Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Nec Networks & System Integr / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Two days before the close of its TOB on subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-networks-system-integr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16396:1" rel="noopener">Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17084:1" rel="noopener">NEC Corp (6701 JP)</a> announced it had no plans to raise the price. </li>
<li>The next day, the second largest shareholder reported a stake increase from 11.68% to 13.12%. That changes the dynamic further, and a change in terms was likely. </li>
<li>Today post-close, NEC extended the Tender Offer by 10 days. It is worthwhile understanding the likely current disposition of shares. </li>
</ul>


Two days before the close of its TOB on subsidiary Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP), NEC Corp (6701 JP) announced it had no plans to raise the price. 
The next day, the second largest shareholder reported a stake increase from 11.68% to 13.12%. That changes the dynamic further, and a change in terms was likely. 
Today post-close, NEC extended the Tender Offer by 10 days. It is worthwhile understanding the likely current disposition of shares. 


NEC Networks (1973 JP) Final Showdown I - Extendy-Extendy, But Not Yet Bumpity Bumpity

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 19 changes a side for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December. All names are exactly in line with our forecast.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 64.9% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 72.7bn (US$857m). There are 18 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The adds have continued to outperform the deletes even after the end of the review period. There could be further upside heading into year-end and implementation of the changes.</li>
</ul>


There are 19 changes a side for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December. All names are exactly in line with our forecast.
Estimated one-way turnover is 64.9% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 72.7bn (US$857m). There are 18 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
The adds have continued to outperform the deletes even after the end of the review period. There could be further upside heading into year-end and implementation of the changes.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 38 Changes; 65% Turnover; US$1.7bn Trade

<ul>
<li>A Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-10/topcon-gets-buyout-offers-from-kkr-eqt-as-japan-m-a-heats-up" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> today said <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topcon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:738:1" rel="noopener">Topcon Corp (7732 JP)</a> is weighing takeover bids received from KKR and EQT. ValueAct has been pressuring the company for 18mos (5+% in May23)</li>
<li>ValueAct has apparently been pushing the company to divest assets and concentrate on core ops, or go private (and have someone else do it). </li>
<li>This is further evidence of the METI-enabled "Bad Cop-Good Cop Routine" which could expand M&amp;A and governance activity dramatically. </li>
</ul>


A Bloomberg article today said Topcon Corp (7732 JP) is weighing takeover bids received from KKR and EQT. ValueAct has been pressuring the company for 18mos (5+% in May23)
ValueAct has apparently been pushing the company to divest assets and concentrate on core ops, or go private (and have someone else do it). 
This is further evidence of the METI-enabled "Bad Cop-Good Cop Routine" which could expand M&amp;A and governance activity dramatically. 


Thinking About Topcon (7732) And the New METI-Enabled Bad Cop-Good Cop Routine

<ul>
<li>Paper manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oji-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11348:1" rel="noopener">Oji Holdings (3861 JP)</a> has spent 25 years not going anywhere. Their current MTMP isn't exciting. And it looks like they will fail worse than last time.</li>
<li>But an activist put their head above the parapet recently, and now the company has announced larger new cross-holding selldown targets, and a big 9% buyback, with a ToSTNeT-3 tomorrow. </li>
<li>The stock is at 0.47x book. They have nearly ¥400bn of financial assets which are non-core. They have land and property holdings. And they have lots of cross-holdings to repurchase.</li>
</ul>


Paper manufacturer Oji Holdings (3861 JP) has spent 25 years not going anywhere. Their current MTMP isn't exciting. And it looks like they will fail worse than last time.
But an activist put their head above the parapet recently, and now the company has announced larger new cross-holding selldown targets, and a big 9% buyback, with a ToSTNeT-3 tomorrow. 
The stock is at 0.47x book. They have nearly ¥400bn of financial assets which are non-core. They have land and property holdings. And they have lots of cross-holdings to repurchase.


Oji Paper (3861 JP) - Big New Buyback After Crossholding Sales And An Activist Peeking From Register

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a> is in a trading halt “<em>pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers which contains inside information of the Company.</em>” </li>
<li>The Yang family is likely seeking to privatise Vesync through a Cayman scheme. The shares are trading 24% below the HK$5.52 IPO price.</li>
<li>We use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a price range of HK$5.09-10.30 per share, with an average of HK$6.71, a 59.8% premium to last close.</li>
</ul>



Vesync (2148 HK) is in a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers which contains inside information of the Company.” 
The Yang family is likely seeking to privatise Vesync through a Cayman scheme. The shares are trading 24% below the HK$5.52 IPO price.
We use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a price range of HK$5.09-10.30 per share, with an average of HK$6.71, a 59.8% premium to last close.


Vesync (2148 HK): The Yang Family to Launch a Privatisation Offer?

NEC Networks (1973 JP) Final Showdown I - Extendy-Extendy, But Not Yet Bumpity Bumpity

After warning they wouldn't pay more and begging holders to tender, NEC today extended their TOB for NEC Networks. There are 3-4 possible outcomes....

Travis Lundy

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 38 Changes; 65% Turnover; US$1.7bn Trade

There are 19 changes a side and all names are in line with our forecast. Estimated one-way turnover is 64.9% resulting in a one-way trade of INR...

Brian Freitas

Thinking About Topcon (7732) And the New METI-Enabled Bad Cop-Good Cop Routine

The METI Guideline on Corporate Takeovers has enabled a BadCop-GoodCop routine to be played out by activists and PE funds. Topcon may be a victim....

Travis Lundy

Oji Paper (3861 JP) - Big New Buyback After Crossholding Sales And An Activist Peeking From Register

Oji Paper announced a higher cross-holding selldown target in Nov24. Yesterday, they announced a big buyback. The stock is <10x EPS and 0.47x book....

Travis Lundy

Vesync (2148 HK): The Yang Family to Launch a Privatisation Offer?

We use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a price range of HK$5.09-10.30 per share, with an average of HK$6.71....

Arun George