Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Capital Markets

Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma</li>
<li>In this cut, we look through the <em>bubble </em>in Chinese tea company listings, the recent entertainment provided by Japanese M&amp;A situations and the varied ways analysts look at TSMC on Smartkarma</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you think should be highlighted next time</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we look through the bubble in Chinese tea company listings, the recent entertainment provided by Japanese M&amp;A situations and the varied ways analysts look at TSMC on Smartkarma
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you think should be highlighted next time


Curator's Cut: "Bubble" Tea, Japan M&A 🍿& TSMC from Different Lenses

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>This reports addresses the alarmist wrong conclusions over DeepSeek, especially over GPU usage and costs</li>
<li>This said, DeepSeek shows that Foundational models are commoditizing. Applications will be more resilient and profitable, ie customized with attached services</li>
<li>We are just at the beginning of the AI revolution with language models. Physical models are next and massive Application deployment.  </li>
</ul>


This reports addresses the alarmist wrong conclusions over DeepSeek, especially over GPU usage and costs
This said, DeepSeek shows that Foundational models are commoditizing. Applications will be more resilient and profitable, ie customized with attached services
We are just at the beginning of the AI revolution with language models. Physical models are next and massive Application deployment.  


DeepSeek and Market Over-Reaction. Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, TSMC, SK Hynix

<ul>
<li>SK hynix derived ~25-30% of revenues from AI in 2024 (HBM, LP-DDR, eSSD). AI revenues will double in 2025. SK hynix’s lead, both roadmap, manufacturing, qualifications extends to 2026.</li>
<li>AI high growth also allows SK hynix to lower its exposure to commodity PC, Mobile, consumer segments. Hence, margins likely continue to increase in 2025-26.</li>
<li>Sk hynix’s lead over Samsung is sustainable for at least 2025-26.  AI-related ASP / margins aren’t cyclical, unlike commodity memory. The stock trades at a miserable 6x 2025 EPS.</li>
</ul>


SK hynix derived ~25-30% of revenues from AI in 2024 (HBM, LP-DDR, eSSD). AI revenues will double in 2025. SK hynix’s lead, both roadmap, manufacturing, qualifications extends to 2026.
AI high growth also allows SK hynix to lower its exposure to commodity PC, Mobile, consumer segments. Hence, margins likely continue to increase in 2025-26.
Sk hynix’s lead over Samsung is sustainable for at least 2025-26.  AI-related ASP / margins aren’t cyclical, unlike commodity memory. The stock trades at a miserable 6x 2025 EPS.


SK Hynix Will Derive ~50% of Revenues from AI in 2025. Why Is the Stock Trading at 6x 2025 EPS?

<ul>
<li>FY24 AI revenue as guided US$12.2bn. 1Q25 AI revenue to increase 65% YoY. FY27 “serviceable market” or “opportunity” could reach US$60-90bn. Actual revenues could be ~70% of that.</li>
<li>Mngt announced another 2 hyperscale customers (one is Apple). At least 1 new new customer could add significant revenues before FY27 (adding to the 60-90bn above). </li>
<li>Stock up 14% aftermarket, trading at 32x FY25 EPS. We expect Consensus EPS to revise up 10-20%. Nvidia trades at 32x next FY (FY26). Positive to suppliers Hynix and TSMC.</li>
</ul>


FY24 AI revenue as guided US$12.2bn. 1Q25 AI revenue to increase 65% YoY. FY27 “serviceable market” or “opportunity” could reach US$60-90bn. Actual revenues could be ~70% of that.
Mngt announced another 2 hyperscale customers (one is Apple). At least 1 new new customer could add significant revenues before FY27 (adding to the 60-90bn above). 
Stock up 14% aftermarket, trading at 32x FY25 EPS. We expect Consensus EPS to revise up 10-20%. Nvidia trades at 32x next FY (FY26). Positive to suppliers Hynix and TSMC.


