AI and Energy Infrastructure, Explained Plainly, The Physical Layer

The Physical Layer

AI and Energy Infrastructure, Explained Plainly

A journal on the physical constraints behind the AI buildout: power, grid connection, data centres, cooling and the supply chains that gate them. Written to be understood by anyone.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Nvidia's B200, one of the chips behind today's AI boom, is designed in California but built by dozens of companies in at least five countries.</li><li>Some of those suppliers could be swapped out in months.</li><li>Others would take years, because a replacement needs new factories or years of testing before anyone trusts it.</li></ul>

Nvidia's B200, one of the chips behind today's AI boom, is designed in California but built by dozens of companies in at least five countries.Some of those suppliers could be swapped out in months.Others would take years, because a replacement needs new factories or years of testing before anyone trusts it.

Nobody makes an Nvidia B200 alone, and the weak links are measured in years

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>During MOI correction period, global semi equipment and manufacturing vendors might under-perform semi product companies on sales/earnings and share price performance in next 6 months given utilization remains below 80%.</li>
<li>A healthy MOI correction in PC/smartphone semi might result in global logic MOI to fall to 3.7-3.8 months in 3Q23, down 15% q/q and 8% y/y, heading to historical low. </li>
<li>China fabless reduced MOI to 6.4 months in 3Q23, down 16% q/q and 26% y/y. Although 2x over 3.5 months low, we expect 4-5 months in future due to restrictions.</li>
</ul>


During MOI correction period, global semi equipment and manufacturing vendors might under-perform semi product companies on sales/earnings and share price performance in next 6 months given utilization remains below 80%.
A healthy MOI correction in PC/smartphone semi might result in global logic MOI to fall to 3.7-3.8 months in 3Q23, down 15% q/q and 8% y/y, heading to historical low. 
China fabless reduced MOI to 6.4 months in 3Q23, down 16% q/q and 26% y/y. Although 2x over 3.5 months low, we expect 4-5 months in future due to restrictions.


More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.</li>
<li>
No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.</li>
<li>Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.

No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.


What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

CEO / Founder, Crea8

Kim-Hwa Lim

CEO / Founder

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Crea8

Crea8 blends AI-driven precision, big data scalability, and rigorous quantitative frameworks with seasoned human insight. By extracting actionable intelligence from vast global datasets, we eliminate emotional bias and deliver optimal risk-adjusted returns. Our hybrid approach uncovers hidden market efficiencies and ensures your capital is dynamically positioned across markets.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The strategy seeks to invest in a subset of stocks owned by globally renowned fund managers.</li><li>By adopting a portfolio of stocks instead of individual stocks, the strategy is diversified across countries and industries; and optimised with respect to their expected risks and returns.</li><li>Previous portfolio returned -0.5% vs. MSCI World (-1.3%) – outperformed the benchmark by 0.8%.</li></ul>

The strategy seeks to invest in a subset of stocks owned by globally renowned fund managers.By adopting a portfolio of stocks instead of individual stocks, the strategy is diversified across countries and industries; and optimised with respect to their expected risks and returns.Previous portfolio returned -0.5% vs. MSCI World (-1.3%) – outperformed the benchmark by 0.8%.

Global Top Fund Managers Portfolio (14-Sep-2026)

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Lam Research Corporation reported strong financial results for the June 2026 quarter, marked by record revenue, operating margin, and earnings per share.</li><li>The company’s revenue reached $6.72 billion, a 15% sequential increase and 30% rise year-over-year, driven chiefly by a doubling of NAND revenue and robust growth in its customer support business group (CSBG).</li><li>NAND revenue growth reflected demand tied to upgrades to 200-plus layer flash devices, instrumental in enterprise SSDs. Meanwhile, DRAM revenue remained stable, supported by wafer additions and technology upgrades.</li></ul>

Lam Research Corporation reported strong financial results for the June 2026 quarter, marked by record revenue, operating margin, and earnings per share.The company’s revenue reached $6.72 billion, a 15% sequential increase and 30% rise year-over-year, driven chiefly by a doubling of NAND revenue and robust growth in its customer support business group (CSBG).NAND revenue growth reflected demand tied to upgrades to 200-plus layer flash devices, instrumental in enterprise SSDs. Meanwhile, DRAM revenue remained stable, supported by wafer additions and technology upgrades.

Lam Research Corporation’s $6.72 Billion Quarter — AI & NAND Fuel Record Results!

United States

Lam Research Corporation manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the making of integrated circuits.  The Company's products are used to deposit special films on a silicon wafer and etch away portions of various films to create a circuit design.  Lam sells its products around the world.

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Lam Research (LRCX US)

Nobody makes an Nvidia B200 alone, and the weak links are measured in years

Nvidia's B200, one of the chips behind today's AI boom, is designed in California but built by dozens of companies in at least five countries.

The Physical Layer

More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction

More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction. During the period, global semi equipment and manufacturing...

Andrew Lu

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

Global Top Fund Managers Portfolio (14-Sep-2026)

The strategy seeks to invest in a subset of stocks owned by globally renowned fund managers. By adopting a portfolio of stocks instead of...

Crea8

Lam Research Corporation’s $6.72 Billion Quarter — AI & NAND Fuel Record Results!

Lam Research Corporation reported strong financial results for the June 2026 quarter, marked by record revenue, operating margin, and earnings per...

Baptista Research

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