Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The Fed injected some volatility into the market after their December meeting, as they noted an uncertain inflation outlook and the SEP less expected rate cuts for 2025.</li>
<li>We discussed in our latest report (12/23/24 ETF Pathfinder), and continue to believe, that this is a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>Market dynamics remain risk-on, the SPX remains above 5850 (a key support level we have discussed since late-November), mid-caps (IJH) and small-caps (IWM) are above supports at $61.50 and $218</li>
</ul>


The Fed injected some volatility into the market after their December meeting, as they noted an uncertain inflation outlook and the SEP less expected rate cuts for 2025.
We discussed in our latest report (12/23/24 ETF Pathfinder), and continue to believe, that this is a buying opportunity.
Market dynamics remain risk-on, the SPX remains above 5850 (a key support level we have discussed since late-November), mid-caps (IJH) and small-caps (IWM) are above supports at $61.50 and $218


Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>CES portfolio rebalancing happening at the beginning of the year</li><li>Predictions for semiconductor and tech industry in 2025</li><li>Expectations for aerospace and military spending, as well as developments in AR glasses and foldable iPhones</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

CES portfolio rebalancing happening at the beginning of the yearPredictions for semiconductor and tech industry in 2025Expectations for aerospace and military spending, as well as developments in AR glasses and foldable iPhonesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 99: Semis Outlook for 2025 - Bullishness Remains

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>AI server BBU status being monitored to ensure no issues on the artificial intelligence server, ensuring smooth operations.</li><li>TSMC's global update highlights Japan, US, and Europe's progress, showcasing Taiwan's chip giant's influence worldwide.</li><li>Xiaomi investing in GPU cluster for faster processing, China's Hua Hong appoints Intel veteran as President, South Korea investing $24.79 million in chip R&amp;D projects.</li></ul>

AI server BBU status being monitored to ensure no issues on the artificial intelligence server, ensuring smooth operations.TSMC's global update highlights Japan, US, and Europe's progress, showcasing Taiwan's chip giant's influence worldwide.Xiaomi investing in GPU cluster for faster processing, China's Hua Hong appoints Intel veteran as President, South Korea investing $24.79 million in chip R&amp;D projects.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (03-Jan-2025): Check AI server BBU status.

Luxshare Precision Industry / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Potential Huawei sanctions under a reelected Trump administration could spell trouble for Chinese tech companies.</li><li>Luxshare's acquisition of nine Wingtech ODM subsidiaries indicates a consolidation trend in the tech manufacturing industry.</li><li>The 2025 semiconductor boom is expected to be fueled by AI technology, but could face volatility due to Trump-era policies.</li></ul>

Potential Huawei sanctions under a reelected Trump administration could spell trouble for Chinese tech companies.Luxshare's acquisition of nine Wingtech ODM subsidiaries indicates a consolidation trend in the tech manufacturing industry.The 2025 semiconductor boom is expected to be fueled by AI technology, but could face volatility due to Trump-era policies.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (01-Jan-2025): Trump could bring back Huawei sanctions 2.0

<ul><li>GB200 NVL shipments expected to increase as KYEC boosts capital expenditure, impacting notebook shipments in November 2024.</li><li>Taiwan wafer foundry industry developments in 4Q 2024 to be discussed at TSMC investor meeting, focusing on company outlook and new US tariff policies.</li><li>South Korea's acceleration of Yongin semiconductor complex aims to establish global chip leadership, attracting key industry players amidst global semiconductor shifts and US-China chip sector investigation; Taiwan targets AI growth with SEMI's Indian Semiconductor Academy plan.</li></ul>

GB200 NVL shipments expected to increase as KYEC boosts capital expenditure, impacting notebook shipments in November 2024.Taiwan wafer foundry industry developments in 4Q 2024 to be discussed at TSMC investor meeting, focusing on company outlook and new US tariff policies.South Korea's acceleration of Yongin semiconductor complex aims to establish global chip leadership, attracting key industry players amidst global semiconductor shifts and US-China chip sector investigation; Taiwan targets AI growth with SEMI's Indian Semiconductor Academy plan.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (31-Dec-2024): GB200 NVL shipments to rise with KYEC's capex boost.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish

Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership $SMH $TSM $NVDA; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish Despite Recent Consolidation. Market Dynamics Remain...

Vermilion Research

Episode 99: Semis Outlook for 2025 - Bullishness Remains

Discussion on stock portfolio rebalancing and technology trends for 2025, including AI, semiconductor, and AR glasses markets, with predictions on...

The Circuit

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (03-Jan-2025): Check AI server BBU status.

Global AI and chip industry updates: TSMC flourishing, Xiaomi investing in LLM, Hua Hong's new President, South Korea's R&D projects, Micron's...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (01-Jan-2025): Trump could bring back Huawei sanctions 2.0

Potential Huawei sanctions if Trump remains in office, Luxshare acquisition of Wingtech ODM subsidiaries, 2025 semiconductor growth driven by AI,...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (31-Dec-2024): GB200 NVL shipments to rise with KYEC's capex boost.

November 2024 sees increasing GB200 NVL notebook shipments as Taiwan wafer foundry industry develops, TSMC investor meeting discusses new US tariff...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)