Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 5 additions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in December. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> is a surprise add (as are some of the others).</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 15.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index has just passed its earlier highs, but a lot of the adds have broken out and are trading much higher than their prior highs.</li>
</ul>


There are 5 additions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in December. Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a surprise add (as are some of the others).
Estimated one-way turnover is 15.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index has just passed its earlier highs, but a lot of the adds have broken out and are trading much higher than their prior highs.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>UK inflation’s 31bps slowing to 3.15% went far further than expected, with significance raised by the substantial extent and the breadth of downside across divisions.</li><li>However, the news was more concentrated at a component level, leaving the median impulse annualising to 2.3%. We still see underlying pressures driving persistent excess.</li><li>The Governor sought confirmation of disinflation before cutting rates again, so this surprise should secure that move in December, without any commitment to do more.</li></ul>

UK inflation’s 31bps slowing to 3.15% went far further than expected, with significance raised by the substantial extent and the breadth of downside across divisions.However, the news was more concentrated at a component level, leaving the median impulse annualising to 2.3%. We still see underlying pressures driving persistent excess.The Governor sought confirmation of disinflation before cutting rates again, so this surprise should secure that move in December, without any commitment to do more.

Taishin Financial Holding / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 8 adds and 8 deletes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in December. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF has an AUM of US$13bn.</li>
<li>The ETF has started trading the stocks and is expected to continue trading for the next 7 trading days.</li>
<li>There are a few surprises and those stocks could outperform peers over the rest of the trading period.</li>
</ul>


There are 8 adds and 8 deletes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in December. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF has an AUM of US$13bn.
The ETF has started trading the stocks and is expected to continue trading for the next 7 trading days.
There are a few surprises and those stocks could outperform peers over the rest of the trading period.


TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$7bn Trade over the Next Week

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 28th October, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman (9956 HK)</a>, a road freight transportation play, announced an Offer from Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, Temasek, and Singapore-based asset manager True Light. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/1217/2025121701246.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Scheme Doc is now out</a>, with a Scheme Meeting on the 9th Jan 2026, and expected payment on the 16th Feb. The IFA (Anglo Chinese) says "fair &amp; reasonable".</li>
<li>Noticeably absent from this Doc is CDH, believed to be in control of ~18% of shares out.  Given precedents with similar fact patterns, this is probably one deal to avoid. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 28th October, ANE Cayman (9956 HK), a road freight transportation play, announced an Offer from Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, Temasek, and Singapore-based asset manager True Light. 

The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 9th Jan 2026, and expected payment on the 16th Feb. The IFA (Anglo Chinese) says "fair &amp; reasonable".
Noticeably absent from this Doc is CDH, believed to be in control of ~18% of shares out.  Given precedents with similar fact patterns, this is probably one deal to avoid. 


ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Shareholder Vote On 9th Jan. No Mention Of CDH In Latest Doc

<ul><li>Another downward food price revision cut HICP inflation back to 2.1% in November, but the effect was only 1.6bp, and services inflation was marginally stronger than before.</li><li>Service prices are not converging on levels consistent with the ECB’s target, and many underlying metrics are too high. The median is a notable exception, broadly below 2%.</li><li>The ECB’s “good place” assessment should be unaffected by any of this, nor the base effects driving things slightly below the target in January. It should sound neutral.</li></ul>

Another downward food price revision cut HICP inflation back to 2.1% in November, but the effect was only 1.6bp, and services inflation was marginally stronger than before.Service prices are not converging on levels consistent with the ECB’s target, and many underlying metrics are too high. The median is a notable exception, broadly below 2%.The ECB’s “good place” assessment should be unaffected by any of this, nor the base effects driving things slightly below the target in January. It should sound neutral.

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added

The flows have changed following the non-inclusion of Zijin Gold in the index. With cornerstones locked up till end-March, Zijin Gold will not be...

Brian Freitas

UK: Christmas CPI Present For Doves

UK inflation’s 31bps slowing to 3.15% went far further than expected, with significance raised by the substantial extent and the breadth of...

Phil Rush

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$7bn Trade over the Next Week

There are 8 adds and 8 deletes for the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 26.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$7bn. There are a few...

Brian Freitas

ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Shareholder Vote On 9th Jan. No Mention Of CDH In Latest Doc

Surprising absence of CDH in this latest Doc. Given the ongoing ambiguity as to who owns/controls what, I'm inclined to sit this one out - for now....

David Blennerhassett

EA: Eating A Disinflationary Revision

Another downward food price revision cut HICP inflation back to 2.1% in November, but the effect was only 1.6bp, and services inflation was...

Phil Rush