Broadcom: AI Hyper-Growth to Continue – Worries of a Slowdown Are Wrong – Positive to SK Hynix, TSMC

<ul>
<li>3Q25 (Oct-25) 5% above Consensus, Hopper growing incl H200, no Blackwell revenue. 4Q25 (Jan-25) guidance inline with Consensus but Nvidia has beat guidance for 8 quarters.</li>
<li>Jan-25: Blackwell revenue “several billion dollars”. Supply keeps to increase but supply constraints. GM will moderate to low-70% during Blackwell ramp due  but will stabilize at mid-70%.</li>
<li>The stock is not expensive, trading at its average multiples since 2019: 51x trailing EPS, 34x forward EPS. These multiples are high in an absolute sense, but average for NVDA.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 (Oct-25) 5% above Consensus, Hopper growing incl H200, no Blackwell revenue. 4Q25 (Jan-25) guidance inline with Consensus but Nvidia has beat guidance for 8 quarters.
Jan-25: Blackwell revenue “several billion dollars”. Supply keeps to increase but supply constraints. GM will moderate to low-70% during Blackwell ramp due  but will stabilize at mid-70%.
The stock is not expensive, trading at its average multiples since 2019: 51x trailing EPS, 34x forward EPS. These multiples are high in an absolute sense, but average for NVDA.


Nvidia: Maybe a Few Short-Term Concerns but Blackwell Looks like a Step Function Upwards

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

Curator's Cut: "Bubble" Tea, Japan M&A 🍿& TSMC from Different Lenses

Introducing the Curator's Cut fortnightly newsletter, featuring interesting themes from the Smartkarma network. Share your thoughts!

Pranav Rao

DeepSeek and Market Over-Reaction. Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, TSMC, SK Hynix

Article debunks alarmist claims about DeepSeek, especially GPU usage and cost. The AI revolution is just beginning, with physical models and...

Nicolas Baratte

SK Hynix Will Derive ~50% of Revenues from AI in 2025. Why Is the Stock Trading at 6x 2025 EPS?

SK hynix's AI revenues set to double in 2025, leading in roadmap and manufacturing, with sustainable lead over Samsung and potential for increased...

Nicolas Baratte

Broadcom: AI Hyper-Growth to Continue – Worries of a Slowdown Are Wrong – Positive to SK Hynix, TSMC

Broadcom strong growth potential in AI revenue continues. US$12.2bn AI revenues in FY24 , could grow to a market opportunity of $60-90bn in FY27....

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia: Maybe a Few Short-Term Concerns but Blackwell Looks like a Step Function Upwards

Nvidia beats 3Q25 guidance. 4Q25: Blackwell revenue several billions. Blackwell is the product driving revenues up by a step function higher. The...

Nicolas Baratte

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Curator's Cut: "Bubble" Tea, Japan M&A 🍿& TSMC from Different Lenses

​Introducing the Curator's Cut fortnightly newsletter, featuring interesting themes from the Smartkarma network. Share your thoughts!

Pranav Rao

DeepSeek and Market Over-Reaction. Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, TSMC, SK Hynix

​Article debunks alarmist claims about DeepSeek, especially GPU usage and cost. The AI revolution is just beginning, with physical models and...

Nicolas Baratte

SK Hynix Will Derive ~50% of Revenues from AI in 2025. Why Is the Stock Trading at 6x 2025 EPS?

​SK hynix's AI revenues set to double in 2025, leading in roadmap and manufacturing, with sustainable lead over Samsung and potential for increased...

Nicolas Baratte

Broadcom: AI Hyper-Growth to Continue – Worries of a Slowdown Are Wrong – Positive to SK Hynix, TSMC

Broadcom strong growth potential in AI revenue continues. US$12.2bn AI revenues in FY24 , could grow to a market opportunity of $60-90bn in FY27....

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia: Maybe a Few Short-Term Concerns but Blackwell Looks like a Step Function Upwards

​Nvidia beats 3Q25 guidance. 4Q25: Blackwell revenue several billions. Blackwell is the product driving revenues up by a step function higher. The...

Nicolas Baratte

Introducing the Curator's Cut fortnightly newsletter, featuring interesting themes from the Smartkarma network. Share your thoughts!

Article debunks alarmist claims about DeepSeek, especially GPU usage and cost. The AI revolution is just beginning, with physical models and...

SK hynix's AI revenues set to double in 2025, leading in roadmap and manufacturing, with sustainable lead over Samsung and potential for increased...

Nvidia beats 3Q25 guidance. 4Q25: Blackwell revenue several billions. Blackwell is the product driving revenues up by a step function higher. The...