Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

ASE Technology Holding   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>4Q25 Outlook: Revenue is expected to grow by 1% to 2% QoQ.  Both of GM and OPM are projected to increase by 0.70 to 1 percent QoQ.  </li>
<li>Growth continues to be driven by AI and HPC demand, with testing revenue exceeding expectations and offsetting minor shortfalls in packaging due to geopolitical uncertainties.</li>
<li>With 2025 test revenue expected to grow at roughly twice the pace of packaging revenue. Investment priorities are focused on wafer probing capacity for both AI and non-AI devices</li>
</ul>


4Q25 Outlook: Revenue is expected to grow by 1% to 2% QoQ.  Both of GM and OPM are projected to increase by 0.70 to 1 percent QoQ.  
Growth continues to be driven by AI and HPC demand, with testing revenue exceeding expectations and offsetting minor shortfalls in packaging due to geopolitical uncertainties.
With 2025 test revenue expected to grow at roughly twice the pace of packaging revenue. Investment priorities are focused on wafer probing capacity for both AI and non-AI devices


ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): 3Q25 ATM Record High; 4Q25 Modest Growth; 2025 ATM Revenue +20% YoY (USD)

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>UMC’s 3Q25 results reaffirm its strategic shift toward specialty foundry leadership.</li>
<li>Revenue was stable at NT$59.13bn with improving utilization and 22nm technology now contributing over 10% of sales. Gross margins remain robust.</li>
<li>UMC's growing 22/28nm portfolio, Intel partnership in Arizona, and focus on power-efficient packaging highlight how the maturing foundry sector is moving away from pure node competition and towards application-specific differentiation.</li>
</ul>


UMC’s 3Q25 results reaffirm its strategic shift toward specialty foundry leadership.
Revenue was stable at NT$59.13bn with improving utilization and 22nm technology now contributing over 10% of sales. Gross margins remain robust.
UMC's growing 22/28nm portfolio, Intel partnership in Arizona, and focus on power-efficient packaging highlight how the maturing foundry sector is moving away from pure node competition and towards application-specific differentiation.


UMC (UMC US / 2303 TT): Adeptly Navigating Foundry Industry Transition From Scale to Specialization

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Nvidia CEO said he has a $500bn AI order book. If over the next 7 quarters, it means growth will remain at ~60% YoY till Apr-27. No slowdown. That’s possible.</li>
<li>If it’s over the next 5 quarters (which is what he actually said), it’s enormous growth reaching ~200% YoY in 2H26. I doubt that the supply chain can do that.</li>
<li>Consensus is the lowest with most room for upside: Memory stocks. Consensus too low by ~20%: Nvidia. Just a it too low: TSMC.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia CEO said he has a $500bn AI order book. If over the next 7 quarters, it means growth will remain at ~60% YoY till Apr-27. No slowdown. That’s possible.
If it’s over the next 5 quarters (which is what he actually said), it’s enormous growth reaching ~200% YoY in 2H26. I doubt that the supply chain can do that.
Consensus is the lowest with most room for upside: Memory stocks. Consensus too low by ~20%: Nvidia. Just a it too low: TSMC.


Nvidia Jensen’s $500bn: What Did He Say Exactly? What Does It Mean for Supply Chain Forecasts?

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +23.4% Premium; Near Levels to Open Fresh ADR Spread Short</li>
<li>ASE: +0.3% Premium; Good Level to Long the ADR Spread</li>
<li>ChipMOS: -7.5% Discount; Local Shares Rally Makes ADR Deeply Discounted</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +23.4% Premium; Near Levels to Open Fresh ADR Spread Short
ASE: +0.3% Premium; Good Level to Long the ADR Spread
ChipMOS: -7.5% Discount; Local Shares Rally Makes ADR Deeply Discounted


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Near Fresh Spread Short Level; ChipMOS Rare Discount

<ul>
<li>Windows 10's End-of-Life Becomes Apple's Windfall as Second Fastest Growing Computer Brand</li>
<li>Eyes on Yageo Results Coming October 30 After 35% 1-Week Surge</li>
<li>China Tightens Rare Earth Grip: TSMC Says It's Prepared with Inventory</li>
</ul>


Windows 10's End-of-Life Becomes Apple's Windfall as Second Fastest Growing Computer Brand
Eyes on Yageo Results Coming October 30 After 35% 1-Week Surge
China Tightens Rare Earth Grip: TSMC Says It's Prepared with Inventory


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple's Macbook Windfall; Yageo's Rally; TSMC's Massive Rare Earth Stockpile

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): 3Q25 ATM Record High; 4Q25 Modest Growth; 2025 ATM Revenue +20% YoY (USD)

4Q25 revenue to grow by 1-2% QoQ, driven by AI and HPC demand. Testing revenue exceeds expectations, offsetting packaging shortfalls. Investment...

Patrick Liao

UMC (UMC US / 2303 TT): Adeptly Navigating Foundry Industry Transition From Scale to Specialization

UMC's 3Q25 results show progress in specialty foundry leadership with stable revenue, improving utilization, and successful focus on application...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nvidia Jensen’s $500bn: What Did He Say Exactly? What Does It Mean for Supply Chain Forecasts?

Nvidia CEO predicts massive AI growth potential, with orders reaching $500bn and potential for 60% YoY growth till Apr-27

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Near Fresh Spread Short Level; ChipMOS Rare Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple's Macbook Windfall; Yageo's Rally; TSMC's Massive Rare Earth Stockpile

Windows 10's end-of-life is benefiting Apple. Yageo's results ahead after a 35% surge, while TSMC is prepared for China's tightening grip on rare...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): 3Q25 ATM Record High; 4Q25 Modest Growth; 2025 ATM Revenue +20% YoY (USD)

​4Q25 revenue to grow by 1-2% QoQ, driven by AI and HPC demand. Testing revenue exceeds expectations, offsetting packaging shortfalls. Investment...

Patrick Liao

UMC (UMC US / 2303 TT): Adeptly Navigating Foundry Industry Transition From Scale to Specialization

​UMC's 3Q25 results show progress in specialty foundry leadership with stable revenue, improving utilization, and successful focus on application...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nvidia Jensen’s $500bn: What Did He Say Exactly? What Does It Mean for Supply Chain Forecasts?

​Nvidia CEO predicts massive AI growth potential, with orders reaching $500bn and potential for 60% YoY growth till Apr-27

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Near Fresh Spread Short Level; ChipMOS Rare Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple's Macbook Windfall; Yageo's Rally; TSMC's Massive Rare Earth Stockpile

​Windows 10's end-of-life is benefiting Apple. Yageo's results ahead after a 35% surge, while TSMC is prepared for China's tightening grip on rare...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

4Q25 revenue to grow by 1-2% QoQ, driven by AI and HPC demand. Testing revenue exceeds expectations, offsetting packaging shortfalls. Investment...

UMC's 3Q25 results show progress in specialty foundry leadership with stable revenue, improving utilization, and successful focus on application...

Nvidia CEO predicts massive AI growth potential, with orders reaching $500bn and potential for 60% YoY growth till Apr-27

Windows 10's end-of-life is benefiting Apple. Yageo's results ahead after a 35% surge, while TSMC is prepared for China's tightening grip on rare...