Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).</li>
<li>The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.</li>
<li>Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors</li>
</ul>


Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).
The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.
Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors


Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Daiso is usually known for standing back and throwing mountains of plastic into cramped stores and selling it all for ¥100 per item. </li>
<li>Daiso has moved on in the past few years and now has new formats that not only sell at higher prices but offer a level of quality that surprises customers.</li>
<li>Its latest chain, Standard Products, targets Muji and Nitori in home categories for anything smaller than a desk and is representative of the growing sophistication and reach of discount retailing.</li>
</ul>


Daiso is usually known for standing back and throwing mountains of plastic into cramped stores and selling it all for ¥100 per item. 
Daiso has moved on in the past few years and now has new formats that not only sell at higher prices but offer a level of quality that surprises customers.
Its latest chain, Standard Products, targets Muji and Nitori in home categories for anything smaller than a desk and is representative of the growing sophistication and reach of discount retailing.


<ul>
<li>As more suppliers announce price increases, larger retailers are turning to discount campaigns to establish some early price credibility before competition gets even fiercer. </li>
<li>Lower prices will increasingly attract customers as price sensitivity quickly rises, benefiting discount retailers.</li>
<li>But, with the Yen so low, import prices are also set to add to the pressure pin standard price retailers – a full list of vulnerable retailers below.</li>
</ul>


As more suppliers announce price increases, larger retailers are turning to discount campaigns to establish some early price credibility before competition gets even fiercer. 
Lower prices will increasingly attract customers as price sensitivity quickly rises, benefiting discount retailers.
But, with the Yen so low, import prices are also set to add to the pressure pin standard price retailers – a full list of vulnerable retailers below.


Japan's Big Retailers Resist Price Pressure

<ul>
<li>Amazon Japan continues to lead in online merchandise sales, with GTVs rising faster than Rakuten in 2021 and far ahead of Z Holdings. </li>
<li>Nevertheless both the domestic incumbents are fighting hard to overcome their weaknesses and use their strengths in mobile networks, loyalty points and cashless payments to win share.</li>
<li>Rakuten is also now making it possible to consolidate orders from multiple merchants and plans to open this service to any online merchant – a game changer for online platforms. </li>
</ul>


Amazon Japan continues to lead in online merchandise sales, with GTVs rising faster than Rakuten in 2021 and far ahead of Z Holdings. 
Nevertheless both the domestic incumbents are fighting hard to overcome their weaknesses and use their strengths in mobile networks, loyalty points and cashless payments to win share.
Rakuten is also now making it possible to consolidate orders from multiple merchants and plans to open this service to any online merchant – a game changer for online platforms. 


Japan E-Commerce Wars Intensify Among the Big 3 Online Platforms

<ul>
<li>OniGo only opened its first dark store in the middle of last year and along with competitors is expanding rapidly.</li>
<li>But it also recently signed up to deliver orders from Lawson Store 100 and is running a trial from Comfort Market, Seven &amp; I’s concept store in Setagaya.  </li>
<li>In both cases, online orders are picked, not by store staff, but by OniGo’s own staff, to increase the speed of order preparation and to tie to store’s inventory systems.</li>
</ul>


OniGo only opened its first dark store in the middle of last year and along with competitors is expanding rapidly.
But it also recently signed up to deliver orders from Lawson Store 100 and is running a trial from Comfort Market, Seven &amp; I’s concept store in Setagaya.  
In both cases, online orders are picked, not by store staff, but by OniGo’s own staff, to increase the speed of order preparation and to tie to store’s inventory systems.


Dark Store Delivery in Japan Takes Off – Collaborating with Retailers

Japan

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)

Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Despite the intact downtrend on Japan's TOPIX, relative strength is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend; this tells us Japan is emerging as...

Vermilion Research

Daiso: Going After Muji and Nitori

Daiso Sangyo is known for cheap and cheerful 100 Yen stores but is fast expansing new higher priced chains which could well cause problems not only...

Michael Causton

Japan's Big Retailers Resist Price Pressure

The pressure on costs should just mean that retailers raise prices but with competition so intense, standard retailers are trying to resist raising...

Michael Causton

Japan E-Commerce Wars Intensify Among the Big 3 Online Platforms

The intensity of competition between the big 3 in e-commerce (Amazon, Rakuten, Z Holdings) means that all are investing heavily. Amazon leads but...

Michael Causton

Dark Store Delivery in Japan Takes Off – Collaborating with Retailers

Dark stores are taking off, set up by delivery firms to ship food and basic daily use products. Some are competing with retailers but others are...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)