IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Reuters reports that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> (JPH) is planning to sell shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> (JPB), which could total some JPY600 billion (US$4.0 billion).</li>
<li>The potential offering would align with JPH’s stated goal of reducing its equity interest in JPB to 50% or less by FY 2025.</li>
<li>The potential offering is relatively smaller than JPB’s 2023 offering. Compared to its peers, JPB’s valuation remains undemanding. </li>
</ul>


Reuters reports that Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) is planning to sell shares in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), which could total some JPY600 billion (US$4.0 billion).
The potential offering would align with JPH’s stated goal of reducing its equity interest in JPB to 50% or less by FY 2025.
The potential offering is relatively smaller than JPB’s 2023 offering. Compared to its peers, JPB’s valuation remains undemanding. 


Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): Japan Post Holding (6178 JP)’s Rumoured Offering

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Market expectations that the BoJ’s monetary policy meeting will raise benchmark interest rates in December are reflected in the rising JGB yields, and in the domestic lending rate trends</li>
<li>We reiterate our core recommendations of Resona and Mizuho for their leverage to higher interest rates, their low LDRs and their high share of strategic holdings relative to market capitalisation</li>
<li>We reduce Chiba to neutral from buy, keep our buy on Concordia; we add Shizuoka for its gearing to higher interest rates and very high share of strategic shareholdings</li>
</ul>


Market expectations that the BoJ’s monetary policy meeting will raise benchmark interest rates in December are reflected in the rising JGB yields, and in the domestic lending rate trends
We reiterate our core recommendations of Resona and Mizuho for their leverage to higher interest rates, their low LDRs and their high share of strategic holdings relative to market capitalisation
We reduce Chiba to neutral from buy, keep our buy on Concordia; we add Shizuoka for its gearing to higher interest rates and very high share of strategic shareholdings


Japanese Big Cap Banks – Shizuoka (5831 JP) Upgraded to Buy, Chiba (8331 JP) To Neutral from Buy

<ul>
<li>We agree with market expectations that the BoJ’s monetary policy meeting will keep benchmark interest rates unchanged, and the market has barely suffered from post-election political turmoil</li>
<li>Despite the BoJ pausing on rate rises, the latest BoJ data indicates that market interest rates are, for the most part, rising, supported by a modest JGB yield curve steepening</li>
<li>We recommend Resona and Mizuho for their leverage to higher interest rates, their low LDRs and, among the big five, their high share of strategic holdings relative to market capitalisation</li>
</ul>


We agree with market expectations that the BoJ’s monetary policy meeting will keep benchmark interest rates unchanged, and the market has barely suffered from post-election political turmoil
Despite the BoJ pausing on rate rises, the latest BoJ data indicates that market interest rates are, for the most part, rising, supported by a modest JGB yield curve steepening
We recommend Resona and Mizuho for their leverage to higher interest rates, their low LDRs and, among the big five, their high share of strategic holdings relative to market capitalisation


Japanese Big Cap Banks – Stay Positive Ahead of BoJ’s Outlook Report and 2Q Fiscal Year Results

<ul>
<li>JGB 10Y bond yields have slipped from their July high, but are well above historic lows; the outlook, in our view, is still for BoJ monetary tightening before year-end 2024</li>
<li>We see a constructive outlook with recovering domestic loan growth, available funding as well as sector evidence of higher lending rates; also, largely well controlled unrealized losses on bond portfolios</li>
<li>We keep Resona and Mizuho as our top picks for their strong gearing to higher interest rates and attractive valuations in this Japanese bank group, along with Chiba and Concordia</li>
</ul>


JGB 10Y bond yields have slipped from their July high, but are well above historic lows; the outlook, in our view, is still for BoJ monetary tightening before year-end 2024
We see a constructive outlook with recovering domestic loan growth, available funding as well as sector evidence of higher lending rates; also, largely well controlled unrealized losses on bond portfolios
We keep Resona and Mizuho as our top picks for their strong gearing to higher interest rates and attractive valuations in this Japanese bank group, along with Chiba and Concordia


Japanese Bigger Cap Banks – BoJ’s Pause Does Not De-Rail Our Expectations for Higher Interest Rates

