Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Hard catalysts (M&As, spin-offs, demergers) & discount arbitrage (holdco, share-class)

Event-Driven

Mercari, Inc. offers application software development services. The Company mainly plans, develops, and operates shopping marketplace application software products. Mercari provides services in Japan.

<ul>
<li>MFEA lower-voting ordinary shares are trading at a 33.6% discount relative to the MFEB high-ordinary shares, which seems excessive (and above the 32% average since listing of A-shares).</li>
<li>If the offer for TL5 SM succeeds, MFEA would represent 0.68x the number of MFEB and 6.81x the number of votes of MFEB, thus increased percentage of votes and liquidity.</li>
<li>Estimated settlement of the takeover is 1 September. I target a 25% discount and recommend long 1 MFEA IM/short 1 MFEB IM.</li>
</ul>

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

European Event-driven Analyst

<ul>
<li>The dollar has strengthened significantly since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has led to a broad risk-off environment. Among EM currencies, the worst performer has been the Hungarian forint. </li>
<li>Adding to the economic woes resulting from Russia's aggression, the forint has suffered as the central bank has signaled less aggressive monetary tightening even with inflation hitting a two-decade high.</li>
<li>PM Orban has worsened the situation with his pre-election spending and by going against the EU by resisting further sanctions on Russia. Relatedly, funding from the EU is at risk.</li>
</ul>

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

<ul>
<li>Employment increased ahead of April’s jobs tax hike, and vacancies since then stayed high. Hours have also recovered despite depressed self-employment levels.</li>
<li>Firms appear to be focusing on retention, with bonus payments surging while regular pay growth slows. Nonetheless, wage settlements have been their highest since 2008.</li>
<li>This combination of rising wage deals and falling unemployment looks to be around a cyclical peak in underlying inflation pressures, probably pushing the BoE to hike in June.</li>
</ul>

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

<ul>
<li>Ong Choo Eng and his son Ong Eng Yaw, together with Roswell Assets, Dymon Asia Private Equity, and Crytalic Star have launched a voluntary Offer for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hwa-hong-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6648:1" rel="noopener">Hwa Hong (HWAH SP)</a></strong>.</li>
<li>The S$0.37/share Offer is a nine-year high and a 27.6% premium to last close. It has not been declared final. </li>
<li>However, it appears not all of the founding members of the company are on the same page. The family fissure became public after the last independent director resigned this month. </li>
</ul>

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>SMC 4QFY22 was in-line with consensus revenue estimates at ¥185bn, but missed at the OP level with ¥52.7bn (10% below consensus) in a now familiar pattern for the sector. </li>
<li>The company’s FY23 guidance was strong projecting revenue of ¥805bn (+4.5% vs. consensus) and OP of ¥265bn (+6.9% vs. consensus). </li>
<li>The problem is that this ignores the typical cyclicality for the company and we believe OP will in fact be down YoY.</li>
</ul>

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

<ul>
<li>Mercari was expected to announce at some point that it would attempt to transfer to TSE Prime. They have now announced. </li>
<li>This will end up being a BIG TOPIX inclusion in May or June. </li>
<li>And the changes to the TOPIX Free Float Weight Methodology will mean it is bigger than it would have been under the old regime (despite unchanged FFW).</li>
</ul>

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>There are 22 deletions for the MSCI Japan Index at the May SAIR. The changes were expected and there is large short buildup on quite a few of the stocks.</li>
<li>Over the last month, the largest increase in shorts as a percentage of passive selling was on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari Inc</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-century-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8053:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Century Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sohgo-security-services-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14181:1" rel="noopener">Sohgo Security Services</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pola-orbis-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2287:1" rel="noopener">Pola Orbis Holdings</a>.</li>
<li>The deletions have underperformed the TOPIX by 22% over the last 6 months and by 10% over the last two months. Position for a bounce post implementation.</li>
</ul>

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/Events/Delta One

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tabcorp-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6837:1" rel="noopener">Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU)</a> will soon spin out its Lottery and Keno business, to be called <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-lottery-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35970:1" rel="noopener">The Lottery Corp (TLC AU)</a>. TAH shares go ex-TLC on 24 May.  </li>
<li>The question is where do they trade. What is in the price? What is not? What are the potential index implications?</li>
<li>This insight provides a grid of index implications and pro-forma valuations (EV/EBITDA, PER, Dividend Yield) for each and both and the combined entity.</li>
</ul>

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/faith-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14455:1" rel="noopener">Faith Inc (4295 JP)</a> is a very smallcap contents management and platform business. As a business, one could give it a miss forever, but it is cash-rich. </li>
<li>The company is doing a very large buyback, and for someone who decided they'd be interested, there is a large block for sale. </li>
<li>The thing is... one would have to act quickly and aggressively.</li>
</ul>

<ul>
<li>KDIC is looking to sell around half of its remaining stake in Woori Financial Group (WFG).</li>
<li>This is almost a clean-up trade considering that KDIC had a stake of nearly 18% at the start of 2021 and will now be reduced to a less than 2%.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>

Mercari Inc

Mercari (4385) Applying for TSE Prime Means TOPIX Inclusion in 4-5 Months