Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 5 additions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in December. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> is a surprise add (as are some of the others).</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 15.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index has just passed its earlier highs, but a lot of the adds have broken out and are trading much higher than their prior highs.</li>
</ul>


There are 5 additions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in December. Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a surprise add (as are some of the others).
Estimated one-way turnover is 15.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index has just passed its earlier highs, but a lot of the adds have broken out and are trading much higher than their prior highs.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Goldman Sachs will take Raksul private via a ~¥100bn MBO, restoring meaningful governance influence to the founder—one of the most explicitly founder-aligned take-privates in Japan’s tech sector.</li>
<li>Public markets consistently undervalued Raksul’s multi-vertical SME platform; going private enables longer-horizon investment, selective M&amp;A, and disciplined scaling across printing, logistics, marketing tech, and adjacent digital services.</li>
<li>Deal completion probability is high (90–95%): a fair premium, full founder support, and limited interloper risk leave minority shareholders best served by tendering into the offer.</li>
</ul>


Goldman Sachs will take Raksul private via a ~¥100bn MBO, restoring meaningful governance influence to the founder—one of the most explicitly founder-aligned take-privates in Japan’s tech sector.
Public markets consistently undervalued Raksul’s multi-vertical SME platform; going private enables longer-horizon investment, selective M&amp;A, and disciplined scaling across printing, logistics, marketing tech, and adjacent digital services.
Deal completion probability is high (90–95%): a fair premium, full founder support, and limited interloper risk leave minority shareholders best served by tendering into the offer.


Raksul (4384 JP): Goldman-Backed Founder MBO Highlights Japan’s New Tech Take-Private Cycle

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinke-smart-services-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29214:1" rel="noopener">Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)</a>’s revised composite document relating to Boyu’s enhanced offer of HK$8.69 will be despatched on 9 December. The delisting EGM is on 24 December.</li>
<li>The enhanced offer is conditional on the shareholders’ approval of the delisting resolution (low risk) and the 90% minimum acceptance condition from disinterested shareholders (high risk).</li>
<li>Acceptances have not budged since 18 November, which explains Boyu’s introduction of two acceptance options on 4 December. The 90% minimum acceptance condition remains problematic. </li>
</ul>



Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)’s revised composite document relating to Boyu’s enhanced offer of HK$8.69 will be despatched on 9 December. The delisting EGM is on 24 December.
The enhanced offer is conditional on the shareholders’ approval of the delisting resolution (low risk) and the 90% minimum acceptance condition from disinterested shareholders (high risk).
Acceptances have not budged since 18 November, which explains Boyu’s introduction of two acceptance options on 4 December. The 90% minimum acceptance condition remains problematic. 


Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK): Delisting EGM on 24 December as Acceptances Remain Unchanged

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a> and Carlyle have announced the Tender Offer at ¥6700, mooted by the Nikkei and confirmed by Hogy the other day.</li>
<li>The big activist Dalton Group with 27+% has agreed to tender, but has also agreed to buy back into Bidco, owning 20%. </li>
<li>When the activist pushing for a deal decides not to sell, and instead to continue owning, the price is probably a bit light for everyone else, but this gets done.</li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP) and Carlyle have announced the Tender Offer at ¥6700, mooted by the Nikkei and confirmed by Hogy the other day.
The big activist Dalton Group with 27+% has agreed to tender, but has also agreed to buy back into Bidco, owning 20%. 
When the activist pushing for a deal decides not to sell, and instead to continue owning, the price is probably a bit light for everyone else, but this gets done.


[Japan M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Carlyle Launches Their TOB at ¥6700, Dalton Agrees But Buys Back In

Smartkarma AI, Smartkarma

αSK

Smartkarma AI

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

GigaDevice Semiconductor  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>GigaDevice is a leading Chinese fabless semiconductor company, holding a dominant position in the domestic SPI NOR Flash market and rapidly expanding its presence in the microcontroller (MCU) sector.</li>
<li>The company is a key beneficiary of China's strategic push for semiconductor self-sufficiency, which provides a long-term tailwind for domestic market share gains across its product lines.</li>
<li>While demonstrating strong long-term growth, the company faces significant risks from the inherent cyclicality of the semiconductor industry, intense global competition, and geopolitical tensions between the US and China.</li>
</ul>
<p><em>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.</em></p>


GigaDevice is a leading Chinese fabless semiconductor company, holding a dominant position in the domestic SPI NOR Flash market and rapidly expanding its presence in the microcontroller (MCU) sector.
The company is a key beneficiary of China's strategic push for semiconductor self-sufficiency, which provides a long-term tailwind for domestic market share gains across its product lines.
While demonstrating strong long-term growth, the company faces significant risks from the inherent cyclicality of the semiconductor industry, intense global competition, and geopolitical tensions between the US and China.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: GigaDevice Semiconductor  (603986 CH) - Dec 2025

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added

The flows have changed following the non-inclusion of Zijin Gold in the index. With cornerstones locked up till end-March, Zijin Gold will not be...

Brian Freitas

Raksul (4384 JP): Goldman-Backed Founder MBO Highlights Japan’s New Tech Take-Private Cycle

At ¥1,950, Raksul has shifted from arb to a governance squeeze: A14% negative spread shows investors are paying for a bump, not ¥1,710 certainty....

Rahul Jain

Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK): Delisting EGM on 24 December as Acceptances Remain Unchanged

Boyu has announced additional irrevocables (51.0m or 8.55% of out shares) to accept the revised offer (option A). Total irrevocables are 108m or...

Arun George

[Japan M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Carlyle Launches Their TOB at ¥6700, Dalton Agrees But Buys Back In

Carlyle deal for Hogy Medical is announced. I had thought ¥6700 high but given the assumptions and the fact that Dalton is joining the back end at...

Travis Lundy

Primer: GigaDevice Semiconductor (603986 CH) - Dec 2025

GigaDevice is a leading Chinese fabless semiconductor company, holding a dominant position in the domestic SPI NOR Flash market and rapidly...

αSK