Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

ASE Technology Holding   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASEH expects inventory adjustments to be completed in 1H24 and the growth to accelerate in 2H24. ASEH also expects IC-ATM to grow similarly to the semiconductor logic market in 2024H.</li>
<li>The 1Q24F guidance is looking at sales and GM levels for both IC ATM and EMS to be similar to 1Q23 levels.</li>
<li>Most customers will be back on the recovery path by at least 3Q24F.  </li>
</ul>


ASEH expects inventory adjustments to be completed in 1H24 and the growth to accelerate in 2H24. ASEH also expects IC-ATM to grow similarly to the semiconductor logic market in 2024H.
The 1Q24F guidance is looking at sales and GM levels for both IC ATM and EMS to be similar to 1Q23 levels.
Most customers will be back on the recovery path by at least 3Q24F.  


ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): Expects 2Q24F Back to Normal Seasonality and 2H24 Will Start the Recovery.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ase-technology-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27270:1" rel="noopener">ASE Technology Holding (3711 TT)</a> 1Q24F outlook may be dim due to normal seasonality, resulting in a decline of mid-to-high single digits in revenue.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> are expected to experience a strong rebound.</li>
<li>The 2024F outlook for ASEH indicates a low double-digit YoY growth.  </li>
</ul>


The ASE Technology Holding (3711 TT) 1Q24F outlook may be dim due to normal seasonality, resulting in a decline of mid-to-high single digits in revenue.

Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) are expected to experience a strong rebound.
The 2024F outlook for ASEH indicates a low double-digit YoY growth.  


ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): 1Q24F Revenue Outlook Could Be Down Slightly QoQ; 2024F Should Grow ~10% YoY

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Apple supply chain names are falling due concerns about weak iPhone shipments. Global PC shipments returned to growth as per IDC data.</li>
<li>TSMC and ASML results this week and will be cruical for the market. Can TSMC rally again to achieve new highs or will it continue trading lower?</li>
<li>Nanya Technology sees DRAM Industry pricing rising through 2024E; but is underperforming financially.</li>
</ul>


Apple supply chain names are falling due concerns about weak iPhone shipments. Global PC shipments returned to growth as per IDC data.
TSMC and ASML results this week and will be cruical for the market. Can TSMC rally again to achieve new highs or will it continue trading lower?
Nanya Technology sees DRAM Industry pricing rising through 2024E; but is underperforming financially.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Suppliers Slump on IPhone; PC Volumes Back to Growth; TSMC & ASML Results

<ul>
<li>ASE's 3Q23 results came in in-line with analyst estimates, and showed gross margin ticking slightly higher QoQ.</li>
<li>Semiconductor Assembly, Testing, and Manufacturing (ATM) capacity utilization remains low, in the mid-60's percent.</li>
<li>Management is cautiously optimistic about an improving industry environment into next year, however was more guarded than what we gauged from TSMC or UMC in their recent results.</li>
</ul>


ASE's 3Q23 results came in in-line with analyst estimates, and showed gross margin ticking slightly higher QoQ.
Semiconductor Assembly, Testing, and Manufacturing (ATM) capacity utilization remains low, in the mid-60's percent.
Management is cautiously optimistic about an improving industry environment into next year, however was more guarded than what we gauged from TSMC or UMC in their recent results.


ASE's Results Shows Chip Packaging & Testing Utilization Is Still Low, However Improvement Expected

<ul>
<li>We estimate that the outlook is still moderate downward in 4Q23F, which is a typically seasonality.</li>
<li>SPIL, in ASEH group, is serving only limited on-Substrate (oW) of Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS).</li>
<li>We note that the major big clients of ASEH are not changing at all during this time downturn.</li>
</ul>


We estimate that the outlook is still moderate downward in 4Q23F, which is a typically seasonality.
SPIL, in ASEH group, is serving only limited on-Substrate (oW) of Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS).
We note that the major big clients of ASEH are not changing at all during this time downturn.


ASEH (3711.TT): 4Q23F Outlook Should Remain Decline for a Normal Seasonality.

Taiwan

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. offers assembly and testing services. The Company provides outsourced assembly, semiconductor testing, semiconductor packaging, and other related services. ASE Technology Holding operates in Taiwan.

ASE Technology Holding (3711 TT)

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): Expects 2Q24F Back to Normal Seasonality and 2H24 Will Start the Recovery.

ASEH anticipates completing inventory adjustments in the first half of 2024. 1Q24F guidance suggests sales and GM levels for IC ATM and EMS will...

Patrick Liao

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): 1Q24F Revenue Outlook Could Be Down Slightly QoQ; 2024F Should Grow ~10% YoY

ASEH 1Q24F outlook is expected for a mid-to high single digits QoQ decline. Mediatek and NVDA are anticipated to a strong rebound in 1Q24F. ASEH's...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Suppliers Slump on IPhone; PC Volumes Back to Growth; TSMC & ASML Results

Apple supply chain names are dropping due to weak iPhone shipments, while global PC shipments are growing. TSMC and ASML results will be crucial...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASE's Results Shows Chip Packaging & Testing Utilization Is Still Low, However Improvement Expected

Management is cautiously optimistic about an improving industry environment into next year, however was more guarded than what we gauged from TSMC...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASEH (3711.TT): 4Q23F Outlook Should Remain Decline for a Normal Seasonality.

The outlook is still moderate downward in 4Q23F. SPIL, in ASEH group, is serving only limited in CoWoS demand. The major big clients of ASEH are...

Patrick Liao

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): Expects 2Q24F Back to Normal Seasonality and 2H24 Will Start the Recovery.

​ASEH anticipates completing inventory adjustments in the first half of 2024. 1Q24F guidance suggests sales and GM levels for IC ATM and EMS will...

Patrick Liao

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): 1Q24F Revenue Outlook Could Be Down Slightly QoQ; 2024F Should Grow ~10% YoY

​ASEH 1Q24F outlook is expected for a mid-to high single digits QoQ decline. Mediatek and NVDA are anticipated to a strong rebound in 1Q24F. ASEH's...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Suppliers Slump on IPhone; PC Volumes Back to Growth; TSMC & ASML Results

​Apple supply chain names are dropping due to weak iPhone shipments, while global PC shipments are growing. TSMC and ASML results will be crucial...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASE's Results Shows Chip Packaging & Testing Utilization Is Still Low, However Improvement Expected

Management is cautiously optimistic about an improving industry environment into next year, however was more guarded than what we gauged from TSMC...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASEH (3711.TT): 4Q23F Outlook Should Remain Decline for a Normal Seasonality.

The outlook is still moderate downward in 4Q23F. SPIL, in ASEH group, is serving only limited in CoWoS demand. The major big clients of ASEH are...

Patrick Liao

ASEH anticipates completing inventory adjustments in the first half of 2024. 1Q24F guidance suggests sales and GM levels for IC ATM and EMS will...

ASEH 1Q24F outlook is expected for a mid-to high single digits QoQ decline. Mediatek and NVDA are anticipated to a strong rebound in 1Q24F. ASEH's...

Apple supply chain names are dropping due to weak iPhone shipments, while global PC shipments are growing. TSMC and ASML results will be crucial...