Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Founder & Head of Research

Fortress Hill Advisors

Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.

Premium Economic & Investment Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>By surprises on Monday, China cut the one-year Loan Prime Rate by 10 basis points to 3.35%,  while the five-year LPR was reduced by the same margin to 3.85%.</li>
<li>Afterwards PBOC cuts its Medium Term Facility (MLF) on Thursday to 2.30%, down 20 basis points from its previous MLF loan, its largest cut since April 2020.</li>
<li>The rate cuts this time carries more information than previous cuts as in the past, MLF changes usually precede rather than follow the LPR cuts.</li>
</ul>


By surprises on Monday, China cut the one-year Loan Prime Rate by 10 basis points to 3.35%,  while the five-year LPR was reduced by the same margin to 3.85%.
Afterwards PBOC cuts its Medium Term Facility (MLF) on Thursday to 2.30%, down 20 basis points from its previous MLF loan, its largest cut since April 2020.
The rate cuts this time carries more information than previous cuts as in the past, MLF changes usually precede rather than follow the LPR cuts.


PBOC's Surprise Rate Cuts on 22 July 2024

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> defied gravity and kept rallying higher for the past 8 weeks. According to our models it's massively OVERBOUGHT and has been so for a while.</li>
<li>While many other Asian markets have pulled back decisively, the NIFTY is just going higher and higher. </li>
<li>Assuming it has its own uncorrelated drivers, where would it be a BUY again, if it pulls back this coming week? Let's discuss this in this WEEKLY insight.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index defied gravity and kept rallying higher for the past 8 weeks. According to our models it's massively OVERBOUGHT and has been so for a while.
While many other Asian markets have pulled back decisively, the NIFTY is just going higher and higher. 
Assuming it has its own uncorrelated drivers, where would it be a BUY again, if it pulls back this coming week? Let's discuss this in this WEEKLY insight.


EQD | WHAT IF The NIFTY Starts to Pullback This Week?

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>Are we witnessing a short-term carry-trade unwind or trend change?</li>
<li>JPY's strength and overall market weakness continue to go hand in hand.</li>
<li>Any near-term bounce  be used to reduce exposure in certain sectors</li>
</ul>


Are we witnessing a short-term carry-trade unwind or trend change?
JPY's strength and overall market weakness continue to go hand in hand.
Any near-term bounce  be used to reduce exposure in certain sectors


Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 1

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China's debt markets are experiencing an historic bull cycle as government and companies take advantage by ramping up issuances this year.  </li>
<li>Beijing will use its healthy balance sheet and continued debt issuance to clean up local government debt and simultaneously address the property sector problems.</li>
<li>China's healthy external position will provide continued support for its currency and debt markets with equity markets to follow in the coming months.</li>
</ul>


China's debt markets are experiencing an historic bull cycle as government and companies take advantage by ramping up issuances this year.  
Beijing will use its healthy balance sheet and continued debt issuance to clean up local government debt and simultaneously address the property sector problems.
China's healthy external position will provide continued support for its currency and debt markets with equity markets to follow in the coming months.


CHINA: When Will Stocks Catch Up With Surging Debt Markets?

<ul>
<li>Uncertainty over income and employment, adverse wealth effects from lower house prices, plus growing risk aversion, will likely mean that consumption continues to struggle.</li>
<li>We forecast slower H2 GDP growth and look for 4% in 2025.</li>
<li>Sluggish China retail sales/negative auto sales and price cuts for luxury goods suggest that China consumption is struggling.</li>
</ul>


Uncertainty over income and employment, adverse wealth effects from lower house prices, plus growing risk aversion, will likely mean that consumption continues to struggle.
We forecast slower H2 GDP growth and look for 4% in 2025.
Sluggish China retail sales/negative auto sales and price cuts for luxury goods suggest that China consumption is struggling.


China: Struggling Middle Class and Bottom 50%

PBOC's Surprise Rate Cuts on 22 July 2024

China surprises with rate cuts: 1-year LPR and 5-year LPR each down by 10bps. PBOC follows with largest MLF cut since April 2020 by 20bps. The...

Alex Ng

EQD | WHAT IF The NIFTY Starts to Pullback This Week?

The NIFTY Index continues to rally, despite being massively overbought. Which is the right support price area to buy, if the index suddenly pulls...

Nico Rosti

Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 1

In summary, reduce weightings in Japan and large-cap tech on any bounce, and watch junk bond spreads for any signal that a larger correction will...

Rikki Malik

CHINA: When Will Stocks Catch Up With Surging Debt Markets?

The PBOC cut the 1YR MLF rate and 7 day Reverse Rep (the new benchmark rate) while commercial banks cut their 1 year and 5 year LPR's. ...

David Mudd

China: Struggling Middle Class and Bottom 50%

Uncertainty in income and employment, along with lower house prices, risk aversion, and sluggish retail sales in China, will likely lead to...

Alex Ng

PBOC's Surprise Rate Cuts on 22 July 2024

​China surprises with rate cuts: 1-year LPR and 5-year LPR each down by 10bps. PBOC follows with largest MLF cut since April 2020 by 20bps. The...

Alex Ng

EQD | WHAT IF The NIFTY Starts to Pullback This Week?

​The NIFTY Index continues to rally, despite being massively overbought. Which is the right support price area to buy, if the index suddenly pulls...

Nico Rosti

Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 1

In summary, reduce weightings in Japan and large-cap tech on any bounce, and watch junk bond spreads for any signal that a larger correction will...

Rikki Malik

CHINA: When Will Stocks Catch Up With Surging Debt Markets?

The PBOC cut the 1YR MLF rate and 7 day Reverse Rep (the new benchmark rate) while commercial banks cut their 1 year and 5 year LPR's. ...

David Mudd

China: Struggling Middle Class and Bottom 50%

​Uncertainty in income and employment, along with lower house prices, risk aversion, and sluggish retail sales in China, will likely lead to...

Alex Ng

China surprises with rate cuts: 1-year LPR and 5-year LPR each down by 10bps. PBOC follows with largest MLF cut since April 2020 by 20bps. The...

The NIFTY Index continues to rally, despite being massively overbought. Which is the right support price area to buy, if the index suddenly pulls...

Uncertainty in income and employment, along with lower house prices, risk aversion, and sluggish retail sales in China, will likely lead to...