Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

Haidilao International Holding / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong is now the top-performing major world market this year.  With a large valuation disparity, both Hong Kong's and China's markets have more upside potential.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> are benefiting from the improvement in consumer sentiment with government stimulus targeting housing payments and consumption.
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-securities-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:463:1" rel="noopener">Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK)</a> surged in anticipation of increased market trading and IPOs.  Industry consolidation is also part of the improved sentiment.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong is now the top-performing major world market this year.  With a large valuation disparity, both Hong Kong's and China's markets have more upside potential.

Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK) and Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) are benefiting from the improvement in consumer sentiment with government stimulus targeting housing payments and consumption.

Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK) surged in anticipation of increased market trading and IPOs.  Industry consolidation is also part of the improved sentiment.


The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 27)

<ul>
<li>Asian ETF flows have been subdued during September as markets start to react positively to Fed rate cuts.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a> parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/las-vegas-sands-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:807:1" rel="noopener">Las Vegas Sands (LVS US)</a> continued to increase its stake as Macau tourists rise.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a> is seeing increased China sales.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metallurgical-corporation-of-china-ltd-a8048a44-3f03-4836-916c-1596deef9535" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12762:1" rel="noopener">Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (1618 HK)</a> reported a decrease in new contracts for 1H24. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> early investor sold most of its remaining stake in the company.
</li>
</ul>


Asian ETF flows have been subdued during September as markets start to react positively to Fed rate cuts.

Sands China (1928 HK) parent Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) continued to increase its stake as Macau tourists rise.  Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK) is seeing increased China sales.


Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (1618 HK) reported a decrease in new contracts for 1H24. Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) early investor sold most of its remaining stake in the company.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 20)

Global TMT Analyst, Ex-PM, 30 years experience

Neil Campling

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topsports-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28153" rel="noopener">Topsports International Holdings (6110 HK)</a> miss suggests inventory fire sale ahead. Negative for demand in China, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nike-inc-cl-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6658:1" rel="noopener">Nike (NKE US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> and the whole sector</li>
<li>Chinese consumers aren't buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bayerische-motoren-werke-ag-bmw-72824b26-c157-46b2-bafe-650cb75a091f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21591:1" rel="noopener">Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW) (BMW GR)</a> or going to the Movies</li>
<li>But Americans are still walking in Westerns Boots <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boot-barn-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11647:1" rel="noopener">Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT US)</a> </li>
</ul>



Topsports International Holdings (6110 HK) miss suggests inventory fire sale ahead. Negative for demand in China, Nike (NKE US), Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) and the whole sector
Chinese consumers aren't buying Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW) (BMW GR) or going to the Movies
But Americans are still walking in Westerns Boots Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT US) 


Global Consumer (Midweek Update): Consumer Woes Persist, Especially in China.

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In August, Tesla’s shipments grew by 3% YoY, while top domestic producers’ shipments grew over 30% YoY.</li>
<li>The revenues of two domestic sneaker makers, 361 Degree and Anta, increased by 19% YoY and 14% YoY in 1H24.</li>
<li>In 2Q24, NIO’s deliveries and revenue increased by 144% YoY and 99% YoY, but its losses were still significant.</li>
</ul>


In August, Tesla’s shipments grew by 3% YoY, while top domestic producers’ shipments grew over 30% YoY.
The revenues of two domestic sneaker makers, 361 Degree and Anta, increased by 19% YoY and 14% YoY in 1H24.
In 2Q24, NIO’s deliveries and revenue increased by 144% YoY and 99% YoY, but its losses were still significant.


China Consumption Weekly (9 Sep 2024): Tesla, NIO, PDD, Anta, 361 Degree

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was a net buyer this week, again, after a small net sell week broke the 28-week buying streak. This week, over four days, it was +HK$9.3bn.</li>
<li>ETFs were a net buy this week; CCB, ICBC, Meituan, China Mobile, as well as BYD, Nonfu Spring, and ANTA Sports stand out among net buys. Sells were small. </li>
<li>This week sees <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> eligible for SOUTHBOUND buying. And what was supposed to be the HSI/HSCEI/HSTECH rebals Friday are pushed to Monday (link <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hang-seng-hscei-hstech-sep24-rebal-final-capping-flows" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>).</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was a net buyer this week, again, after a small net sell week broke the 28-week buying streak. This week, over four days, it was +HK$9.3bn.
ETFs were a net buy this week; CCB, ICBC, Meituan, China Mobile, as well as BYD, Nonfu Spring, and ANTA Sports stand out among net buys. Sells were small. 
This week sees Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) eligible for SOUTHBOUND buying. And what was supposed to be the HSI/HSCEI/HSTECH rebals Friday are pushed to Monday (link here).


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 Sep 2024); Weak Data

China

ANTA Sports Products Limited designs, develops, manufactures, and markets sportswear, including sports footwear and apparel for professionals and the general public.

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Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 27)

HSI is the top performing major global index heading into 4Q2024. Haidilao and Anta both benefit from improved sentiment in consumer sector. Citic...

David Mudd

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 20)

Sands China's parent increases its stake. Shenzhou is benefits from increased China sales from a health-conscious consumer. MCC new contracts...

David Mudd

Global Consumer (Midweek Update): Consumer Woes Persist, Especially in China.

Topsports miss signals inventory fire sale in China, impacting Nike, Anta Sports Products, and the sector as a whole. Chinese consumers shun...

Neil Campling

China Consumption Weekly (9 Sep 2024): Tesla, NIO, PDD, Anta, 361 Degree

In August, Tesla’s shipments grew by only 3% YoY in China, much lower than the industry average 30%. NIO denied bankruptcy.

Ming Lu

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 Sep 2024); Weak Data

The week before BABA gets SOUTHBOUND flows was weak in HK, but SOUTHBOUND was still a net buyer over the 4-day (typhoon-shortened week).

Travis Lundy

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The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 27)

HSI is the top performing major global index heading into 4Q2024. Haidilao and Anta both benefit from improved sentiment in consumer sector. Citic...

David Mudd

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 20)

Sands China's parent increases its stake. Shenzhou is benefits from increased China sales from a health-conscious consumer. MCC new contracts...

David Mudd

Global Consumer (Midweek Update): Consumer Woes Persist, Especially in China.

​Topsports miss signals inventory fire sale in China, impacting Nike, Anta Sports Products, and the sector as a whole. Chinese consumers shun...

Neil Campling

China Consumption Weekly (9 Sep 2024): Tesla, NIO, PDD, Anta, 361 Degree

In August, Tesla’s shipments grew by only 3% YoY in China, much lower than the industry average 30%. NIO denied bankruptcy.

Ming Lu

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 Sep 2024); Weak Data

The week before BABA gets SOUTHBOUND flows was weak in HK, but SOUTHBOUND was still a net buyer over the 4-day (typhoon-shortened week).

Travis Lundy

Topsports miss signals inventory fire sale in China, impacting Nike, Anta Sports Products, and the sector as a whole. Chinese consumers shun...