Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 28/Feb, US crude inventories increased by 3.6m barrels, contradicting expectations of a 0.6m barrel decline. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly dropped.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 80 Bcf for the week ending 28/Feb, lower than analyst expectations of a 96 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.3% below the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Aramco's 2024 net profit fell 12.4% YoY on lower crude prices and weak margins. The Trump administration gives Chevron 30 days to end Venezuelan oil operations.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 28/Feb, US crude inventories increased by 3.6m barrels, contradicting expectations of a 0.6m barrel decline. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly dropped.
US natural gas inventories fell by 80 Bcf for the week ending 28/Feb, lower than analyst expectations of a 96 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.3% below the 5-year seasonal average.
Aramco's 2024 net profit fell 12.4% YoY on lower crude prices and weak margins. The Trump administration gives Chevron 30 days to end Venezuelan oil operations.


[ETP 2025/10] WTI Continues to Slide, Henry Hub Rises on Improved Demand Outlook

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a>, S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index for the March rebalance will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>There will also be capping changes for the Select Sector indices that will result in a round-trip trade of US$13.1bn. Constituent changes will add to that flow.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOGL US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electronic-arts-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1179:1" rel="noopener">Electronic Arts</a>. Largest outflows are from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta Platforms</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/linde-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35233:1" rel="noopener">Linde</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcdonald-s-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1425:1" rel="noopener">Mcdonald's Corp</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/take-two-interactive-software-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14948:1" rel="noopener">Take Two Interactive</a>.</li>
</ul>


Constituent changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index for the March rebalance will be announced after market close on Friday.
There will also be capping changes for the Select Sector indices that will result in a round-trip trade of US$13.1bn. Constituent changes will add to that flow.
The largest inflows will be in Amazon.com, Tesla, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Alphabet (GOOGL US) and Electronic Arts. Largest outflows are from Broadcom, Meta Platforms, Linde, Mcdonald's Corp and Take Two Interactive.


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes & US$13bn Trade

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 21/Feb, U.S. crude inventories dropped by 2.3m barrels, contradicting expectations of a 2.5m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose, while distillate stocks surged more than expected.</li>
<li>U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 261 Bcf for the week ending 21/Feb, lower than analyst expectations of a 276 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.5% below the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>BP pivots back to fossil fuels, cutting renewables and reducing its quarterly buyback to USD 0.75 billion from USD 1.75 billion. President Trump revoked Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 21/Feb, U.S. crude inventories dropped by 2.3m barrels, contradicting expectations of a 2.5m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose, while distillate stocks surged more than expected.
U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 261 Bcf for the week ending 21/Feb, lower than analyst expectations of a 276 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.5% below the 5-year seasonal average.
BP pivots back to fossil fuels, cutting renewables and reducing its quarterly buyback to USD 0.75 billion from USD 1.75 billion. President Trump revoked Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela.


[ETP 2025/09] WTI Drops on Trade Tensions, Henry Hub Falls to Forecasts of Milder Temperatures

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: 2nd success at bypassed carbonate formation intervals boosts production to >12 mboe/d - Condor has successfully perforated and brought online bypassed carbonate formations at a second well.</li><li>As a result, production has increased from 11,455 boe/d reported last week to an average of 12,004 boe/d over the last six days.</li><li>Using a combination of legacy data and reprocessed 3-D seismic data, five additional well candidates with similar geologic characteristics have been identified.</li></ul>

