Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japanese telcos have plenty of financial flexibility and political/social cover to maintain current policies on returns to shareholders. We expect modest annual increases in dividends to continue but the level of buybacks may be less than FY19 which were at historically high levels (we are not including Softbank Group’s policies here). The impact of Covid-19 on returns policy should be limited although pricing/service revenue growth may be under some pressure from government policies to promote telework and online education. We have seen evidence of this already as the incumbent annual student discount plan campaigns now include free data.  Despite Covid-19 and Rakuten mobile entry, the Japanese telcos remain a safe harbor for investors.

Japanese telcos have plenty of financial flexibility and political/social cover to maintain current policies on returns to shareholders. We expect modest annual increases in dividends to continue but the level of buybacks may be less than FY19 which were at historically high levels (we are not including Softbank Group’s policies here). The impact of Covid-19 on returns policy should be limited although pricing/service revenue growth may be under some pressure from government policies to promote telework and online education. We have seen evidence of this already as the incumbent annual student discount plan campaigns now include free data.  Despite Covid-19 and Rakuten mobile entry, the Japanese telcos remain a safe harbor for investors. 

Japan Telecoms: Drilling Down on Free Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> said today that it would launch commercial 5G services on 27 March with two handsets.  Nominally, 5G will cost an additional ¥1,000/month although the fee is being waived for the first two years and we expect that the operators will never collect 5G surcharges. Since 2011, Japanese mobile operators have traded higher speeds or larger bundles for revenue stability and there is no reason to think that changes as 5G proliferates.  For the incumbents, adding 5G to their already high-quality networks should help them compete with Rakuten, which despite an anticipated June 2020 5G launch, is really years away from matching incumbent quality.

Softbank Corp (9434 JP) said today that it would launch commercial 5G services on 27 March with two handsets.  Nominally, 5G will cost an additional ¥1,000/month although the fee is being waived for the first two years and we expect that the operators will never collect 5G surcharges. Since 2011, Japanese mobile operators have traded higher speeds or larger bundles for revenue stability and there is no reason to think that changes as 5G proliferates.  For the incumbents, adding 5G to their already high-quality networks should help them compete with Rakuten, which despite an anticipated June 2020 5G launch, is really years away from matching incumbent quality. 

Softbank Corp: Commercial 5G in Japan Arrives Later This Month

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/963/original/2020-02-15_09-46-55.png?1581796265" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117963"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>A YEAR TO FORGET - The aggregate earnings of Japanese listed companies peaked on December 26th 2018 and, over the last five quarters, have declined by ¥10.5 trillion or by 22%. Net margins have declined by 135 basis points over this period to 4.5%, 224 bps below the current operating margin. Whatever the uncertainties over the impact of Covid-19, the current quarter will see a further decline. A base-case outlook for aggregate Net Income is ¥30 trillion by May 2020, which, if the total market cap were to remain at current levels, would take the  PE to a ten-year high of 22.4 times. The decline in Operating Income has been more moderate at 11%, illustrating the still all-too-frequent write-offs that Japanse corporate routinely require as penance for their mostly-overseas capital misallocations.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/966/original/2020-02-16_05-32-51.png?1581798783" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117966"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/967/original/2020-02-16_05-28-20.png?1581798803" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117967"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>ACCELERATING DOWNTREND -  Trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Revenues are now declining quarter-on-quarter, and the pace of decline in Operating Income has accelerated for the fourth quarter in a row. The aggregate one year forward forecasts have seen falling QoQ revenues and OP since TTM-2. With only one month to go before the end of FY2020 for the majority of companies and with many December year-end companies looking forward ten months, a degree of optimism has slowed the pace of decline in the current quarter. We expect Covid-19 to result in many of these forecasts to be revised down at the interim results to be released in August. RECESSION - With GDP shrinking by an annualised 6.3% in the fourth quarter and Covid-19 having at least a similar impact in the current quarter, Japan will be in an, albeit 'technical', recession by the spring.<div class="content-highlight">In the DETAIL below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes. Part 2 will update our Results and Revision Scoring for the market, Sectors, Peer Groups and Companies.</div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsA YEAR TO FORGET - The aggregate earnings of Japanese listed companies peaked on December 26th 2018 and, over the last five quarters, have declined by ¥10.5 trillion or by 22%. Net margins have declined by 135 basis points over this period to 4.5%, 224 bps below the current operating margin. Whatever the uncertainties over the impact of Covid-19, the current quarter will see a further decline. A base-case outlook for aggregate Net Income is ¥30 trillion by May 2020, which, if the total market cap were to remain at current levels, would take the  PE to a ten-year high of 22.4 times. The decline in Operating Income has been more moderate at 11%, illustrating the still all-too-frequent write-offs that Japanse corporate routinely require as penance for their mostly-overseas capital misallocations.Source • Japan AnalyticsACCELERATING DOWNTREND -  Trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Revenues are now declining quarter-on-quarter, and the pace of decline in Operating Income has accelerated for the fourth quarter in a row. The aggregate one year forward forecasts have seen falling QoQ revenues and OP since TTM-2. With only one month to go before the end of FY2020 for the majority of companies and with many December year-end companies looking forward ten months, a degree of optimism has slowed the pace of decline in the current quarter. We expect Covid-19 to result in many of these forecasts to be revised down at the interim results to be released in August. RECESSION - With GDP shrinking by an annualised 6.3% in the fourth quarter and Covid-19 having at least a similar impact in the current quarter, Japan will be in an, albeit 'technical', recession by the spring.In the DETAIL below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes. Part 2 will update our Results and Revision Scoring for the market, Sectors, Peer Groups and Companies.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT'S A WRAP! Part 1 - 2020-Q1 Earnings Results & Forecasts

