Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Washington’s apparent disengagement from its European partners is troubling Asian governments who are rethinking their own foreign policy and security strategies.</li>
<li>So far, the region has not been targeted by the US administration. But their persistent trade surpluses and security arrangements expose them to potentially aggressive measures.</li>
<li>Domestically, political stability has deteriorated in Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia, distracting governments from providing effective leadership in a riskier world.</li>
</ul>


Washington’s apparent disengagement from its European partners is troubling Asian governments who are rethinking their own foreign policy and security strategies.
So far, the region has not been targeted by the US administration. But their persistent trade surpluses and security arrangements expose them to potentially aggressive measures.
Domestically, political stability has deteriorated in Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia, distracting governments from providing effective leadership in a riskier world.


Abroad and at Home, Asian Politics Set For a Tough Ride Ahead

<ul>
<li>Recent reports that the Indonesian middle class has shrunk should not have come as a surprise, given long-running sluggishness in household consumption and poverty.  </li>
<li>The problem goes beyond the pandemic dislocations: misguided reliance on extractive commodities sectors and a restrictive stance on foreign investments are primary culprits.</li>
<li>Further squeezes on the middle class jeopardize Indonesia’s economic and political stability. Unfortunately, the government shows little sign of making the needed pivots.</li>
</ul>


Recent reports that the Indonesian middle class has shrunk should not have come as a surprise, given long-running sluggishness in household consumption and poverty.  
The problem goes beyond the pandemic dislocations: misguided reliance on extractive commodities sectors and a restrictive stance on foreign investments are primary culprits.
Further squeezes on the middle class jeopardize Indonesia’s economic and political stability. Unfortunately, the government shows little sign of making the needed pivots.


Indonesia’s Middle-Class Squeeze a Long Time Coming

<ul>
<li>The latest policy signals show that Beijing is more serious about boosting consumer demand. But these still fall short of the much-needed rebalancing of the economy from investment towards consumption.</li>
<li>Promised support should  maintain growth this year but Beijing’s reluctance to go further probably stems from the need to keep its fiscal powder dry, given the uncertainty emanating from Washington.</li>
<li>Better-Than-Expected economic data would have validated its cautious approach. Yet, given continued patches of persistent weaknesses, the costs of inaction will grow</li>
</ul>


The latest policy signals show that Beijing is more serious about boosting consumer demand. But these still fall short of the much-needed rebalancing of the economy from investment towards consumption.
Promised support should  maintain growth this year but Beijing’s reluctance to go further probably stems from the need to keep its fiscal powder dry, given the uncertainty emanating from Washington.
Better-Than-Expected economic data would have validated its cautious approach. Yet, given continued patches of persistent weaknesses, the costs of inaction will grow


Beijing’s Ramped-Up Policy Support May Not Deliver Sufficiently

<ul>
<li>Sticky spending pressures and the property slump's drag on public revenues mean that the region's return to pre-pandemic surpluses remains elusive. </li>
<li>The deficits, however, are symptoms of the region relying on a growth playbook that may no longer be viable, given the changing nature of Hong Kong’s economic position</li>
<li>With the rest of the world becoming less inclined to treat Hong Kong differently from mainland China, the government’s failure to uphold its “second system” may prove costly.</li>
</ul>


Sticky spending pressures and the property slump's drag on public revenues mean that the region's return to pre-pandemic surpluses remains elusive. 
The deficits, however, are symptoms of the region relying on a growth playbook that may no longer be viable, given the changing nature of Hong Kong’s economic position
With the rest of the world becoming less inclined to treat Hong Kong differently from mainland China, the government’s failure to uphold its “second system” may prove costly.


Hong Kong Economics: Challenges Go Beyond Stubborn Deficits

<ul>
<li>While America’s restrictions threaten the global trading order, China’s outdated, export-reliant model is culpable, too. In exporting its overcapacity, China behaves like a small, open economy, but it is not.</li>
<li>Given its size, China’s export surges produce outsized effects, triggering protectionist responses. China’s friends in the Global South are scrambling to defend their domestic industries, and not just the  West.</li>
<li>Until China finds a way to recycle its surpluses into investments in other countries, trading partners will suffer the downsides of import competition without any offsets, thus worsening trade tensions.</li>
</ul>


While America’s restrictions threaten the global trading order, China’s outdated, export-reliant model is culpable, too. In exporting its overcapacity, China behaves like a small, open economy, but it is not.
Given its size, China’s export surges produce outsized effects, triggering protectionist responses. China’s friends in the Global South are scrambling to defend their domestic industries, and not just the  West.
Until China finds a way to recycle its surpluses into investments in other countries, trading partners will suffer the downsides of import competition without any offsets, thus worsening trade tensions.


The Other Risk to World Trade: China’s Mercantilism

Centennial Asia Advisors
Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Abroad and at Home, Asian Politics Set For a Tough Ride Ahead

US disengagement is causing concern in Asia, prompting allies to rethink foreign policy and security strategies. Domestic political instability...

Manu Bhaskaran

Indonesia’s Middle-Class Squeeze a Long Time Coming

Indonesia's shrinking middle class stems from stubborn economic woes, including reliance on extractive industries and restrictive FDI policies,...

Manu Bhaskaran

Beijing’s Ramped-Up Policy Support May Not Deliver Sufficiently

Beijing raises support for consumer demand, but more is needed to rebalance economy. Besides likely underappreciation of headwinds, uncertainty...

Manu Bhaskaran

Hong Kong Economics: Challenges Go Beyond Stubborn Deficits

Hong Kong's difficulty in returning to pre-pandemic budget surpluses are a symptom of an outdated growth model that no longer works in the new...

Manu Bhaskaran

The Other Risk to World Trade: China’s Mercantilism

America's restrictions threaten global trading order, but China's export-reliant model also contributes to protectionist responses, impacting...

Manu Bhaskaran

Abroad and at Home, Asian Politics Set For a Tough Ride Ahead

​US disengagement is causing concern in Asia, prompting allies to rethink foreign policy and security strategies. Domestic political instability...

Manu Bhaskaran

Indonesia’s Middle-Class Squeeze a Long Time Coming

​Indonesia's shrinking middle class stems from stubborn economic woes, including reliance on extractive industries and restrictive FDI policies,...

Manu Bhaskaran

Beijing’s Ramped-Up Policy Support May Not Deliver Sufficiently

​Beijing raises support for consumer demand, but more is needed to rebalance economy. Besides likely underappreciation of headwinds, uncertainty...

Manu Bhaskaran

Hong Kong Economics: Challenges Go Beyond Stubborn Deficits

Hong Kong's difficulty in returning to pre-pandemic budget surpluses are a symptom of an outdated growth model that no longer works in the new...

Manu Bhaskaran

The Other Risk to World Trade: China’s Mercantilism

​America's restrictions threaten global trading order, but China's export-reliant model also contributes to protectionist responses, impacting...

Manu Bhaskaran

US disengagement is causing concern in Asia, prompting allies to rethink foreign policy and security strategies. Domestic political instability...

Indonesia's shrinking middle class stems from stubborn economic woes, including reliance on extractive industries and restrictive FDI policies,...

Beijing raises support for consumer demand, but more is needed to rebalance economy. Besides likely underappreciation of headwinds, uncertainty...

America's restrictions threaten global trading order, but China's export-reliant model also contributes to protectionist responses, impacting...