Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

<p>While there are always exceptions at the individual stock level, MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM-US) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) have been some of the weaker areas to invest throughout 2021. We now see early signs of positive change and we recommend adding exposure to emerging markets and Japan.</p>

While there are always exceptions at the individual stock level, MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM-US) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) have been some of the weaker areas to invest throughout 2021. We now see early signs of positive change and we recommend adding exposure to emerging markets and Japan.

Buying Opportunities Within Emerging Markets and Japan; US Dollar Failing At 93.50

Wisdomtree Japan Hedged Eq / Technical Analysis

<p>Market dynamics continue to send mixed signals, but the bottom line is that not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Additionally, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes all remain above critical support levels. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish. It is also worth noting that various indicators could be making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a potential false breakdown in crude oil, and high yield spreads leveling-out.</p>

Market dynamics continue to send mixed signals, but the bottom line is that not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Additionally, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes all remain above critical support levels. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish. It is also worth noting that various indicators could be making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a potential false breakdown in crude oil, and high yield spreads leveling-out.

Critical Supports Holding in the US, Europe, & Japan; Buying Health Care, Utilities, Materials, Tech

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS SUMMARY - 4th FEBRUARY •</strong></p></div><div><p>Of Thursday's 151 results announcements, 69% scored positively for earnings momentum despite trailing revenues falling by 5.1% on average and a 0.8 percentage point decline in operating margins. 12% of companies were in the red for the quarter.  63% of the 64 annual forecasts/revision announcements scored positively, and the average Forecast/Revision score was +2.1 points.</p></div><div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Thursday's 'best' large-cap announcements were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ibiden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16630:1" rel="noopener">Ibiden (4062 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data (9613 JP)</a>. The 'worst' came from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">MUFG (8306 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank (9434 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari (4385 JP)</a>.   </p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/186/914/original/image?1612474282" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="186914"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/186/912/original/image?1612474282" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="186912"></figure></section><section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/186/913/original/image?1612474282" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="186913"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/186/911/original/image?1612474282" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="186911"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/186/910/original/image?1612474282" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="186910"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/186/915/original/image?1612474282" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="186915"></figure></section></section>
</div><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>

• RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS SUMMARY - 4th FEBRUARY •Of Thursday's 151 results announcements, 69% scored positively for earnings momentum despite trailing revenues falling by 5.1% on average and a 0.8 percentage point decline in operating margins. 12% of companies were in the red for the quarter.  63% of the 64 annual forecasts/revision announcements scored positively, and the average Forecast/Revision score was +2.1 points.
• BEST &amp; WORST •
Thursday's 'best' large-cap announcements were Ibiden (4062 JP), Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP), and NTT Data (9613 JP). The 'worst' came from MUFG (8306 JP), Softbank (9434 JP), and Mercari (4385 JP).   

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​02/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​04 Ibiden, Takeda.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 2 July, Nikkei reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dentsu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12434:1" rel="noopener">Dentsu Inc (4324 JP)</a> plans to take <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dentsu-soken-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20535:1" rel="noopener">Dentsu Soken (4812 JP)</a> private by partnering with Fujitsu and other general trading companies.</li>
<li>The rumoured JPY200 billion valuation for the 38.12% stake not owned by Dentsu suggests an offer of JPY2,688 per share, a 26.0% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>Due to Dentsu’s large stake, a generous offer is unnecessary. Nevertheless, the rumoured offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples.</li>
</ul>


On 2 July, Nikkei reported that Dentsu Inc (4324 JP) plans to take Dentsu Soken (4812 JP) private by partnering with Fujitsu and other general trading companies.
The rumoured JPY200 billion valuation for the 38.12% stake not owned by Dentsu suggests an offer of JPY2,688 per share, a 26.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
Due to Dentsu’s large stake, a generous offer is unnecessary. Nevertheless, the rumoured offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples.


Dentsu Soken (4812 JP): Dentsu’s Potential Privatisation Offer

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Monday's best and worst pairing is connector specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hirose-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13513:1" rel="noopener">Hirose Electric (6806 JP)</a> and finance conglomerate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">Orix (8591 JP)</a>.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/962/original/2020-10-28_06-33-11.png?1604374504" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168962"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/964/original/2020-11-03_12-36-42.png?1604374616" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168964"></figure></section><div><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>63 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 44% Positive / 10% Neutral / 46% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -1.2 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -8.3% Quarter YoY / -6.3% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.3ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 22%</p></li>
</ul></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>37 Annual • 25 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 46% Positive / 8% Neutral / 46% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 36% Positive / 4% Neutral / 60% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -2.0 points</p></li>
</ul></div>
</div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
Monday's best and worst pairing is connector specialist Hirose Electric (6806 JP) and finance conglomerate Orix (8591 JP).
Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

DAILY STATS

63 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 44% Positive / 10% Neutral / 46% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -1.2 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -8.3% Quarter YoY / -6.3% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.3ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 22%


37 Annual • 25 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 46% Positive / 8% Neutral / 46% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 36% Positive / 4% Neutral / 60% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -2.0 points



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​02 - Hirose, Yamaha, CTC & NTT Data, ORIX

Japan

NTT Data Corporation mainly provides large scale system integration and networking system services. System integration involves data transmission system design, sales, leasing, and services.  Network System Services include internet related and linked computer networks, and data provision and management of data. The Company is a subsidiary of Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corporation.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

NTT Data Corp (9613 JP)

Buying Opportunities Within Emerging Markets and Japan; US Dollar Failing At 93.50

MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM-US) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) have been some of the weaker areas to invest throughout 2021. We now see early signs...

Vermilion Research

Critical Supports Holding in the US, Europe, & Japan; Buying Health Care, Utilities, Materials, Tech

Various indicators are making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a false breakdown in...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 02/04 Ibiden, Takeda.

Of Thursday's 151 results announcements, 69% scored positively for earnings momentum despite trailing revenues falling by 5.1% on average and a 0.8...

Campbell Gunn

Dentsu Soken (4812 JP): Dentsu’s Potential Privatisation Offer

Due to Dentsu’s large stake, a generous offer is unnecessary. Nevertheless, the rumoured offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions and...

Arun George

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/02 - Hirose, Yamaha, CTC & NTT Data, ORIX

• BEST & WORST • Monday's best and worst pairing is connector specialist Hirose Electric (6806 JP) and finance conglomerate Orix (8591 JP).

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Buying Opportunities Within Emerging Markets and Japan; US Dollar Failing At 93.50

MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM-US) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) have been some of the weaker areas to invest throughout 2021. We now see early signs...

Vermilion Research

Critical Supports Holding in the US, Europe, & Japan; Buying Health Care, Utilities, Materials, Tech

Various indicators are making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a false breakdown in...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​02/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​04 Ibiden, Takeda.

Of Thursday's 151 results announcements, 69% scored positively for earnings momentum despite trailing revenues falling by 5.1% on average and a 0.8...

Campbell Gunn

Dentsu Soken (4812 JP): Dentsu’s Potential Privatisation Offer

Due to Dentsu’s large stake, a generous offer is unnecessary. Nevertheless, the rumoured offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions and...

Arun George

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​02 - Hirose, Yamaha, CTC & NTT Data, ORIX

• BEST & WORST • Monday's best and worst pairing is connector specialist Hirose Electric (6806 JP) and finance conglomerate Orix (8591 JP).

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 02/04 Ibiden, Takeda.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/02 - Hirose, Yamaha, CTC & NTT Data, ORIX