Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of September 2023, 8 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$2bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in September was 37%. The average YTD is 35%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of September 2023, 8 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$2bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in September was 37%. The average YTD is 35%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sept 2023: JMDC, Pact, Takisawa, Golden Eagle Energy, Dic Corp

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont (NEM US)</a> CDI selldown on 15 December will have to be bought by active shareholders, not passive; a relatively large reverse funding trade on the ASX rebal.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a>'s CEO steps down. However, operations/investments, and the ongoing tweaking of the organizational structure with respect to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, should continue unabated. </li>
<li>Activist shareholders and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> stuck with each other for years. The takeover allows both sides to escape their mutual bearhug,</li>
</ul>


The Newmont (NEM US) CDI selldown on 15 December will have to be bought by active shareholders, not passive; a relatively large reverse funding trade on the ASX rebal.

Naspers (NPN SJ)/Prosus NV (PRX NA)'s CEO steps down. However, operations/investments, and the ongoing tweaking of the organizational structure with respect to Tencent (700 HK), should continue unabated. 
Activist shareholders and Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) stuck with each other for years. The takeover allows both sides to escape their mutual bearhug,


Last Week in Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, PTT/PTTEP, Naspers/Prosus/Tencent, Itochu Techno

<ul>
<li>I tally 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lansen-pharmaceutical-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10835:1" rel="noopener">Lansen Pharmaceutical Holdings Co, Ltd. (503 HK)</a>'s Scheme.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group (CGC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symbio-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20292:1" rel="noopener">Symbio (SYM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/poly-culture-group-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4729:1" rel="noopener">Poly Culture (3636 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-pacific-investments-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1054:1" rel="noopener">Metro Pacific Investments (MPI PM)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deals this week: Lansen Pharmaceutical Holdings Co, Ltd. (503 HK)'s Scheme.
Key updates took place for: Costa Group (CGC AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU), Healius (HLS AU), Symbio (SYM AU), Poly Culture (3636 HK), and Metro Pacific Investments (MPI PM).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Costa, Origin, Healius, Symbio, Poly Culture, Lansen, MPI

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The coming week has the rebalance implementation for the NIFTY family of indices on Thursday and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> on Friday.</li>
<li>The review period for the December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a> and the HSCI Index ends on Friday.</li>
<li>Inflows to mainland China ETFs resumed following a pause as markets continue to trade weak.</li>
</ul>


The coming week has the rebalance implementation for the NIFTY family of indices on Thursday and the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) on Friday.
The review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng TECH Index and the HSCI Index ends on Friday.
Inflows to mainland China ETFs resumed following a pause as markets continue to trade weak.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCI, ASX, SET50, Wharf, SK Tel, Tata Motors, Midea, PCOMP

<ul>
<li>I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Four new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-eagle-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3835:1" rel="noopener">Golden Eagle Energy (SMMT IJ)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takisawa-machine-tool-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7344:1" rel="noopener">Takisawa Machine Tool (6121 JP)</a>; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt (UMG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/poly-culture-group-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4729:1" rel="noopener">Poly Culture (3636 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imax-china-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:888:1" rel="noopener">IMAX China Holding (1970 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka (4636 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Four new deals this week: Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU); Golden Eagle Energy (SMMT IJ); Takisawa Machine Tool (6121 JP); and JMDC (4483 JP).
Key updates took place for: Origin Energy (ORG AU), United Malt (UMG AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Poly Culture (3636 HK), IMAX China Holding (1970 HK), and T&amp;K Toka (4636 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Origin, United Malt, T&K Toka, Golden Eagle Energy, JMDC

Philippines

Metro Pacific Investments Corporation is an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides water, sanitation and sewerage services, and also operates in real estate, infrastructure projects, toll roads, electricity distribution, hospital operations and light rail.

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Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM)

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sept 2023: JMDC, Pact, Takisawa, Golden Eagle Energy, Dic Corp

For the month of September, 8 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$2bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, PTT/PTTEP, Naspers/Prosus/Tencent, Itochu Techno

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Costa, Origin, Healius, Symbio, Poly Culture, Lansen, MPI

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCI, ASX, SET50, Wharf, SK Tel, Tata Motors, Midea, PCOMP

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Origin, United Malt, T&K Toka, Golden Eagle Energy, JMDC

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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