<ul>
<li>The Bank of Japan has raised its short-term interest rate to 0.25% from 0.1% ahead of the core of consensus expectations, and BoJ plans to pare back purchases of JGBs</li>
<li>We focus on those big-cap Japanese banks that are well geared into higher domestic rates through loan books and BoJ deposits, that also have lesser exposure to rising JGB yields</li>
<li>We stay broadly positive on Japanese bank shares, despite their performance; we add Chiba to the buy list of Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Concordia, whilst keeping Kyoto as a sell</li>
</ul>


The Bank of Japan has raised its short-term interest rate to 0.25% from 0.1% ahead of the core of consensus expectations, and BoJ plans to pare back purchases of JGBs
We focus on those big-cap Japanese banks that are well geared into higher domestic rates through loan books and BoJ deposits, that also have lesser exposure to rising JGB yields
We stay broadly positive on Japanese bank shares, despite their performance; we add Chiba to the buy list of Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Concordia, whilst keeping Kyoto as a sell


Japanese Big-Cap Banks – Rates Story Takes Centre Stage, Along with Banks’ JGB Exposure

Japan

The Chiba Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Chiba Prefecture. The Bank offers general banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transactions. The Chiba Bank also develops software and provides financial services such as leasing, securities brokerage, letter of credit, and credit cards.

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Chiba Bank (8331 JP)

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): Japan Post Holding (6178 JP)’s Rumoured Offering

The potential offering would align with JPH’s stated goal of reducing its equity interest in JPB to 50% or less by FY 2025. Compared to its peers,...

Arun George

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Shizuoka (5831 JP) Upgraded to Buy, Chiba (8331 JP) To Neutral from Buy

Expectations are for BoJ to hike rates, potentially in December; we like Resona, Mizuho, Concordia, Shizuoka for higher rates gearing, low LDRs,...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Stay Positive Ahead of BoJ’s Outlook Report and 2Q Fiscal Year Results

BoJ is to hold rates, yet data shows rising market rates and the JGB yield curve is steepening; we rate Resona and Mizuho for their higher rate...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Bigger Cap Banks – BoJ’s Pause Does Not De-Rail Our Expectations for Higher Interest Rates

JGB yields have eased a bit, but BoJ still set to tighten rates. Outlook for loan growth, higher lending rates supports buys on Resona, Mizuho,...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Big-Cap Banks – Rates Story Takes Centre Stage, Along with Banks’ JGB Exposure

Bank of Japan raises short-term interest rate to 0.25%, plans to reduce JGB purchases. We like Resona, Mizuho, SMFG, Concordia big-cap bank shares...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): Japan Post Holding (6178 JP)’s Rumoured Offering

The potential offering would align with JPH’s stated goal of reducing its equity interest in JPB to 50% or less by FY 2025. Compared to its peers,...

Arun George

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Shizuoka (5831 JP) Upgraded to Buy, Chiba (8331 JP) To Neutral from Buy

​Expectations are for BoJ to hike rates, potentially in December; we like Resona, Mizuho, Concordia, Shizuoka for higher rates gearing, low LDRs,...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Stay Positive Ahead of BoJ’s Outlook Report and 2Q Fiscal Year Results

​BoJ is to hold rates, yet data shows rising market rates and the JGB yield curve is steepening; we rate Resona and Mizuho for their higher rate...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Bigger Cap Banks – BoJ’s Pause Does Not De-Rail Our Expectations for Higher Interest Rates

​JGB yields have eased a bit, but BoJ still set to tighten rates. Outlook for loan growth, higher lending rates supports buys on Resona, Mizuho,...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Big-Cap Banks – Rates Story Takes Centre Stage, Along with Banks’ JGB Exposure

​Bank of Japan raises short-term interest rate to 0.25%, plans to reduce JGB purchases. We like Resona, Mizuho, SMFG, Concordia big-cap bank shares...

Victor Galliano

Expectations are for BoJ to hike rates, potentially in December; we like Resona, Mizuho, Concordia, Shizuoka for higher rates gearing, low LDRs,...

BoJ is to hold rates, yet data shows rising market rates and the JGB yield curve is steepening; we rate Resona and Mizuho for their higher rate...

JGB yields have eased a bit, but BoJ still set to tighten rates. Outlook for loan growth, higher lending rates supports buys on Resona, Mizuho,...

Bank of Japan raises short-term interest rate to 0.25%, plans to reduce JGB purchases. We like Resona, Mizuho, SMFG, Concordia big-cap bank shares...