Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following a market consultation, Indonesia could see its weight slashed in a global index and that will lead to passive selling in May.</li>
<li>Depending on the approach taken to computing free float, outflows could be in the range of US$925m and US$2.2bn.</li>
<li>The change in free float methodology could also lead to a few stocks being deleted from the index due to low free float market cap.</li>
</ul>


Following a market consultation, Indonesia could see its weight slashed in a global index and that will lead to passive selling in May.
Depending on the approach taken to computing free float, outflows could be in the range of US$925m and US$2.2bn.
The change in free float methodology could also lead to a few stocks being deleted from the index due to low free float market cap.


Global Index: Indonesia Likely to See Huge Outflows in May

<ul>
<li>A global index provider had started a market consultation to address issues around the real free float of stocks in Indonesia.</li>
<li>Depending on the approach taken, estimates for outflows ranged from US$925m-US$2.2bn. Following the end of the consultation, there will be no immediate outflows. But things look a lot uglier.</li>
<li>If transparency around free float does not improve by May, Indonesia's weight in the index could be reduced at a subsequent rebalance or Indonesia could move from Emerging to Frontier.</li>
</ul>


A global index provider had started a market consultation to address issues around the real free float of stocks in Indonesia.
Depending on the approach taken, estimates for outflows ranged from US$925m-US$2.2bn. Following the end of the consultation, there will be no immediate outflows. But things look a lot uglier.
If transparency around free float does not improve by May, Indonesia's weight in the index could be reduced at a subsequent rebalance or Indonesia could move from Emerging to Frontier.


Global Index: Indonesia Goes from the Frying Pan to the Fire

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a> is a Southeast Asian conglomerate that has been handicapped by its listing in the Hong Kong market over the last several years.</li>
<li>As Southeast Asian markets (Indonesia and Philippines) begin to re-rate on the back of a more accommodating Fed policy, First Pacific is beginning to participate in the uptrend.</li>
<li>Metro Pacific Investments Corp (MPIC), the second largest piece of the company's NAV has been active in acquiring more infrastructure assets since being privatized last year.</li>
</ul>



First Pacific Co (142 HK) is a Southeast Asian conglomerate that has been handicapped by its listing in the Hong Kong market over the last several years.
As Southeast Asian markets (Indonesia and Philippines) begin to re-rate on the back of a more accommodating Fed policy, First Pacific is beginning to participate in the uptrend.
Metro Pacific Investments Corp (MPIC), the second largest piece of the company's NAV has been active in acquiring more infrastructure assets since being privatized last year.


BUY: First Pacific Company (142 HK): Right Stock Trapped in the Wrong Market

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Indonesia in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Barito Pacific, Bukit Asam, Adaro Andalan Indonesia, PT Indofood Sukses Makmur, Bank Central Asia, Merdeka Copper Gold.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Indonesia in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Barito Pacific, Bukit Asam, Adaro Andalan Indonesia, PT Indofood Sukses Makmur, Bank Central Asia, Merdeka Copper Gold.


MS-Indonesia Index Earning Revision (Sep): Barito Pacific, Bukit Asam, Adaro Andalan Indonesia

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join the fray</li>
<li>Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 295% versus the MSCI ASEAN's  59%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join the fray
Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 295% versus the MSCI ASEAN's  59%


Indonesia

PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk is an Indonesian multinational consumer goods company specializing in the production and distribution of processed food products across the entire supply chain. Its core business activities include consumer branded products like instant noodles (e.g., Indomie), dairy, snacks, and food seasonings; flour milling (Bogasari); agribusiness such as palm oil and sugar; and distribution networks. The company is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, and was incorporated on August 14, 1990.

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Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF IJ)

Global Index: Indonesia Likely to See Huge Outflows in May

This is going be a huge theme today for Indonesia. The price movements of a lot of stocks have raised issues in the past with global index...

Brian Freitas

Global Index: Indonesia Goes from the Frying Pan to the Fire

Now the other global index provider has frozen all changes for Indonesia at the March rebalance. While the impact will be a lot smaller than for...

Brian Freitas

BUY: First Pacific Company (142 HK): Right Stock Trapped in the Wrong Market

Since our insight on 1st Pac last Sept., the stock has gained 33%. Company had solid 2024 results. MPIC, the undervalued Phil./Indonesia...

David Mudd

MS-Indonesia Index Earning Revision (Sep): Barito Pacific, Bukit Asam, Adaro Andalan Indonesia

We analyzed MS-Indonesia's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ), Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ), Adaro Andalan...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 53

We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology. Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine stocks added.

A. Stotz Investment Research

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