External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

Semen Indonesia (Gresik) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>SMGR reported 4Q24 net profit of almost Rp0, leading to FY24 net profit of Rp720bn (-67% yoy, 62%/59% of ours/cons hence, a miss).</li><li>Due to market share strategy, we expect SMGR vol to grow by 2%/3% in FY25F/FY26F (higher than INTP), yet we expect ASP to grow by 0.5%.</li><li>We cut our FY25F/FY26F EPS by 23%/23%. Despite this and ASP risk, we upgrade our rating to Buy amid buyback and depressed valuation.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SMGR reported 4Q24 net profit of almost Rp0, leading to FY24 net profit of Rp720bn (-67% yoy, 62%/59% of ours/cons hence, a miss).Due to market share strategy, we expect SMGR vol to grow by 2%/3% in FY25F/FY26F (higher than INTP), yet we expect ASP to grow by 0.5%.We cut our FY25F/FY26F EPS by 23%/23%. Despite this and ASP risk, we upgrade our rating to Buy amid buyback and depressed valuation.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semen Indonesia (SMGR.IJ) Trimming Forecasts Post 4Q24 Earnings Miss

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. </li>
<li>GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. </li>
<li>Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.</li>
</ul>


The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. 
GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. 
Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.


CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Foreign flows reversed; Poultry and Metals outperformed. After four consecutive weeks of inflows (US$680mn), foreign equity flows reversed to -US$254mn, partly driven by last week’s street protests, despite signs of deescalation this week.</li><li>Foreign investors have continued to de-risk on largecap banks, namely BBCA (-US$195mn w-w, YTD: US$1.4bn) and BMRI (- US$45mn w-w, YTD: US$814mn).</li><li>Despite this, JCI managed to close +0.5% on the week, supported by metals sectors (ANTM +12% w-w, AMMN +3%, MDKA +6%), and conglomerate groups stocks (+DSSA +7% w-w, EMTK +7%, SMMA). ttractive at 11.9x P/E (-1.5SD to 5-year mean), following underperformance (-14% YTD).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Foreign flows reversed; Poultry and Metals outperformed. After four consecutive weeks of inflows (US$680mn), foreign equity flows reversed to -US$254mn, partly driven by last week’s street protests, despite signs of deescalation this week.Foreign investors have continued to de-risk on largecap banks, namely BBCA (-US$195mn w-w, YTD: US$1.4bn) and BMRI (- US$45mn w-w, YTD: US$814mn).Despite this, JCI managed to close +0.5% on the week, supported by metals sectors (ANTM +12% w-w, AMMN +3%, MDKA +6%), and conglomerate groups stocks (+DSSA +7% w-w, EMTK +7%, SMMA). ttractive at 11.9x P/E (-1.5SD to 5-year mean), following underperformance (-14% YTD).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the week – Metal sector vs. gold price

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>1H25 overall volume to remain subdued at -1%yoy; 2H25 potentially recover (~+1%yoy), mainly driven by gov’t spending acceleration.</li><li>Cost-efficiency remains a key competitive edge, especially amid a pricesensitive market and relatively benign input prices.</li><li>We are Neutral on the sector, as LT catalysts for solving the oversupply problem have yet to be seen. INTP remains our Top Pick.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

1H25 overall volume to remain subdued at -1%yoy; 2H25 potentially recover (~+1%yoy), mainly driven by gov’t spending acceleration.Cost-efficiency remains a key competitive edge, especially amid a pricesensitive market and relatively benign input prices.We are Neutral on the sector, as LT catalysts for solving the oversupply problem have yet to be seen. INTP remains our Top Pick.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement: Lack of Long-Term Catalysts Despite 2H25 Potential Recovery

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Domestic consumption contracted by -4.6% YoY in May-25, primarily attributable to a -5.8% YoY decline in the bulk segment.</li><li>Notably, regions outside Java recorded a substantial -17.4% YoY drop in bulk cement volumes, largely reflecting a normalization in demand following earlier acceleration from the National Capital (IKN) development project.</li><li>In contrast, the bulk market in Java continued to show resilience, registering stable growth of +1.6% YoY.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Domestic consumption contracted by -4.6% YoY in May-25, primarily attributable to a -5.8% YoY decline in the bulk segment.Notably, regions outside Java recorded a substantial -17.4% YoY drop in bulk cement volumes, largely reflecting a normalization in demand following earlier acceleration from the National Capital (IKN) development project.In contrast, the bulk market in Java continued to show resilience, registering stable growth of +1.6% YoY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indonesia

PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk manufactures cement including portland cement, oil well cement, and mixed cement. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops and operates an industrial estate, mines limestone and clay, and packages and distributes cement.

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Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ)

Semen Indonesia (SMGR.IJ) Trimming Forecasts Post 4Q24 Earnings Miss

SMGR reported 4Q24 net profit of almost Rp0, leading to FY24 net profit of Rp720bn (-67% yoy, 62%/59% of ours/cons hence, a miss).

BRI Danareksa Research

CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new...

Angus Mackintosh

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the week – Metal sector vs. gold price

Foreign investors have continued to de-risk on largecap banks, namely BBCA (-US$195mn w-w, YTD: US$1.4bn) and BMRI (- US$45mn w-w, YTD: US$814mn).

BRI Danareksa Research

Cement: Lack of Long-Term Catalysts Despite 2H25 Potential Recovery

1H25 overall volume to remain subdued at -1%yoy; 2H25 potentially recover (~+1%yoy), mainly driven by gov’t spending acceleration.

BRI Danareksa Research

Cement Sectoral Update June 30, 2025

Domestic consumption contracted by -4.6% YoY in May-25, primarily attributable to a -5.8% YoY decline in the bulk segment.

MNC Sekuritas

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