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: 2nd success at bypassed carbonate formation intervals boosts production to >12 mboe/d - Condor has successfully perforated and brought online bypassed carbonate formations at a second well.As a result, production has increased from 11,455 boe/d reported last week to an average of 12,004 boe/d over the last six days.Using a combination of legacy data and reprocessed 3-D seismic data, five additional well candidates with similar geologic characteristics have been identified.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BP’s Q4 revenue declined 12.3% YoY, missing estimates by 2.6%, while EPS fell 58.9% YoY and missed estimates by 3.4%. Underlying net profit dropped 60.9% YoY to USD 1.17 billion.</li>
<li>Elliott acquired a 5% stake in BP, becoming its third-largest shareholder. The activist fund is likely to push for a stronger focus on fossil fuels and a pullback on renewables.</li>
<li>BP's Q4 cash flow dropped 20.8% YoY to USD 7.4 billion, while net debt climbed 10% to USD 23 billion. Despite this, it announced a USD 1.75 billion share buyback.</li>
</ul>


BP’s Q4 revenue declined 12.3% YoY, missing estimates by 2.6%, while EPS fell 58.9% YoY and missed estimates by 3.4%. Underlying net profit dropped 60.9% YoY to USD 1.17 billion.
Elliott acquired a 5% stake in BP, becoming its third-largest shareholder. The activist fund is likely to push for a stronger focus on fossil fuels and a pullback on renewables.
BP's Q4 cash flow dropped 20.8% YoY to USD 7.4 billion, while net debt climbed 10% to USD 23 billion. Despite this, it announced a USD 1.75 billion share buyback.


[Earnings Review] BP Reports Weakest Profit Since 2020, but Elliott’s Stake Sparks a Rally

United States

Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company with operations in countries located around the world.  The Company produces and transports crude oil and natural gas.  Chevron also refines, markets, and distributes fuels as well as is involved in chemical operations, mining operations, power generation and energy services.

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Chevron Corp (CVX US)

[ETP 2025/10] WTI Continues to Slide, Henry Hub Rises on Improved Demand Outlook

US crude inventories rose, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell. Natural gas inventories fell below expectations. Aramco's 2024 profit...

Mint Finance

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes & US$13bn Trade

Capping changes for the Select Sector indices will result in a round-trip trade of US$13bn. Constituent changes will be announced after market...

Brian Freitas

[ETP 2025/09] WTI Drops on Trade Tensions, Henry Hub Falls to Forecasts of Milder Temperatures

US oil inventories drop, defying expectations. Natural gas inventories fall below analyst predictions. BP shifts focus back to fossil fuels, Trump...

Mint Finance

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 28/02/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: 2nd success at bypassed...

Auctus Advisors

[Earnings Review] BP Reports Weakest Profit Since 2020, but Elliott’s Stake Sparks a Rally

BP's revenue and EPS decline, Elliott acquires stake in BP, pushing for focus on fossil fuels, cash flow drops but announces share buyback.

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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[ETP 2025/10] WTI Continues to Slide, Henry Hub Rises on Improved Demand Outlook

​US crude inventories rose, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell. Natural gas inventories fell below expectations. Aramco's 2024 profit...

Mint Finance

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes & US$13bn Trade

Capping changes for the Select Sector indices will result in a round-trip trade of US$13bn. Constituent changes will be announced after market...

Brian Freitas

[ETP 2025/09] WTI Drops on Trade Tensions, Henry Hub Falls to Forecasts of Milder Temperatures

​US oil inventories drop, defying expectations. Natural gas inventories fall below analyst predictions. BP shifts focus back to fossil fuels, Trump...

Mint Finance

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 28/02/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: 2nd success at bypassed...

Auctus Advisors

[Earnings Review] BP Reports Weakest Profit Since 2020, but Elliott’s Stake Sparks a Rally

​BP's revenue and EPS decline, Elliott acquires stake in BP, pushing for focus on fossil fuels, cash flow drops but announces share buyback.

Mint Finance

US crude inventories rose, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell. Natural gas inventories fell below expectations. Aramco's 2024 profit...

US oil inventories drop, defying expectations. Natural gas inventories fall below analyst predictions. BP shifts focus back to fossil fuels, Trump...

BP's revenue and EPS decline, Elliott acquires stake in BP, pushing for focus on fossil fuels, cash flow drops but announces share buyback.