Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Fresh on the heels of his podcast meltdown, Mr. Altman has had to scramble to walk back his CFO's assertion that a potential federal bailout was on her agenda.</li>
<li>One of Mr. Altman's revenue generating ideas is to lease AI compute directly to others. Of course, that's compute capacity he can't afford to purchase in the first place. </li>
<li>Mr. Altman wants OpenAI to be all things to all people all at once. That's a strategy that rarely ends well. Let's see..</li>
</ul>


Fresh on the heels of his podcast meltdown, Mr. Altman has had to scramble to walk back his CFO's assertion that a potential federal bailout was on her agenda.
One of Mr. Altman's revenue generating ideas is to lease AI compute directly to others. Of course, that's compute capacity he can't afford to purchase in the first place. 
Mr. Altman wants OpenAI to be all things to all people all at once. That's a strategy that rarely ends well. Let's see..


OpenAI. Is The Narrative Slowly Disintegrating ?

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AMD achieved unprecedented revenue of $9.2 billion in Q3 2025, a 36% YoY growth driven despite margin contraction in the data centre segment.</li>
<li>Despite record data centre revenue of $4.3 billion, the uplift was carried by fifth-gen EPYC server CPUs rather than Instinct GPUs.</li>
<li>Multi-Year GPU commitments (from OpenAI to Oracle) strengthen the AI narrative without near-term numbers; Q4 guidance implies just 4% sequential growth, underscoring a digestion phase before the MI400 ramp.</li>
</ul>


AMD achieved unprecedented revenue of $9.2 billion in Q3 2025, a 36% YoY growth driven despite margin contraction in the data centre segment.
Despite record data centre revenue of $4.3 billion, the uplift was carried by fifth-gen EPYC server CPUs rather than Instinct GPUs.
Multi-Year GPU commitments (from OpenAI to Oracle) strengthen the AI narrative without near-term numbers; Q4 guidance implies just 4% sequential growth, underscoring a digestion phase before the MI400 ramp.


AMD in Q3 2025: Conviction in Bold Moves but a Rocky Road to Success

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>  reported a record H1 net income of ¥2.9 trillion, driven principally by a USD 14.6 billion fair-value gain from its OpenAI investment and Rights to invest.</li>
<li>The Group fully exited its USD 2.9 billion <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> stake in October, realizing gross gains of USD 2.9 billion on sale proceeds of USD 5.8 billion.</li>
<li>It also sold partial stakes in T-Mobile for USD 9.2 billion and Deutsche Telekom for USD 2.4 billion even as it raised its investment target in OpenAI to USD34.7 Bn.</li>
</ul>



Softbank Group (9984 JP)  reported a record H1 net income of ¥2.9 trillion, driven principally by a USD 14.6 billion fair-value gain from its OpenAI investment and Rights to invest.
The Group fully exited its USD 2.9 billion NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) stake in October, realizing gross gains of USD 2.9 billion on sale proceeds of USD 5.8 billion.
It also sold partial stakes in T-Mobile for USD 9.2 billion and Deutsche Telekom for USD 2.4 billion even as it raised its investment target in OpenAI to USD34.7 Bn.


Softbank Group: Performance Powered by OpenAI. Exits NVIDIA, Bets Big on AI

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Chinese AI model downloads have surpassed those of the U.S. putting at risk the valuations of the large hyperscalers in the U.S.</li>
<li>Chinese open-source AI models offer a more secure, efficient, and lower cost alternative to Chat GPT -5 , Claude 4.5 Sonnet, and other U.S. LLMs.  </li>
<li>We believe that there will be a turning point when investors will realize that the Chinese open-source AI models have undercut the premise of U.S. global dominance of AI.</li>
</ul>


Chinese AI model downloads have surpassed those of the U.S. putting at risk the valuations of the large hyperscalers in the U.S.
Chinese open-source AI models offer a more secure, efficient, and lower cost alternative to Chat GPT -5 , Claude 4.5 Sonnet, and other U.S. LLMs.  
We believe that there will be a turning point when investors will realize that the Chinese open-source AI models have undercut the premise of U.S. global dominance of AI.


CHINA'S AI COMMODITIZATION: Can Global AI Valuations Survive?

<ul>
<li>Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.</li>
<li>While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the pricing boom may be peaking.</li>
<li>Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.</li>
</ul>


Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.
While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the pricing boom may be peaking.
Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.


Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

United States

Oracle Corporation supplies software for enterprise information management. The Company offers databases and relational servers, application development and decision support tools, and enterprise business applications. Oracle's software runs on network computers, personal digital assistants, set-top devices, PCs, workstations, minicomputers, mainframes, and massively parallel computers.

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Oracle Corp (ORCL US)

OpenAI. Is The Narrative Slowly Disintegrating ?

Mr. Altman wants OpenAI to be all things to all people all at once. That's a strategy that rarely ends well. Let's see..

William Keating

AMD in Q3 2025: Conviction in Bold Moves but a Rocky Road to Success

AMD's Q3 2025 revenue hits $9.2 billion with 36% YoY growth, driven by EPYC CPUs over Instinct GPUs; Q4 guidance suggests 4% sequential growth as...

Mint Finance

Softbank Group: Performance Powered by OpenAI. Exits NVIDIA, Bets Big on AI

SoftBank’s gains soar with OpenAI’s valuation boost, lifting both actual investment returns and investment rights. Exits NVIDIA but plans to double...

Devi Subhakesan

CHINA'S AI COMMODITIZATION: Can Global AI Valuations Survive?

Chinese AI model downloads have surpassed those of the U.S. putting at risk the valuations of the large hyperscalers in the U.S.

David Mudd

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

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OpenAI. Is The Narrative Slowly Disintegrating ?

Mr. Altman wants OpenAI to be all things to all people all at once. That's a strategy that rarely ends well. Let's see..

William Keating

AMD in Q3 2025: Conviction in Bold Moves but a Rocky Road to Success

​AMD's Q3 2025 revenue hits $9.2 billion with 36% YoY growth, driven by EPYC CPUs over Instinct GPUs; Q4 guidance suggests 4% sequential growth as...

Mint Finance

Softbank Group: Performance Powered by OpenAI. Exits NVIDIA, Bets Big on AI

SoftBank’s gains soar with OpenAI’s valuation boost, lifting both actual investment returns and investment rights. Exits NVIDIA but plans to double...

Devi Subhakesan

CHINA'S AI COMMODITIZATION: Can Global AI Valuations Survive?

Chinese AI model downloads have surpassed those of the U.S. putting at risk the valuations of the large hyperscalers in the U.S.

David Mudd

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

​Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

AMD's Q3 2025 revenue hits $9.2 billion with 36% YoY growth, driven by EPYC CPUs over Instinct GPUs; Q4 guidance suggests 4% sequential growth as...

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...