Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.</li>
<li>Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.
Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.


Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Kawasan Industri Jababeka / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasan-industri-jababeka-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7755:1" rel="noopener">Kawasan Industri Jababeka</a> released a strong set of FY2023 results, with revenue growth of 20% overall and EBITDA increasing by +15% YoY due to higher land sales at Kendal.</li>
<li>KIJA also saw strong recurrent revenue from its infrastructure pillar making up 44% of sales. Marketing sales came in above its target and it is projecting a higher 2024 number.,</li>
<li>The company's Kendal Estate is a key beneficiary of shifting supply chains from China with 81% of sales to foreign companies and marketing sales increasing 68% YoY in 2023. </li>
</ul>



Kawasan Industri Jababeka released a strong set of FY2023 results, with revenue growth of 20% overall and EBITDA increasing by +15% YoY due to higher land sales at Kendal.
KIJA also saw strong recurrent revenue from its infrastructure pillar making up 44% of sales. Marketing sales came in above its target and it is projecting a higher 2024 number.,
The company's Kendal Estate is a key beneficiary of shifting supply chains from China with 81% of sales to foreign companies and marketing sales increasing 68% YoY in 2023. 


Kawasan Industri Jababeka (KIJA IJ) - Proxy for Shifting Supply Chains

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This insight comes as one-half of a pair. The problem: I cannot label one insight as a pair trade, and there are different dynamics at play.</li>
<li>This insight discusses the dynamics of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a> as the SMM takeover of Keppel O&amp;M nears. The deal goes effective 28 February but KEP trades ex- on 23 February.</li>
<li>While not as egregiously mis-priced as SCI vs SMM in autumn 2021, NEW KEPPEL appears under-priced here. </li>
</ul>


This insight comes as one-half of a pair. The problem: I cannot label one insight as a pair trade, and there are different dynamics at play.
This insight discusses the dynamics of Keppel Corp (KEP SP) as the SMM takeover of Keppel O&amp;M nears. The deal goes effective 28 February but KEP trades ex- on 23 February.
While not as egregiously mis-priced as SCI vs SMM in autumn 2021, NEW KEPPEL appears under-priced here. 


Keppel Goes Ex- SMM Spinoff This Week - NEWKEP Is Still A Buy

<ul>
<li>This insight comes as one-half of a pair. The problem: I cannot label one insight as a pair trade, and there are different dynamics at play.</li>
<li>This insight discusses the dynamics of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> as the takeover of Keppel O&amp;M nears. The deal goes effective 28 February after last week's SMM shareholder approval.</li>
<li>That will mean overhang. Lots of active overhang. There WILL be some index upweights, but index treatment remains nebulous, and one has to expect a lot more net index outflow.</li>
</ul>


This insight comes as one-half of a pair. The problem: I cannot label one insight as a pair trade, and there are different dynamics at play.
This insight discusses the dynamics of Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) as the takeover of Keppel O&amp;M nears. The deal goes effective 28 February after last week's SMM shareholder approval.
That will mean overhang. Lots of active overhang. There WILL be some index upweights, but index treatment remains nebulous, and one has to expect a lot more net index outflow.


Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP):  Keppel O&M Takeover Completion Next Week = OOF!

<ul>
<li>After 18mos of hints, and two rights recapitalisations at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a>, SMM and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a> announced a deal to merge their O&amp;M businesses at end-April.</li>
<li>Keppel shareholders would receive ~18 shares of SMM per share of Keppel owned, Keppel spins out the equity of its legacy rig assets and leaves the O&amp;M biz clean.</li>
<li>The structure announced lets us examine "forward KEP", and anticipate interest and valuations post-spin, which is "supposed to" happen in Q4. We're in Q4 now, and Keppel is interesting here.</li>
</ul>


After 18mos of hints, and two rights recapitalisations at Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP), SMM and Keppel Corp (KEP SP) announced a deal to merge their O&amp;M businesses at end-April.
Keppel shareholders would receive ~18 shares of SMM per share of Keppel owned, Keppel spins out the equity of its legacy rig assets and leaves the O&amp;M biz clean.
The structure announced lets us examine "forward KEP", and anticipate interest and valuations post-spin, which is "supposed to" happen in Q4. We're in Q4 now, and Keppel is interesting here.


Singapore

Sembcorp Industries is a Singaporean state-owned energy and urban development company. It provides sustainable energy solutions, including renewable power (solar, wind, energy storage) and conventional energy (gas and related services), alongside integrated urban solutions such as industrial parks, water, and waste management. The company is headquartered in Singapore and was founded in 1998.

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Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP)

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO $STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level; Watch for Resistance at $105-$117.69 on $ACWI. Buy...

Vermilion Research

Kawasan Industri Jababeka (KIJA IJ) - Proxy for Shifting Supply Chains

The company's Kendal Estate is a key beneficiary of shifting supply chains from China with 81% of sales to foreign companies and marketing sales...

Angus Mackintosh

Keppel Goes Ex- SMM Spinoff This Week - NEWKEP Is Still A Buy

Keppel Corp today = NEW KEP and 19.1 shares of SMM. NEWKEP is probably underpriced. SMM is a sell because of significant overhang (there may be a...

Travis Lundy

Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Keppel O&M Takeover Completion Next Week = OOF!

Sembcorp Marine shareholders have agreed to acquire Keppel O&M. The transaction closes next week (28 Feb). KEP shareholders get SMM shares in their...

Travis Lundy

Keppel O&M Spin-Off Approaching Quickly

The Keppel O&M - Sembcorp Marine deal announced 28 April was expected to be completed in Q4. That means a Circular should come any time. Earnings...

Travis Lundy

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