Research from Asian Century Stocks, Asian Century Stocks

Michael Fritzell

Research from Asian Century Stocks

Providing financial journalism in the Asia-Pacific

Asian Century Stocks

Asian Century Stocks is a newsletter providing financial journalism for companies and stocks in the Asia-Pacific. 
The Asian Century Stocks logotype “百” stands for “one hundred” or a “century”. The economic centre of gravity is moving towards Asia. Yet most global investors are missing out.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Jefferies strategist Chris Wood made an interesting comment in his 4Q21 Asia Maxima report. He expressed a bullish view on Singaporean residential property developers, quoting a 40% discount to book and rapidly improving fundamentals. Here is a short report on the sector to figure out whether his bullishness is warranted or not.</p>
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<p>Supply &amp; demand for residential property is not necessarily out of sync. The 2009-2013 period was a bubble and should not be seen as a baseline.</p>
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<p>The retail, office and hospitality segments have suffered over the past two years due to cross-border travel restrictions, working from home during the pandemic and the threat from e-commerce. But several of these factors are one-off in nature.</p>
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<p>I see value in City Developments, given high-quality assets, excellent execution and an upside of almost +60% using reasonable assumptions.</p>
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<p>I’m also bullish on small-cap Bukit Sembawang, which sit on a valuable land bank and has won awards as one of the best property developers in Singapore.</p>
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Jefferies strategist Chris Wood made an interesting comment in his 4Q21 Asia Maxima report. He expressed a bullish view on Singaporean residential property developers, quoting a 40% discount to book and rapidly improving fundamentals. Here is a short report on the sector to figure out whether his bullishness is warranted or not.


Supply &amp; demand for residential property is not necessarily out of sync. The 2009-2013 period was a bubble and should not be seen as a baseline.


The retail, office and hospitality segments have suffered over the past two years due to cross-border travel restrictions, working from home during the pandemic and the threat from e-commerce. But several of these factors are one-off in nature.


I see value in City Developments, given high-quality assets, excellent execution and an upside of almost +60% using reasonable assumptions.


I’m also bullish on small-cap Bukit Sembawang, which sit on a valuable land bank and has won awards as one of the best property developers in Singapore.



Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), SCCM Asia Research

SCCM Asia Research

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Headquartered in Singapore, SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia) is an investment bank focusing on emerging growth companies across Asia, providing a full suite of investment banking services, including corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions advisory, equity capital markets, institutional equities sales and trading and equities research.

SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

<h2>Singapore</h2><h3><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitaland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55" rel="noopener">Capitaland (CAPL SP)</a> 3Q21 Business Updates – A good start with key metrics growing robustly</h3><ul><li>9M21 revenue came in at S$1.6bn with Fee income Related Business (FRB) making up 40% of total revenue and Real-estate investment business making up the remaining 60%. 9M21 FRB rose by 19% YoY to S$656m, with fund management rising by 35% YoY to S$292m, followed by property management rising by 2.6% YoY to S$236m and lodging management rising by 23% to S$128m, respectively     </li></ul>

SingaporeCapitaland (CAPL SP) 3Q21 Business Updates – A good start with key metrics growing robustly9M21 revenue came in at S$1.6bn with Fee income Related Business (FRB) making up 40% of total revenue and Real-estate investment business making up the remaining 60%. 9M21 FRB rose by 19% YoY to S$656m, with fund management rising by 35% YoY to S$292m, followed by property management rising by 2.6% YoY to S$236m and lodging management rising by 23% to S$128m, respectively     

<h2>Singapore</h2><h3><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-logistics-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16035" rel="noopener">Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP)</a> acquires logistics facility in South Korea at 4.2% NPI yield; Accretive to DPU</h3><ul><li>MLT has proposed an acquisition of Yeoju Logistics Centre in South Korea for KRW135bn (S$153.8m). The property spans over 70,400sqm in total GFA on ~56,200sqm of freehold land, with two blocks of 3-storey dry warehouses that were completed in 2019. The property is equipped with high quality building specifications, including strong floor loading of over 20kg newton psm, high floor-to-ceiling height of 10-17m, large contiguous floor plates of up to 14,200sqm and a full sprinkler system. The Property was independently valued at KRW139.6bn as at 2Sep21</li><li>The Property is strategically located in northern Yeoju, a newly established logistics hub situated northeast of the Yongin-Icheon market, which is the traditional logistics cluster in the Seoul Metropolitan Area. It is fully leased to one of South Korea’s largest online fashion platforms and a domestic third-party logistics service provider. The acquisition will raise MLT’s e-commerce revenue exposure in South Korea from 24% to 31%. It comes with a WALE (by NLA) of ~3.1yrs and built-in annual rent escalations</li><li>The acquisition is estimated to generate a NPI yield of 4.2% based on the property purchase price and is expected to be DPU accretive. Assuming the acquisition is 100% debt funded, MLT’s aggregate gearing ratio will be ~40.3%. The acquisition is expected to be completed by 4Q21. Upon completion, MLT’s total portfolio will comprise 167 properties with AUM of S$11.1bn.</li></ul>

SingaporeMapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP) acquires logistics facility in South Korea at 4.2% NPI yield; Accretive to DPUMLT has proposed an acquisition of Yeoju Logistics Centre in South Korea for KRW135bn (S$153.8m). The property spans over 70,400sqm in total GFA on ~56,200sqm of freehold land, with two blocks of 3-storey dry warehouses that were completed in 2019. The property is equipped with high quality building specifications, including strong floor loading of over 20kg newton psm, high floor-to-ceiling height of 10-17m, large contiguous floor plates of up to 14,200sqm and a full sprinkler system. The Property was independently valued at KRW139.6bn as at 2Sep21The Property is strategically located in northern Yeoju, a newly established logistics hub situated northeast of the Yongin-Icheon market, which is the traditional logistics cluster in the Seoul Metropolitan Area. It is fully leased to one of South Korea’s largest online fashion platforms and a domestic third-party logistics service provider. The acquisition will raise MLT’s e-commerce revenue exposure in South Korea from 24% to 31%. It comes with a WALE (by NLA) of ~3.1yrs and built-in annual rent escalationsThe acquisition is estimated to generate a NPI yield of 4.2% based on the property purchase price and is expected to be DPU accretive. Assuming the acquisition is 100% debt funded, MLT’s aggregate gearing ratio will be ~40.3%. The acquisition is expected to be completed by 4Q21. Upon completion, MLT’s total portfolio will comprise 167 properties with AUM of S$11.1bn.

<h2>Singapore</h2><h3>IOI Properties (IOIPG MK) S$1.508bn sole bid for Marina View white site</h3><p>The white site along Marina View earmarked largely for private residences and hotel use drew just one bid at tender at S$1.508bn or S$1,379psf per plot ratio from a wholly-owned unit of IOIPG, and was just S$101 more than the price at which the group successfully applied for the site to be released from the reserve list of the 1H21 GLS Programme. The 0.78ha (about 84,000sqft) site can generate a maximum GFA of 1.09m sqft. Of this, at least 548,959sqft has to be for residential use and at least 279,861sqft for hotel use. The project can have up to 21,528sqft for optional office space and up to 21,528sqft of space for other commercial uses (including retail and F&amp;B). Most developers may have been put off by the huge total development cost, which a veteran developer estimates at S$2.3bn. Moreover, the development period for the Marina View site is likely to be longer than usual. The URA has stipulated a seven-year project completion period, compared with the usual five years for a typical residential development site.</p>

SingaporeIOI Properties (IOIPG MK) S$1.508bn sole bid for Marina View white siteThe white site along Marina View earmarked largely for private residences and hotel use drew just one bid at tender at S$1.508bn or S$1,379psf per plot ratio from a wholly-owned unit of IOIPG, and was just S$101 more than the price at which the group successfully applied for the site to be released from the reserve list of the 1H21 GLS Programme. The 0.78ha (about 84,000sqft) site can generate a maximum GFA of 1.09m sqft. Of this, at least 548,959sqft has to be for residential use and at least 279,861sqft for hotel use. The project can have up to 21,528sqft for optional office space and up to 21,528sqft of space for other commercial uses (including retail and F&amp;B). Most developers may have been put off by the huge total development cost, which a veteran developer estimates at S$2.3bn. Moreover, the development period for the Marina View site is likely to be longer than usual. The URA has stipulated a seven-year project completion period, compared with the usual five years for a typical residential development site.

<h2>Singapore</h2><h3><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ascott-residence-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6560" rel="noopener">Ascott Residence Trust (ART SP)</a> acquires student accommodation property in Texas for US$70m; 5.1% EBITDA yield</h3><ul><li>ART has entered into a conditional sale and purchase agreement to acquire a student accommodation property located in Texas, USA for US$70m (~S$93.8m). Based on the independent valuation, the property is valued at US$72.0m (~S$96.5m). The property is a freehold, off-campus facility with 1,005 beds and serves Texas Tech University and is 100% leased for the 2021 academic year. Texas Tech University has over 40,000 students</li><li>On a pro forma basis, the acquisition is expected to contribute additional EBITDA of US$3.6m (~S$4.8m), translating to an expected EBITDA yield of 5.1%, and increase distributable income by S$3.3m for FY20, translating to an increase in pro forma distribution per stapled security of ~1.5%</li><li>Completion is subject to and conditional upon, the fulfilment of the conditions precedent in the Sale and Purchase Agreement and is expected to take place on or around 21Sep. ART proposes to finance the total acquisition costs from the private placement to raise gross proceeds of ~S$150.0m and debt financing. Following completion of the acquisition, ART’s aggregate leverage would remain at 35.9%.</li></ul>

SingaporeAscott Residence Trust (ART SP) acquires student accommodation property in Texas for US$70m; 5.1% EBITDA yieldART has entered into a conditional sale and purchase agreement to acquire a student accommodation property located in Texas, USA for US$70m (~S$93.8m). Based on the independent valuation, the property is valued at US$72.0m (~S$96.5m). The property is a freehold, off-campus facility with 1,005 beds and serves Texas Tech University and is 100% leased for the 2021 academic year. Texas Tech University has over 40,000 studentsOn a pro forma basis, the acquisition is expected to contribute additional EBITDA of US$3.6m (~S$4.8m), translating to an expected EBITDA yield of 5.1%, and increase distributable income by S$3.3m for FY20, translating to an increase in pro forma distribution per stapled security of ~1.5%Completion is subject to and conditional upon, the fulfilment of the conditions precedent in the Sale and Purchase Agreement and is expected to take place on or around 21Sep. ART proposes to finance the total acquisition costs from the private placement to raise gross proceeds of ~S$150.0m and debt financing. Following completion of the acquisition, ART’s aggregate leverage would remain at 35.9%.

Singapore

Oxley Holdings Limited is a Singapore-based property development company with a diversified portfolio that includes property development, property investment, and project management. The company specializes in residential, commercial, industrial, and hospitality projects across Singapore, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Cambodia, Malaysia, and China. Oxley Holdings Limited was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Singapore.

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Oxley (OHL SP)

Singapore Residential Property

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