Analyst

Steve

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-meidong-auto-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10795:1" rel="noopener">China MeiDong Auto (1268 HK)</a> announced a profit warning this morning, expecting a 90% decline in net profit for 1H23.  </li>
<li>Luxury auto dealer in China is facing major uncertainties in its business model, with no visibility in the near term.  </li>
<li>However, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> currently employs the best long-term strategy amidst industry transformation.  Suggest to keep a close eye on the name. </li>
</ul>



China MeiDong Auto (1268 HK) announced a profit warning this morning, expecting a 90% decline in net profit for 1H23.  
Luxury auto dealer in China is facing major uncertainties in its business model, with no visibility in the near term.  
However, Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) currently employs the best long-term strategy amidst industry transformation.  Suggest to keep a close eye on the name. 


Zhongsheng Group (881 HK):  Could Be A Winner In The Long Run, But No Short-Term Visibility

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>After a tragic 61.4pp underperformance against the HSI in 2025, the market is almost unanimously bearish on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, which presents opportunities in 2026.</li>
<li>Negative news did not push it further down; P/B is at over 1SD below average, and net cash-to-share price is 5.6pp above the historical average.</li>
<li>3Q25 margins are so depressed that sustaining the price war is difficult. As the 7th-heaviest HSI constituent, it is the one to move the Index next year. </li>
</ul>


After a tragic 61.4pp underperformance against the HSI in 2025, the market is almost unanimously bearish on Meituan (3690 HK), which presents opportunities in 2026.
Negative news did not push it further down; P/B is at over 1SD below average, and net cash-to-share price is 5.6pp above the historical average.
3Q25 margins are so depressed that sustaining the price war is difficult. As the 7th-heaviest HSI constituent, it is the one to move the Index next year. 


2026 High Conviction: Meituan (3690 HK) - Contrarian Perspectives

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In the last 4 weeks, the HSI constituents with the highest yields have gained 3-4%, while the lowest-yielding ones have lost an average of 4%. </li>
<li>The top 15 high-yield constituents will deliver an average yield of 6.2% for FY26. The number increased to 25 when we include those at over 5%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/power-assets-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:788:1" rel="noopener">Power Assets Holdings (6 HK)</a> also have net cash. </li>
</ul>


In the last 4 weeks, the HSI constituents with the highest yields have gained 3-4%, while the lowest-yielding ones have lost an average of 4%. 
The top 15 high-yield constituents will deliver an average yield of 6.2% for FY26. The number increased to 25 when we include those at over 5%.

China Mobile (941 HK), CNOOC Ltd (883 HK), Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK), China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK), and Power Assets Holdings (6 HK) also have net cash. 


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 5 December.</li>
<li>We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a> will have a 6-month trading history by implementation of the index changes and is a high probability inclusion to the index. But cornerstone lock-up ends tomorrow.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 December.
We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.

CATL (3750 HK) will have a 6-month trading history by implementation of the index changes and is a high probability inclusion to the index. But cornerstone lock-up ends tomorrow.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The prior MO for the Jardines group was never sell your commercial buildings. This year marks a paradigm shift in that line of thinking. </li>
<li>First <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hongkong-land-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15465:1" rel="noopener">Hongkong Land (HKL SP)</a> sold nine floors of One Exchange Square to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a>. The first such sale since 1988.</li>
<li>Now <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP)</a> is negotiating the sale of "certain office space" at One Causeway Bay. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a>'s NAV discount and implied stub are at 12-month lows/highs.</li>
</ul>


The prior MO for the Jardines group was never sell your commercial buildings. This year marks a paradigm shift in that line of thinking. 
First Hongkong Land (HKL SP) sold nine floors of One Exchange Square to HKEX (388 HK). The first such sale since 1988.
Now Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP) is negotiating the sale of "certain office space" at One Causeway Bay. Jardine Matheson (JM SP)'s NAV discount and implied stub are at 12-month lows/highs.


Jardine Matheson (JML SP): Additional Office Recycling Speculated

China

Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd. retails automobiles.  The Company imports and retails primarily luxury and mid- to high-end automobile brands.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)