Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>KLA’s annual revenue grew 12% in 2024, 17% in 2025, and is on track for low-20% growth in 2026. Operating profits have expanded by ~400 basis points over this timeframe.</li>
<li>I think growth rates into 2027 are probably in a similar range, maybe higher.  Our backlog is very strong. We just disclosed our backlog of $12.6 billion in our 10-K</li>
<li>KLA’s share of advanced packaging inspection/metrology market rose from ~2% in 2023 to roughly 7%–8% in 2026. This business is growing 70% YoY (~$1.1 billion), roughly 2x market growth rate.</li>
</ul>


KLA’s annual revenue grew 12% in 2024, 17% in 2025, and is on track for low-20% growth in 2026. Operating profits have expanded by ~400 basis points over this timeframe.
I think growth rates into 2027 are probably in a similar range, maybe higher.  Our backlog is very strong. We just disclosed our backlog of $12.6 billion in our 10-K
KLA’s share of advanced packaging inspection/metrology market rose from ~2% in 2023 to roughly 7%–8% in 2026. This business is growing 70% YoY (~$1.1 billion), roughly 2x market growth rate.


KLA Corporation (KLAC) @ Citi Global TMT Conference. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Stocks dropped sharply on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average experiencing its worst day in over a month</li>
<li>All three major indexes logged their third consecutive day of losses on soaring Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield hitting 4.25%</li>
<li>Lam Research (LRCX US)  shares rose nearly 4% after hours following better-than-expected Q1 earnings and revenue.</li>
</ul>


Stocks dropped sharply on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average experiencing its worst day in over a month
All three major indexes logged their third consecutive day of losses on soaring Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield hitting 4.25%
Lam Research (LRCX US)  shares rose nearly 4% after hours following better-than-expected Q1 earnings and revenue.


Global TMT Analyst, Ex-PM, 30 years experience

Neil Campling

<ul>
<li>EV demand slump prompts CATL production cuts, lithium prices fall below breakeven</li>
<li>What happened to Nvidia's MOAT? AMD is gaining inference traction </li>
<li>Samsung issues at 2nm and 4nm and TSM continues to widen tech leadership. TSM as a Monopsony could hurt TEL and ASML in time</li>
</ul>


EV demand slump prompts CATL production cuts, lithium prices fall below breakeven
What happened to Nvidia's MOAT? AMD is gaining inference traction 
Samsung issues at 2nm and 4nm and TSM continues to widen tech leadership. TSM as a Monopsony could hurt TEL and ASML in time


TMT Daily - EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul>
<li>Some more minor data points and highlights: KLIC (ball bonders) says that utilization is 75-80%, which is a good read on China despite the negative industrial headwind.</li>
<li>Allegro Microsystems is definitely scraping the bottom, and while Sanken (its distributor) is still increasing its inventory, I like the setup there.</li>
<li>Arrow Electronics (Distributor) says things are improving, which is a big counterpoint to everything else.</li>
</ul>


Some more minor data points and highlights: KLIC (ball bonders) says that utilization is 75-80%, which is a good read on China despite the negative industrial headwind.
Allegro Microsystems is definitely scraping the bottom, and while Sanken (its distributor) is still increasing its inventory, I like the setup there.
Arrow Electronics (Distributor) says things are improving, which is a big counterpoint to everything else.


Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>DOW +0.59%, Russell -1.06%, SPX -1.39%, Nasdaq -2.77%, SOX -6.81% as investors shifted from growth to value stocks. UST10 was flat at 4.16%, and the yen strengthened to Y156.18.</li>
<li>Commodities were mixed with copper -0.3%, nickel -0.83%, and Brent +1.72%. Energy and consumer staples rose, with VSF +13.6% after Essilor Luxottica agreed to buy Supreme. US homebuilders lost ground. </li>
<li>Tech stocks fell sharply after ASML's earnings missed estimates and news of potential US export restrictions to China. Focus on SPE names with high China exposure as shorts.</li>
</ul>


DOW +0.59%, Russell -1.06%, SPX -1.39%, Nasdaq -2.77%, SOX -6.81% as investors shifted from growth to value stocks. UST10 was flat at 4.16%, and the yen strengthened to Y156.18.
Commodities were mixed with copper -0.3%, nickel -0.83%, and Brent +1.72%. Energy and consumer staples rose, with VSF +13.6% after Essilor Luxottica agreed to buy Supreme. US homebuilders lost ground. 
Tech stocks fell sharply after ASML's earnings missed estimates and news of potential US export restrictions to China. Focus on SPE names with high China exposure as shorts.


Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

United States

Lam Research Corporation manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the making of integrated circuits.  The Company's products are used to deposit special films on a silicon wafer and etch away portions of various films to create a circuit design.  Lam sells its products around the world.

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Lam Research (LRCX US)

KLA Corporation (KLAC) @ Citi Global TMT Conference. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

KLA’s share of advanced packaging inspection/metrology market rose from ~2% in 2023 to roughly 7%–8% in 2026. This business is growing 70% YoY...

William Keating

Ohayo Japan | Day 3 of Losses

Stocks plummet as Dow Jones has worst day in over a month due to soaring Treasury yields, while Lam Research shares surge on strong Q1 results.

Mark Chadwick

TMT Daily - EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

CATL cuts as lithium falls below cash cost as EVs slump. AMD traction in inference v Nvidia. Samsung woes at both 4nm and 2nm, TSM widens lead....

Neil Campling

Earnings: ALGM, LRCX, TOLEY, NVMI, ONTO

Hello, this is a slightly more relaxed week of earnings. I’m going to focus a lot on Allegro and then mention some high-level reads. I’ll keep...

Fabricated Knowledge

Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...

Andrew Jackson

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

KLA Corporation (KLAC) @ Citi Global TMT Conference. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

KLA’s share of advanced packaging inspection/metrology market rose from ~2% in 2023 to roughly 7%–8% in 2026. This business is growing 70% YoY...

William Keating

Ohayo Japan | Day 3 of Losses

​Stocks plummet as Dow Jones has worst day in over a month due to soaring Treasury yields, while Lam Research shares surge on strong Q1 results.

Mark Chadwick

TMT Daily - EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

​CATL cuts as lithium falls below cash cost as EVs slump. AMD traction in inference v Nvidia. Samsung woes at both 4nm and 2nm, TSM widens lead....

Neil Campling

Earnings: ALGM, LRCX, TOLEY, NVMI, ONTO

Hello, this is a slightly more relaxed week of earnings. I’m going to focus a lot on Allegro and then mention some high-level reads. I’ll keep...

Fabricated Knowledge

Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

​Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...

Andrew Jackson

Stocks plummet as Dow Jones has worst day in over a month due to soaring Treasury yields, while Lam Research shares surge on strong Q1 results.

CATL cuts as lithium falls below cash cost as EVs slump. AMD traction in inference v Nvidia. Samsung woes at both 4nm and 2nm, TSM widens lead....

Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...