Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Kioxia Holdings  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> is aiming to raise around US$700m (including over-allocation) from its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>It was the world’s largest pure-play NAND flash memory supplier, in terms of both revenue and unit shipments in 2023, according to TechInsights.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company's past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) is aiming to raise around US$700m (including over-allocation) from its Japan IPO.
It was the world’s largest pure-play NAND flash memory supplier, in terms of both revenue and unit shipments in 2023, according to TechInsights.
We have looked at the company's past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we talk about valuations.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> is a leading player in the NAND flash memory market. It will list on 18 December and seek to raise up to US$727 million.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kioxia-285a-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:168216" rel="noopener">Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kioxia-285a-jp-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:168542" rel="noopener">Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bear Case</a>.</li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of JPY1,390-1,520 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) is a leading player in the NAND flash memory market. It will list on 18 December and seek to raise up to US$727 million.
We previously discussed the IPO in Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bull Case and Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bear Case.
Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of JPY1,390-1,520 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> is a leading player in the NAND flash memory market. It will list on 18 December and seek to raise up to US$740 million.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kioxia-285a-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:168216" rel="noopener">Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on unrealistic long-term financial model assumptions, market share losses, high customer concentration risk, volatile gross margin due to JV and weak FCF profile.</li>
</ul>



Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) is a leading player in the NAND flash memory market. It will list on 18 December and seek to raise up to US$740 million.
In Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on unrealistic long-term financial model assumptions, market share losses, high customer concentration risk, volatile gross margin due to JV and weak FCF profile.


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Memory Market Diverges: AI Demand Continues to Surges While Legacy Segments Struggle in November</li>
<li>Diverging Demand Trends Highlight Market Decoupling -- AI Driving HBM, Server DRAM, QLC NAND Demand</li>
<li>Outlook for the Memory Market -- Decoupling Trade: Long SK Hynix vs. Short Nanya Tech Trade</li>
</ul>


Memory Market Diverges: AI Demand Continues to Surges While Legacy Segments Struggle in November
Diverging Demand Trends Highlight Market Decoupling -- AI Driving HBM, Server DRAM, QLC NAND Demand
Outlook for the Memory Market -- Decoupling Trade: Long SK Hynix vs. Short Nanya Tech Trade


Memory Monitor: Decoupling Trade Long SK Hynix Vs. Short Nanya Tech

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> ’s long waited IPO is now live and plans to raise US$700m at a much lower valuation of US$4.8bn vs price paid by Bain 6-years ago.</li>
<li>The company’s IPO is very timely as earnings have almost approached the cycle peak, but margins have continued to trail peers who have a more balanced product portfolio.</li>
<li>Kioxia’s valuation has declined while market sentiment for memory names has also been that great. We will discuss our valuation in a follow-up insight. </li>
</ul>



Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) ’s long waited IPO is now live and plans to raise US$700m at a much lower valuation of US$4.8bn vs price paid by Bain 6-years ago.
The company’s IPO is very timely as earnings have almost approached the cycle peak, but margins have continued to trail peers who have a more balanced product portfolio.
Kioxia’s valuation has declined while market sentiment for memory names has also been that great. We will discuss our valuation in a follow-up insight. 


Kioxia IPO: Initial Thoughts on Financials and Valuation

United States

Western Digital Corporation is a global provider of solutions for the collection, storage, management, protection and use of digital content, including audio and video. The Company's products include hard drives, solid-state drives, and home entertainment and networking products.

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Western Digital (WDC US)

Kioxia Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuations

At the final price range kioxia still offers enough upside even from the top-end, even after we apply a discount to its valuation versus its listed...

Sumeet Singh

Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of JPY1,390-1,520 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on unrealistic long-term financial model assumptions, market share losses, high customer concentration risk, volatile gross...

Arun George

Memory Monitor: Decoupling Trade Long SK Hynix Vs. Short Nanya Tech

AI demand is driving growth in memory market, while legacy segments struggle, creating opportunities for investors to capitalize on decoupling...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Kioxia IPO: Initial Thoughts on Financials and Valuation

Kioxia's IPO is timely as earnings have almost approached the cycle peak, but the proposed valuation is at a huge discount to what Bain paid six...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Kioxia Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuations

At the final price range kioxia still offers enough upside even from the top-end, even after we apply a discount to its valuation versus its listed...

Sumeet Singh

Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of JPY1,390-1,520 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on unrealistic long-term financial model assumptions, market share losses, high customer concentration risk, volatile gross...

Arun George

Memory Monitor: Decoupling Trade Long SK Hynix Vs. Short Nanya Tech

​AI demand is driving growth in memory market, while legacy segments struggle, creating opportunities for investors to capitalize on decoupling...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Kioxia IPO: Initial Thoughts on Financials and Valuation

​Kioxia's IPO is timely as earnings have almost approached the cycle peak, but the proposed valuation is at a huge discount to what Bain paid six...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

AI demand is driving growth in memory market, while legacy segments struggle, creating opportunities for investors to capitalize on decoupling...

Kioxia's IPO is timely as earnings have almost approached the cycle peak, but the proposed valuation is at a huge discount to what Bain paid six...