Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP (BHP AU)</a></strong>'s all-scrip <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240426/pdf/062w455d52h3cv.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">unsolicited Offer</a> for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anglo-american-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21798:1" rel="noopener">Anglo American (AAL LN)</a></strong>, zeroes in on AAL's copper assets as demand for the metal increases for use in EVs and renewable power.</li>
<li>The proposal has been labelled highly opportunistic by some shareholders and South African politicians. And that the value of AAL's Chilian/Peruvian copper mines are obscured by its sprawling business interests.</li>
<li>The Offer remains conditional and non-binding. A transaction hinges off AAL spinning off its South African iron ore and platinum businesses. Expect AAL to reject terms, but remain engaged. </li>
</ul>



BHP (BHP AU)'s all-scrip unsolicited Offer for Anglo American (AAL LN), zeroes in on AAL's copper assets as demand for the metal increases for use in EVs and renewable power.
The proposal has been labelled highly opportunistic by some shareholders and South African politicians. And that the value of AAL's Chilian/Peruvian copper mines are obscured by its sprawling business interests.
The Offer remains conditional and non-binding. A transaction hinges off AAL spinning off its South African iron ore and platinum businesses. Expect AAL to reject terms, but remain engaged. 


BHP/Anglo American: A Decarbonising Solution

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Originally, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brother-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6114:1" rel="noopener">Brother Industries (6448 JP)</a> wanted to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/roland-dg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10653:1" rel="noopener">Roland DG Corp (6789 JP)</a>.  Roland invited others to bid, didn't tell Brother, then said Taiyo Pacific's ¥5,035 bid won.</li>
<li>That was low. Weeks later, Brother lobbed a ¥5,200 overbid. They are going through the approvals process but it isn't clear Brother is negotiating.</li>
<li>Taiyo has extended and extended and shown up in interviews. Now it has overbid at ¥5,370.</li>
</ul>


Originally, Brother Industries (6448 JP) wanted to buy Roland DG Corp (6789 JP).  Roland invited others to bid, didn't tell Brother, then said Taiyo Pacific's ¥5,035 bid won.
That was low. Weeks later, Brother lobbed a ¥5,200 overbid. They are going through the approvals process but it isn't clear Brother is negotiating.
Taiyo has extended and extended and shown up in interviews. Now it has overbid at ¥5,370.


Taiyo Pacific Overbids Brother for Roland DG (6789)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>With three-quarters of the review period complete, there could be a bunch of changes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in June.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/red-5-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7940:1" rel="noopener">Red 5 Ltd (RED AU)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silver-lake-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6529:1" rel="noopener">Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU)</a> merger could lead to an ad hoc change prior to the implementation of the June rebalance.</li>
<li>There will be 1.6-25 days of ADV to buy from passives in the inclusions while the impact on the deletions will range between 0.8-11 days of ADV.</li>
</ul>


With three-quarters of the review period complete, there could be a bunch of changes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in June.
The Red 5 Ltd (RED AU) / Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU) merger could lead to an ad hoc change prior to the implementation of the June rebalance.
There will be 1.6-25 days of ADV to buy from passives in the inclusions while the impact on the deletions will range between 0.8-11 days of ADV.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to June

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

Eagle Nice (Intl) Hldgs / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Eagle Nice International Holdings' dividend yield averaged 9.2% from FY 2019 to FY 2023. Its annual dividend payout averaged 72.2% in the same period.</li>
<li>Eagle Nice (Intl) Hldgs is mainly engaged in the design and manufacture of sportswear for adults and children on an OEM basis. Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings is the largest shareholder.</li>
<li>Eagle Nice Holdings also has attractive valuations and consistent growth in sales and profits. </li>
</ul>


Eagle Nice International Holdings' dividend yield averaged 9.2% from FY 2019 to FY 2023. Its annual dividend payout averaged 72.2% in the same period.
Eagle Nice (Intl) Hldgs is mainly engaged in the design and manufacture of sportswear for adults and children on an OEM basis. Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings is the largest shareholder.
Eagle Nice Holdings also has attractive valuations and consistent growth in sales and profits. 


Asian Dividend Gems: Eagle Nice International Holdings

<ul>
<li>There are a bunch of stocks that have underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in May.</li>
<li>The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of May where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.</li>
<li>Shorts have been built up on all the stocks over the last few months and the extent of the positioning varies across stocks.</li>
</ul>


There are a bunch of stocks that have underperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in May.
The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of May where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
Shorts have been built up on all the stocks over the last few months and the extent of the positioning varies across stocks.


Japan - Increase in Shorts & Potential Passive Selling in May

BHP/Anglo American: A Decarbonising Solution

I would expect AAL to reject terms; but remain engaged. I'd expect BHP to fump. For that, the near term trade is probably to still be short BHP,...

David Blennerhassett

Taiyo Pacific Overbids Brother for Roland DG (6789)

Taiyo has overbid Brother's overbid of Taiyo's original bid for Roland DG. Roland has re-recommended. "Dis-synergies" has more consideration behind...

Travis Lundy

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to June

Performance has been mixed across the various indices but could start moving the right way as we near the end of the review period and there is...

Brian Freitas

Asian Dividend Gems: Eagle Nice International Holdings

Eagle Nice (Intl) Hldgs is mainly engaged in the design and manufacture of sportswear for adults and children on an OEM basis. Yue Yuen Industrial...

Douglas Kim

Japan - Increase in Shorts & Potential Passive Selling in May

There are a bunch of stocks in Japan that could be sold by passive global investors in May. Shorts have increased on all stocks and the extent of...

Brian Freitas

BHP/Anglo American: A Decarbonising Solution

I would expect AAL to reject terms; but remain engaged. I'd expect BHP to fump. For that, the near term trade is probably to still be short BHP,...

David Blennerhassett

Taiyo Pacific Overbids Brother for Roland DG (6789)

Taiyo has overbid Brother's overbid of Taiyo's original bid for Roland DG. Roland has re-recommended. "Dis-synergies" has more consideration behind...

Travis Lundy

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to June

Performance has been mixed across the various indices but could start moving the right way as we near the end of the review period and there is...

Brian Freitas

Asian Dividend Gems: Eagle Nice International Holdings

Eagle Nice (Intl) Hldgs is mainly engaged in the design and manufacture of sportswear for adults and children on an OEM basis. Yue Yuen Industrial...

Douglas Kim

Japan - Increase in Shorts & Potential Passive Selling in May

There are a bunch of stocks in Japan that could be sold by passive global investors in May. Shorts have increased on all stocks and the extent of...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to June