Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>On 7 October, Hang Seng announced the conclusions of the market consultation to increase the number of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> constituents from 30 to 50.</li>
<li>While most of the proposals will be implemented as proposed, a liquidity requirement has been tightened, and revenue thresholds have been imposed for companies qualifying through the Sales Growth Stream.</li>
<li>The changes will be implemented in a single step at the December rebalance and that creates a lot of flow for all the index members, current and new.</li>
</ul>


On 7 October, Hang Seng announced the conclusions of the market consultation to increase the number of Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) constituents from 30 to 50.
While most of the proposals will be implemented as proposed, a liquidity requirement has been tightened, and revenue thresholds have been imposed for companies qualifying through the Sales Growth Stream.
The changes will be implemented in a single step at the December rebalance and that creates a lot of flow for all the index members, current and new.


HSTECH Index: Market Consultation Conclusions, Updated Potential Adds & The Borderline Names

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 21st Feb 2025, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a> entered into a Scheme with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals, at A$7.40/share. The wheels fell off the deal shortly afterward.</li>
<li>Cosette issued a "material adverse change" notice concerning a FDA warning/notice (on Nextstellis®) and Mayne's earnings guidance.  The Supreme Court disagreed. Cosette appealed. The Court has now dismissed that appeal.</li>
<li>Cosette's concurrent threat to shut the Salisbury manufacturing plant lead to Treasurer Jim Chalmers blocking the deal last November. Thanks Jim. Absent your intervention, Cosette had no legal out.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 21st Feb 2025, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) entered into a Scheme with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals, at A$7.40/share. The wheels fell off the deal shortly afterward.
Cosette issued a "material adverse change" notice concerning a FDA warning/notice (on Nextstellis®) and Mayne's earnings guidance.  The Supreme Court disagreed. Cosette appealed. The Court has now dismissed that appeal.
Cosette's concurrent threat to shut the Salisbury manufacturing plant lead to Treasurer Jim Chalmers blocking the deal last November. Thanks Jim. Absent your intervention, Cosette had no legal out.


Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): This One's On You Jim As Court Dismisses Cosette's Appeal

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

Zhongji InnoLight / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>We rank repeat cornerstone investors in 144 HK IPOs raising US$100m or more, listed from January 2025 to September 2026, split by investor type.</li>
<li>Our league table statistics show past 2W returns by investor type and for the top investors within each type.</li>
<li>In 9M2026, deals with hedge fund cornerstones underperformed the other four types on median 2W return.</li>
</ul>


We rank repeat cornerstone investors in 144 HK IPOs raising US$100m or more, listed from January 2025 to September 2026, split by investor type.
Our league table statistics show past 2W returns by investor type and for the top investors within each type.
In 9M2026, deals with hedge fund cornerstones underperformed the other four types on median 2W return.


HK IPO Cornerstone Performance League Table (9M2026)

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

<ul>
<li>ChiNext and ChiNext 50, respectively, represent the top 100 and top 50 A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>We expect 7 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event.</li>
<li>With approximately 91% of the review period complete, the rankings have largely stabilized.</li>
</ul>


ChiNext and ChiNext 50, respectively, represent the top 100 and top 50 A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
We expect 7 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event.
With approximately 91% of the review period complete, the rankings have largely stabilized.


Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec26: Expected ADDs Sharply Down Vs Expected DELs

Hanwha Machinery & Service Holdings / Event-Driven

Hanwha Machinery & Service Holdings (0220W0 KS)

<ul>
<li>In August this year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10619:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS)</a> spun off its its distribution, hotel, and food businesses, and robotics and semiconductor equipment businesses, under <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-machinery-service-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:58718:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Machinery &amp; Service (0220W0 KS)</a>.</li>
<li>The Kim family firmly controls HMSH via various entities, the largest stake held via Hanwha Energy (23.69%).</li>
<li>Now Kim Dong-seon (third son of Hanwha Group Chairman Kim Seung-youn) has launched a Tender Offer for 19% in HMSH, elevating his stake to 24.81%. The current spread is attractive.</li>
</ul>


In August this year, Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS) spun off its its distribution, hotel, and food businesses, and robotics and semiconductor equipment businesses, under Hanwha Machinery &amp; Service (0220W0 KS).
The Kim family firmly controls HMSH via various entities, the largest stake held via Hanwha Energy (23.69%).
Now Kim Dong-seon (third son of Hanwha Group Chairman Kim Seung-youn) has launched a Tender Offer for 19% in HMSH, elevating his stake to 24.81%. The current spread is attractive.


Hanwha Machinery & Service (0220W0 KS): Kim's Partial Is Worth A Second Look

HSTECH Index: Market Consultation Conclusions, Updated Potential Adds & The Borderline Names

Introduction/tightening of revenue/liquidity criteria changes the list of potential adds. Estimated one-way turnover at the Dec rebalance is 14.2%...

Brian Freitas

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): This One's On You Jim As Court Dismisses Cosette's Appeal

Mayne is 61% adrift of Cosette's Offer price. Yet, Mayne doesn't scream "buy" here. 5x+ forward EV/EBITDA is ok. The market is expecting EBITDA to...

David Blennerhassett

HK IPO Cornerstone Performance League Table (9M2026)

HK IPO: We rank repeat cornerstone investors by the average 2W return of IPOs they backed. In 9M2026, deals with hedge fund cornerstones...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec26: Expected ADDs Sharply Down Vs Expected DELs

We see US$373mn and US220mn one-way flows for ChiNext and ChiNext 50 respectively. ChiNext expectations are mostly final but ChiNext 50...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Hanwha Machinery & Service (0220W0 KS): Kim's Partial Is Worth A Second Look

HMSH had fallen nearly 40% since its listing, promulgated by foreign investors exiting. Kim Seung-youn is taking advantage of that weakness. I'd...

David Blennerhassett