Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a></strong> announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.</li>
<li>In its October <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/2025/107757/documents/sehk25100202720.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">application proof</a>, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25.  The market <em>was</em> implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It's now ~1.2x.</li>
<li>Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.
In its October application proof, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25.  The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It's now ~1.2x.
Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x. 


Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aspen-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20680:1" rel="noopener">Aspen Group (APZ AU)</a> will be added to a global sector index at the close 19 December. The stock is also a potential inclusion to a global index in March.</li>
<li>Estimated passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aspen-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20680:1" rel="noopener">Aspen Group (APZ AU)</a> is U$21m and positioning in the stock could continue to build in the next few days.</li>
<li>Positioning in the stock has been increasing over the last few months with a jump that started at the beginning of November.</li>
</ul>



Aspen Group (APZ AU) will be added to a global sector index at the close 19 December. The stock is also a potential inclusion to a global index in March.
Estimated passive buying in Aspen Group (APZ AU) is U$21m and positioning in the stock could continue to build in the next few days.
Positioning in the stock has been increasing over the last few months with a jump that started at the beginning of November.


Aspen Group (APZ AU): Global Sector Index Inclusion

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Three main reasons why SK Inc is our high conviction in 2026 include mandatory cancellation of treasury shares, deep discount to NAV, and the end of divorce for Chairman Chey. </li>
<li>SK Inc has 17.98 million shares in treasury, representing 24.8% of outstanding shares. Among the stocks included in KOSPI200, this is one of the highest percentage of treasury shares.</li>
<li>Our NAV valuation analysis suggests NAV of 28 trillion won or NAV per share of 386,469 won. This represents a 46% upside to its current price.</li>
</ul>


Three main reasons why SK Inc is our high conviction in 2026 include mandatory cancellation of treasury shares, deep discount to NAV, and the end of divorce for Chairman Chey. 
SK Inc has 17.98 million shares in treasury, representing 24.8% of outstanding shares. Among the stocks included in KOSPI200, this is one of the highest percentage of treasury shares.
Our NAV valuation analysis suggests NAV of 28 trillion won or NAV per share of 386,469 won. This represents a 46% upside to its current price.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The consortium has decided NOT to exercise its right to increase the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a> share alternative cap from 5.00% to 7.50% of outstanding shares. </li>
<li>The positive read-across is that it signals the consortium’s confidence that the vote will pass, as reflected in the quick decision not to lift the cap (deadline was 12 December). </li>
<li>The negative readacross is that shareholders requesting the scrip option likely exceeded the 7.5% upper threshold, and the consortium is hoping that these shareholders will instead take the mix option.</li>
</ul>


The consortium has decided NOT to exercise its right to increase the ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) share alternative cap from 5.00% to 7.50% of outstanding shares. 
The positive read-across is that it signals the consortium’s confidence that the vote will pass, as reflected in the quick decision not to lift the cap (deadline was 12 December). 
The negative readacross is that shareholders requesting the scrip option likely exceeded the 7.5% upper threshold, and the consortium is hoping that these shareholders will instead take the mix option.


ANE (9956 HK): Tempting Fate Through an Unchanged Share Alternative Cap?

Travis Lundy

Equity Capital Markets

SBI Shinsei Bank / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> IPO is due to be priced on 8 December and start trading on 17 December 2025.</li>
<li>I have been reluctant to write because of my general lack of excitement regarding the IPO and its after-market prospects. It is, as a friend says, "neither here nor there."</li>
<li>But as the bank was my High Conviction Long trade for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2021-high-conviction-shinsei-bank" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2021</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2022-high-conviction-shinsei-bank" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2022</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2023-high-conviction-sbi-shinsei-bank-8303-jp-still-reading-between-the-lines" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2023</a> and I wrote about the events in the interim, I thought I should opine.</li>
</ul>


The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO is due to be priced on 8 December and start trading on 17 December 2025.
I have been reluctant to write because of my general lack of excitement regarding the IPO and its after-market prospects. It is, as a friend says, "neither here nor there."
But as the bank was my High Conviction Long trade for 2021, 2022, and 2023 and I wrote about the events in the interim, I thought I should opine.


[Japan IPO] The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO; Cosmetically Pretty, Otherwise Meh

Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

There's been a lot of enthusiasm for HK spin-offs of late, such as Zijin Mining and MINISO. I'm not convinced Dongfeng Motor deserves similar...

David Blennerhassett

Aspen Group (APZ AU): Global Sector Index Inclusion

Aspen Group will be added to a global sector index this month. Then there could be a global index inclusion in March. Positioning has increased but...

Brian Freitas

2026 High Conviction Idea: SK Inc

Three main reasons why SK Inc is our high conviction in 2026 include mandatory cancellation of treasury shares, deep discount to NAV, and the end...

Douglas Kim

[Japan IPO] The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO; Cosmetically Pretty, Otherwise Meh

The SBI Shinsei Bank IPO at north of book comes only 2 years post-squeezeout at half of book. It was a big trade for SBI but they need to sell...

Travis Lundy

Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

There's been a lot of enthusiasm for HK spin-offs of late, such as Zijin Mining and MINISO. I'm not convinced Dongfeng Motor deserves similar...

David Blennerhassett

Aspen Group (APZ AU): Global Sector Index Inclusion

Aspen Group will be added to a global sector index this month. Then there could be a global index inclusion in March. Positioning has increased but...

Brian Freitas

2026 High Conviction Idea: SK Inc

Three main reasons why SK Inc is our high conviction in 2026 include mandatory cancellation of treasury shares, deep discount to NAV, and the end...

Douglas Kim

ANE (9956 HK): Tempting Fate Through an Unchanged Share Alternative Cap?

The potential negative read-across from an unchanged share cap and uncertainty regarding CDH's stake have lowered my conviction. Safety first is...

Arun George

[Japan IPO] The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO; Cosmetically Pretty, Otherwise Meh

The SBI Shinsei Bank IPO at north of book comes only 2 years post-squeezeout at half of book. It was a big trade for SBI but they need to sell...

Travis Lundy