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

What statistics are available suggest that Japan lags behind China, USA and the UK in terms of e-commerce penetration but this position overlooks the single-minded shift of retailing to integrate e-commerce with traditional retailing.
Japan still has much to offer customers in the high street and these physical stores are now being heavily supplemented through online channels. Already we’re seeing the role of some stores shift towards showrooms making management more efficient and meaningful.
Japan is set to see the e-commerce sector as big as 20% of retail sales by 2024 and many of the operational problems holding online retail back globally, such as last mile fulfilment, could well be solved first in Japan.
Amazon, Rakuten and Softbank/Z/Zozo dominate the market and this dominance looks set to continue but other players are growing too with some retailers also finally working out how to make e-commerce work.

What statistics are available suggest that Japan lags behind China, USA and the UK in terms of e-commerce penetration but this position overlooks the single-minded shift of retailing to integrate e-commerce with traditional retailing.
Japan still has much to offer customers in the high street and these physical stores are now being heavily supplemented through online channels. Already we’re seeing the role of some stores shift towards showrooms making management more efficient and meaningful.
Japan is set to see the e-commerce sector as big as 20% of retail sales by 2024 and many of the operational problems holding online retail back globally, such as last mile fulfilment, could well be solved first in Japan.
Amazon, Rakuten and Softbank/Z/Zozo dominate the market and this dominance looks set to continue but other players are growing too with some retailers also finally working out how to make e-commerce work.

Japanese E-Commerce Review 2020: Softbank/Z, Rakuten and Amazon to Dominate Further

As part of its recently held <a href="http://docomo-openhouse.jp/2020/en/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">open house on network R&amp;D</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-docomo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1" rel="noopener">NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP)</a> has released a white paper on 5G evolution and 6G.  The key takeaways from DoCoMo’s report are teething issues with 5G as network launches start plus a rough sketch of what mobile networks will look like beyond 2030.  That NTT DoCoMo issued this report is interesting because it highlights its position as the mobile operator with by far the most robust R&amp;D capability globally and a key partner for equipment vendors in determining mobile technology evolution. Unfortunately, the benefits of leadership are hard to quantify. On one hand, DoCoMo will be the first to 5G in Japan but even new entrant Rakuten with no existing network today will have 5G capability in the next few years.

As part of its recently held open house on network R&amp;D, NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) has released a white paper on 5G evolution and 6G.  The key takeaways from DoCoMo’s report are teething issues with 5G as network launches start plus a rough sketch of what mobile networks will look like beyond 2030.  That NTT DoCoMo issued this report is interesting because it highlights its position as the mobile operator with by far the most robust R&amp;D capability globally and a key partner for equipment vendors in determining mobile technology evolution. Unfortunately, the benefits of leadership are hard to quantify. On one hand, DoCoMo will be the first to 5G in Japan but even new entrant Rakuten with no existing network today will have 5G capability in the next few years. 

NTT DoCoMo Flags up Its 6G Vision. Yes, that Is a Six!

Japan

NTT DOCOMO, INC. provides various types of telecommunication services including cellular phones, satellite mobile communication, and wireless LAN Network. The Company also sells cellular phones, and other equipment.

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NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP)

Japan Telecoms: Drilling Down on Free Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns

Japanese telcos have plenty of financial flexibility and political/social cover to maintain current policies on returns to shareholders. We expect...

Kirk Boodry

Softbank Corp: Commercial 5G in Japan Arrives Later This Month

Softbank Corp (9434 JP) said today that it would launch commercial 5G services on 27 March with two handsets. Nominally, 5G will cost an...

Kirk Boodry

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT'S A WRAP! Part 1 - 2020-Q1 Earnings Results & Forecasts

A YEAR TO FORGET - The aggregate earnings of Japanese listed companies peaked on December 26th 2018 and, over the last five quarters, have declined...

Campbell Gunn

Japanese E-Commerce Review 2020: Softbank/Z, Rakuten and Amazon to Dominate Further

What statistics are available suggest that Japan lags behind China, USA and the UK in terms of e-commerce penetration but this position overlooks...

Michael Causton

NTT DoCoMo Flags up Its 6G Vision. Yes, that Is a Six!

As part of its recently held open house on network R&D, NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) has released a white paper on 5G evolution and 6G. The key...

Kirk Boodry

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