Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With momentum behind defensive/semi defensive names in the Japanese market, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-pacific-international-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1" rel="noopener">Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)</a>’ seems to have one of the best risk reward ratios among Japanese retail players.</li>
<li>PPI’s undervaluation is visible in valuation multiples across the board with all multiples trading near the past 10-year low level.</li>
<li>Thus, we would buy PPI with a target of 40% upside in the short term.</li>
</ul>


With momentum behind defensive/semi defensive names in the Japanese market, Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)’ seems to have one of the best risk reward ratios among Japanese retail players.
PPI’s undervaluation is visible in valuation multiples across the board with all multiples trading near the past 10-year low level.
Thus, we would buy PPI with a target of 40% upside in the short term.


Pan Pacific International Valuation: All Signs Points to a Large Upside in the Short Term

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Convenience stores are bouncing back after a difficult 18 months, aided by efforts to find new ways to meet demand for home deliveries.</li>
<li>While conbini are ideally placed to do this, their less flexible business model means that competitors like food delivery companies are making the first moves.</li>
<li>These firms are already setting up dark stores for local deliveries and could grow into a new form of competition for convenience stores and local supermarkets.</li>
</ul>


Convenience stores are bouncing back after a difficult 18 months, aided by efforts to find new ways to meet demand for home deliveries.
While conbini are ideally placed to do this, their less flexible business model means that competitors like food delivery companies are making the first moves.
These firms are already setting up dark stores for local deliveries and could grow into a new form of competition for convenience stores and local supermarkets.


Home Delivery Next Evolution for Japan's Conbini Sector?

<ul>
<li>Following a strong third quarter the company has raised the full year revenue and OP outlook by 3.0% and 7.3% respectively due to stronger than expected overseas convenience store performance.</li>
<li>Moreover, the company continues to raise the Speedway synergies with the new medium-term plan expecting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> to double the EBITDA and EPS through 2020-25.</li>
<li>After rallying 65% in 1H21, shares took a breather during the last seven months. We think the timing is right to start the second half of Seven &amp; I’s rally.</li>
</ul>


Following a strong third quarter the company has raised the full year revenue and OP outlook by 3.0% and 7.3% respectively due to stronger than expected overseas convenience store performance.
Moreover, the company continues to raise the Speedway synergies with the new medium-term plan expecting Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) to double the EBITDA and EPS through 2020-25.
After rallying 65% in 1H21, shares took a breather during the last seven months. We think the timing is right to start the second half of Seven &amp; I’s rally.


Time to Get Back Into Our 2021 High Conviction Call Seven & I

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Mercari was expected to announce at some point that it would attempt to transfer to TSE Prime. They have now announced. </li>
<li>This will end up being a BIG TOPIX inclusion in May or June. </li>
<li>And the changes to the TOPIX Free Float Weight Methodology will mean it is bigger than it would have been under the old regime (despite unchanged FFW).</li>
</ul>


Mercari was expected to announce at some point that it would attempt to transfer to TSE Prime. They have now announced. 
This will end up being a BIG TOPIX inclusion in May or June. 
And the changes to the TOPIX Free Float Weight Methodology will mean it is bigger than it would have been under the old regime (despite unchanged FFW).


Mercari (4385) Applying for TSE Prime Means TOPIX Inclusion in 4-5 Months

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a> released rather disappointing 3QFY22 results last week with revenue and OP falling short of consensus by 4.5% and 22.2% respectively.</li>
<li>Lower than expected profitability is driven by Lawson’s heavy upfront investments on future growth.</li>
<li>With consensus unjustly penalising Lawson for growth investments, we think that there’s around ¥10.0bn upside to FY+2 consensus OP of Lawson.</li>
</ul>



Lawson Inc (2651 JP) released rather disappointing 3QFY22 results last week with revenue and OP falling short of consensus by 4.5% and 22.2% respectively.
Lower than expected profitability is driven by Lawson’s heavy upfront investments on future growth.
With consensus unjustly penalising Lawson for growth investments, we think that there’s around ¥10.0bn upside to FY+2 consensus OP of Lawson.


Japan

LAWSON, INC. operates a chain of convenience stores in Japan. The Company sells a variety of products including fast food, beverages, snacks, magazines, newspapers, and sundry goods.

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Lawson Inc (2651 JP)

Pan Pacific International Valuation: All Signs Points to a Large Upside in the Short Term

With momentum shifting positive, we think PPI has the largest upside potential among the Japanese semi defensive names with a possible 40% upside...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Home Delivery Next Evolution for Japan's Conbini Sector?

Food delivery is evolving fast in Japan but not just for takeaways. Local delivery of essentials by food delivery firms is becoming a new source of...

Michael Causton

Time to Get Back Into Our 2021 High Conviction Call Seven & I

After trading range bound for almost seven months, we are expecting a breakout with Seven & I’s revised FY22 guidance which suggests that there...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Mercari (4385) Applying for TSE Prime Means TOPIX Inclusion in 4-5 Months

Mercari (4385 JP) announced Friday it applied for TSE Prime transfer. I expect a TOPIX inclusion end-May or end-June. The change in FFW method...

Travis Lundy

Lawson: Fuelled up and Ready To Go

With around 40% upside to Lawson’s domestic convenience store OP and around ¥10.0-15.0bn OP from the China business, the company’s consolidated...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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