Director, Sentiment Matters

Lars Kreckel

Director

The mood of the market, mapped and decoded

Sentiment Matters

Investor sentiment is the overall mood of investors - how bullish or bearish they are on a market or asset.

Sentiment is part of every investor’s investment process. Whether for macro investors, stock pickers, or thematic investors, it matters whether a position is consensus or contrarian.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
Buy Side Sentiment Tracker: we aggregate asset-allocation views from 54 top asset managers across 73 assets, based on 1,400+ individual views.</li>
<li>
Bullish, but not extreme: Risk appetite is high and rising, yet equity downgrades and resilient sovereign demand show the Buy Side is far from universally risk-on.</li>
<li>
Max Contrarian: Infrastructure, Industrial Metals and Gold are most popular; Swiss Franc, Cash and Consumer Staples are least popular.</li>
</ul>



Buy Side Sentiment Tracker: we aggregate asset-allocation views from 54 top asset managers across 73 assets, based on 1,400+ individual views.

Bullish, but not extreme: Risk appetite is high and rising, yet equity downgrades and resilient sovereign demand show the Buy Side is far from universally risk-on.

Max Contrarian: Infrastructure, Industrial Metals and Gold are most popular; Swiss Franc, Cash and Consumer Staples are least popular.


Sentiment Matters: Buy Side Sentiment Tracker - October 2026

<ul>
<li>
Treasuries Sentiment has turned sharply bearish, but not extreme. The SMA sits around the 30th percentile, still above its historical buy threshold.</li>
<li>
The underlying picture is mixed. Momentum and some speculative positioning are very bearish, while buy-side sentiment, options, analyst expectations and flows remain closer to neutral.</li>
<li>
This is not broad capitulation. Price action has been persistently poor rather than disorderly, leaving room for sentiment to deteriorate further before a stronger contrarian signal emerges.</li>
</ul>



Treasuries Sentiment has turned sharply bearish, but not extreme. The SMA sits around the 30th percentile, still above its historical buy threshold.

The underlying picture is mixed. Momentum and some speculative positioning are very bearish, while buy-side sentiment, options, analyst expectations and flows remain closer to neutral.

This is not broad capitulation. Price action has been persistently poor rather than disorderly, leaving room for sentiment to deteriorate further before a stronger contrarian signal emerges.


Sentiment Matters: US Treasuries Bearish, But Not Capitulation

<ul>
<li>
Where is the market most crowded — and where could the consensus be most vulnerable? This note uses our cross-asset sentiment rankings to find out.</li>
<li>
Technology, Industrial Metals and Energy remain among the strongest consensus longs, with bullish sentiment elevated enough to raise the hurdle for further positive surprises.</li>
<li>
Health Care and High Yield sit near the bearish end of the ranking, but Health Care offers the cleaner contrarian setup given broader and more extreme pessimism.</li>
</ul>



Where is the market most crowded — and where could the consensus be most vulnerable? This note uses our cross-asset sentiment rankings to find out.

Technology, Industrial Metals and Energy remain among the strongest consensus longs, with bullish sentiment elevated enough to raise the hurdle for further positive surprises.

Health Care and High Yield sit near the bearish end of the ranking, but Health Care offers the cleaner contrarian setup given broader and more extreme pessimism.


Sentiment Matters: The Biggest Consensus Longs and Shorts

<ul>
<li>
 Sentiment: the froth is gone. Investor sentiment has cooled sharply and is now, at most, moderately bullish.</li>
<li>
 Technology SMA near all-time highs. Sentiment is close to all-time highs. Not an immediate sell signal, but a reason to test the Tech case and make sure conviction remains high.</li>
<li>
 Gold: getting hot again. Bullish sentiment is building again across indicators, pushing our SMA back to the 96th percentile. Not quite at recent extremes, but close.</li>
</ul>



 Sentiment: the froth is gone. Investor sentiment has cooled sharply and is now, at most, moderately bullish.

 Technology SMA near all-time highs. Sentiment is close to all-time highs. Not an immediate sell signal, but a reason to test the Tech case and make sure conviction remains high.

 Gold: getting hot again. Bullish sentiment is building again across indicators, pushing our SMA back to the 96th percentile. Not quite at recent extremes, but close.


<ul>
<li>We aggregate the published asset-allocation views of more than 50 asset managers across 70+ assets, highlighting where buy-side consensus is building or breaking down.</li>
<li>Risk appetite: Four of five RoRo indicators rose, taking the aggregate to the third-highest level in Tracker history, while equity sentiment hit a record +81% net bullish.</li>
<li>Still not all-in: EM equities, Tech and EM FX are very popular, but safe-haven positioning is less extreme; the Swiss franc is the least popular asset at -46% net bearish.</li>
</ul>


We aggregate the published asset-allocation views of more than 50 asset managers across 70+ assets, highlighting where buy-side consensus is building or breaking down.
Risk appetite: Four of five RoRo indicators rose, taking the aggregate to the third-highest level in Tracker history, while equity sentiment hit a record +81% net bullish.
Still not all-in: EM equities, Tech and EM FX are very popular, but safe-haven positioning is less extreme; the Swiss franc is the least popular asset at -46% net bearish.


Sentiment Matters: Buy Side Sentiment Tracker

Sentiment Matters
The mood of the market, mapped and decoded

Sentiment Matters: Buy Side Sentiment Tracker - October 2026

Buy-side sentiment is bullish and still rising, but not universally risk-on. Infrastructure, Industrial Metals and Gold lead; Swiss Franc, Cash and...

Lars Kreckel

Sentiment Matters: US Treasuries Bearish, But Not Capitulation

Treasury sentiment has fallen sharply, but not to capitulation. The SMA is around the 30th percentile, with momentum very weak but broader...

Lars Kreckel

Sentiment Matters: The Biggest Consensus Longs and Shorts

A cross-asset look at today’s strongest consensus longs and shorts — where sentiment is most one-sided, expectations most stretched and contrarian...

Lars Kreckel

Sentiment Matters: Heatmap Update

Sentiment has cooled from August extremes, but remains moderately bullish. Beneath the surface, Tech and Gold are close to sentiment extremes,...

Lars Kreckel

Sentiment Matters: Buy Side Sentiment Tracker

The Buy Side Sentiment Tracker shows risk appetite near record highs, with equities extremely popular, but safe-haven positioning still less...

Lars Kreckel