to factor in the better profitability.</li>
</ul>


We expect Meituan’s C2Q24 rev. and non-IFRS NI to be 0.7% and 12.3% higher than cons, driven by resilient catering demand and eased competition.
We expect Meituan in-store OPM improve to 33%/35% in 2Q24/2H24 supported by increasing commission rate and cutting BD cost.
We maintain the stock as BUY rating and raise TP by HK$4 to HK$160/share to factor in the better profitability.


[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$160) TP Change]: Resilient Catering & Eased Competition Support Growth

China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

<ul>
<li>US semiconductor restrictions are limiting China's access to advanced AI accelerators, causing a widening gap in AI compute. The US will expand its lead over China to ~7x by 2025.</li>
<li>Although China has domestic alternatives, bottlenecks due to separate US restrictions on semiconductor equipment are hindering yields and capacity expansions, effectively limiting China’s capacity to train state-of-the-art AI models.</li>
<li>To maximize AI compute, Huawei will likely curtail smartphone semiconductors in favor of AI accelerators. We expect manufacturers offering mid-end Android devices like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> to benefit first.</li>
</ul>


US semiconductor restrictions are limiting China's access to advanced AI accelerators, causing a widening gap in AI compute. The US will expand its lead over China to ~7x by 2025.
Although China has domestic alternatives, bottlenecks due to separate US restrictions on semiconductor equipment are hindering yields and capacity expansions, effectively limiting China’s capacity to train state-of-the-art AI models.
To maximize AI compute, Huawei will likely curtail smartphone semiconductors in favor of AI accelerators. We expect manufacturers offering mid-end Android devices like Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) to benefit first.


Demand for AI Chips Might Cut Huawei's Smartphone Semiconductor Short

Blue Lotus Research Institute
China growth and global non-US Internet equities

[Kanzhun (BZ US, BUY, TP US$19) TP Change]: Impacted by Poor Macro but Still on Top of Competition

Expecting a 5% YoY decline in cash billing for BZ in 2Q24 due to weakening hiring demand, but user matrices are still growing. TP lowered to US$19...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:1797 HK/JD US/BABA US/PDD US/3690 HK/1024HK/700HK/NTE US/TCOMUS/AMZNUS

Popular live streamer Dong Yuhui leaves East Buy, AliExpress fined for data privacy violation in Korea, and Guangdong Province allows games to be...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/AAPL/981 HK/LKNCY US/BZ US/LI US/1211 HK

Xiaomi's China unit sees growth, acquires land for new EV factory, while SMIC's upcoming "5nm" process promises efficiency boost.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$160) TP Change]: Resilient Catering & Eased Competition Support Growth

Meituan's strong performance in Q2 2024 driven by resilient catering demand and improved profitability, stock maintained as BUY with raised target...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Demand for AI Chips Might Cut Huawei's Smartphone Semiconductor Short

US AI accelerator and wafer equipment restrictions are widening the US/China AI compute gap. Expect Huawei to curtail smartphone IC in favor of AI...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Kanzhun (BZ US, BUY, TP US$19) TP Change]: Impacted by Poor Macro but Still on Top of Competition

​Expecting a 5% YoY decline in cash billing for BZ in 2Q24 due to weakening hiring demand, but user matrices are still growing. TP lowered to US$19...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:1797 HK/JD US/BABA US/PDD US/3690 HK/1024HK/700HK/NTE US/TCOMUS/AMZNUS

​Popular live streamer Dong Yuhui leaves East Buy, AliExpress fined for data privacy violation in Korea, and Guangdong Province allows games to be...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/AAPL/981 HK/LKNCY US/BZ US/LI US/1211 HK

​Xiaomi's China unit sees growth, acquires land for new EV factory, while SMIC's upcoming "5nm" process promises efficiency boost.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$160) TP Change]: Resilient Catering & Eased Competition Support Growth

​Meituan's strong performance in Q2 2024 driven by resilient catering demand and improved profitability, stock maintained as BUY with raised target...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Demand for AI Chips Might Cut Huawei's Smartphone Semiconductor Short

​US AI accelerator and wafer equipment restrictions are widening the US/China AI compute gap. Expect Huawei to curtail smartphone IC in favor of AI...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Expecting a 5% YoY decline in cash billing for BZ in 2Q24 due to weakening hiring demand, but user matrices are still growing. TP lowered to US$19...

Popular live streamer Dong Yuhui leaves East Buy, AliExpress fined for data privacy violation in Korea, and Guangdong Province allows games to be...

Xiaomi's China unit sees growth, acquires land for new EV factory, while SMIC's upcoming "5nm" process promises efficiency boost.

Meituan's strong performance in Q2 2024 driven by resilient catering demand and improved profitability, stock maintained as BUY with raised target...

US AI accelerator and wafer equipment restrictions are widening the US/China AI compute gap. Expect Huawei to curtail smartphone IC in favor of AI...