Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following a market consultation, Indonesia could see its weight slashed in a global index and that will lead to passive selling in May.</li>
<li>Depending on the approach taken to computing free float, outflows could be in the range of US$925m and US$2.2bn.</li>
<li>The change in free float methodology could also lead to a few stocks being deleted from the index due to low free float market cap.</li>
</ul>


Following a market consultation, Indonesia could see its weight slashed in a global index and that will lead to passive selling in May.
Depending on the approach taken to computing free float, outflows could be in the range of US$925m and US$2.2bn.
The change in free float methodology could also lead to a few stocks being deleted from the index due to low free float market cap.


Global Index: Indonesia Likely to See Huge Outflows in May

<ul>
<li>A global index provider had started a market consultation to address issues around the real free float of stocks in Indonesia.</li>
<li>Depending on the approach taken, estimates for outflows ranged from US$925m-US$2.2bn. Following the end of the consultation, there will be no immediate outflows. But things look a lot uglier.</li>
<li>If transparency around free float does not improve by May, Indonesia's weight in the index could be reduced at a subsequent rebalance or Indonesia could move from Emerging to Frontier.</li>
</ul>


A global index provider had started a market consultation to address issues around the real free float of stocks in Indonesia.
Depending on the approach taken, estimates for outflows ranged from US$925m-US$2.2bn. Following the end of the consultation, there will be no immediate outflows. But things look a lot uglier.
If transparency around free float does not improve by May, Indonesia's weight in the index could be reduced at a subsequent rebalance or Indonesia could move from Emerging to Frontier.


Global Index: Indonesia Goes from the Frying Pan to the Fire

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a> is a Southeast Asian conglomerate that has been handicapped by its listing in the Hong Kong market over the last several years.</li>
<li>As Southeast Asian markets (Indonesia and Philippines) begin to re-rate on the back of a more accommodating Fed policy, First Pacific is beginning to participate in the uptrend.</li>
<li>Metro Pacific Investments Corp (MPIC), the second largest piece of the company's NAV has been active in acquiring more infrastructure assets since being privatized last year.</li>
</ul>



First Pacific Co (142 HK) is a Southeast Asian conglomerate that has been handicapped by its listing in the Hong Kong market over the last several years.
As Southeast Asian markets (Indonesia and Philippines) begin to re-rate on the back of a more accommodating Fed policy, First Pacific is beginning to participate in the uptrend.
Metro Pacific Investments Corp (MPIC), the second largest piece of the company's NAV has been active in acquiring more infrastructure assets since being privatized last year.


BUY: First Pacific Company (142 HK): Right Stock Trapped in the Wrong Market

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Indofood Sukses Makmur / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF IJ)Agribusiness &amp; Bogasari as Growth Contributors.</li><li>We forecast Bogasari’s FY26F revenue to grow by 5% with a resilient 7.6% EBIT margin, within management’s guidance.</li><li>We expect agribusiness contr. to improve in 2H26 on seasonal production improvement &amp; firmer CPO prices, with B50 as additional demand support. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF IJ)Agribusiness &amp; Bogasari as Growth Contributors.We forecast Bogasari’s FY26F revenue to grow by 5% with a resilient 7.6% EBIT margin, within management’s guidance.We expect agribusiness contr. to improve in 2H26 on seasonal production improvement &amp; firmer CPO prices, with B50 as additional demand support. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF.IJ) Agribusiness & Bogasari as Growth Contributors

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<ul>
 <li>Indofood is a vertically integrated food solutions giant in Indonesia, poised to benefit from the country's favorable demographics and rising consumer spending.</li>
 <li>The Agribusiness segment, particularly palm oil, is a significant growth driver, supported by strong commodity prices and government biodiesel mandates.</li>
 <li>While the company exhibits strong top-line growth and market leadership, it faces risks from commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, and margin pressures in its consumer branded products segment.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  Indofood is a vertically integrated food solutions giant in Indonesia, poised to benefit from the country's favorable demographics and rising consumer spending.
  The Agribusiness segment, particularly palm oil, is a significant growth driver, supported by strong commodity prices and government biodiesel mandates.
  While the company exhibits strong top-line growth and market leadership, it faces risks from commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, and margin pressures in its consumer branded products segment.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ) - Dec 2025

Indonesia

PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk is an Indonesian multinational consumer goods company specializing in the production and distribution of processed food products across the entire supply chain. Its core business activities include consumer branded products like instant noodles (e.g., Indomie), dairy, snacks, and food seasonings; flour milling (Bogasari); agribusiness such as palm oil and sugar; and distribution networks. The company is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, and was incorporated on August 14, 1990.

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Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF IJ)

Global Index: Indonesia Likely to See Huge Outflows in May

This is going be a huge theme today for Indonesia. The price movements of a lot of stocks have raised issues in the past with global index...

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Global Index: Indonesia Goes from the Frying Pan to the Fire

Now the other global index provider has frozen all changes for Indonesia at the March rebalance. While the impact will be a lot smaller than for...

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BUY: First Pacific Company (142 HK): Right Stock Trapped in the Wrong Market

Since our insight on 1st Pac last Sept., the stock has gained 33%. Company had solid 2024 results. MPIC, the undervalued Phil./Indonesia...

David Mudd