Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have discussed our expectations for rising rates for quite some time, but the 10-year yield is now testing 40-year downtrend resistance which comes in at 2.80-2.82%.</li>
<li>If there was ever a time for interest rates to move lower, this is where it needs to happen -- and it would be fitting, considering extremely bearish bond sentiment.</li>
<li>On the other hand, if the 10-year Treasury is above 2.82% we see a secular reversal where rising rates would be the new normal</li>
</ul>


We have discussed our expectations for rising rates for quite some time, but the 10-year yield is now testing 40-year downtrend resistance which comes in at 2.80-2.82%.
If there was ever a time for interest rates to move lower, this is where it needs to happen -- and it would be fitting, considering extremely bearish bond sentiment.
On the other hand, if the 10-year Treasury is above 2.82% we see a secular reversal where rising rates would be the new normal


10-Year Treasury Yield Testing 40-Year Resistance; Upgrading Health Care to Overweight

<ul>
<li>US cap-weighted Health Care (ETF: XLV-US) remains in a 4.5-month RS uptrend relative to the S&amp;P 500, and we have the Sector on watch for a potential upgrade to overweight.</li>
<li>The VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF (PPH-US) recently broke out topside a 9-month base and RS displays a bullish reversal. Zooming-out, we can see a 6+ year base breakout.</li>
<li>Buy: Eli Lilly (LLY-US), Astrazeneca (AZN-US), Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B-DK), Roche (ROG-CH), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY-US), Bayer AG (BAYN-DE), UCB S.A. (UCB-BE), Ipsen SA (IPN-FR), ONO Pharmaceutical (4528-JP), and Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA-US)</li>
</ul>


US cap-weighted Health Care (ETF: XLV-US) remains in a 4.5-month RS uptrend relative to the S&amp;P 500, and we have the Sector on watch for a potential upgrade to overweight.
The VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF (PPH-US) recently broke out topside a 9-month base and RS displays a bullish reversal. Zooming-out, we can see a 6+ year base breakout.
Buy: Eli Lilly (LLY-US), Astrazeneca (AZN-US), Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B-DK), Roche (ROG-CH), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY-US), Bayer AG (BAYN-DE), UCB S.A. (UCB-BE), Ipsen SA (IPN-FR), ONO Pharmaceutical (4528-JP), and Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA-US)


Buy Global LargeCap Pharma: LLY, AZN, NOVO.B-DK, ROG-CH, BMY, BAYN-DE, UCB-BE, IPN-FR, 4528-JP, TEVA

Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Healthcare stocks tend to do better than the broad S&amp;P 500 in risk-off environments and periods of slowing economic growth.</li><li>The purchasing managers’ index and various leading indicators continue to suggest economic deceleration is in store for 2022</li><li>Meanwhile, healthcare stocks generally have attractive valuations. They’ve not been piled into by hedge funds or meme traders</li></ul>

Healthcare stocks tend to do better than the broad S&amp;P 500 in risk-off environments and periods of slowing economic growth.The purchasing managers’ index and various leading indicators continue to suggest economic deceleration is in store for 2022Meanwhile, healthcare stocks generally have attractive valuations. They’ve not been piled into by hedge funds or meme traders

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

In technical publications like patents and research papers, cross-references are made to existing patents and research papers. We believe these mentions and citations can provide valuable insights into the views and impressions of experts in the specific innovations and technologies within a sector and hence the likelihood of success. In this report (which is the first one we are publishing) we have crawled through more than ten years of publications (several thousand) to analyze a subset in the Lifesciences space namely PEPTIDES.  Needless to say the same can be done with respect to other technological areas in other sectors as well.We backtested our methodology (dating three years back) to look for any specific actionable idea the analysis might throw up. We noted that among the small or mid-cap stocks that screened well half were acquired over the next three years Specific to this report we highlight over ten companies that are likely acquisition targets over the next three years. Within those, two companies that screen very well based purely on data mined from the publications and our parameters of number of innovations, number of citations, Recency, and Impact are a Germany based Nasdaq listed - Immatics (IMTX) and US-based Coherus (CHRS)

In technical publications like patents and research papers, cross-references are made to existing patents and research papers. We believe these mentions and citations can provide valuable insights into the views and impressions of experts in the specific innovations and technologies within a sector and hence the likelihood of success. In this report (which is the first one we are publishing) we have crawled through more than ten years of publications (several thousand) to analyze a subset in the Lifesciences space namely PEPTIDES.  Needless to say the same can be done with respect to other technological areas in other sectors as well.We backtested our methodology (dating three years back) to look for any specific actionable idea the analysis might throw up. We noted that among the small or mid-cap stocks that screened well half were acquired over the next three years Specific to this report we highlight over ten companies that are likely acquisition targets over the next three years. Within those, two companies that screen very well based purely on data mined from the publications and our parameters of number of innovations, number of citations, Recency, and Impact are a Germany based Nasdaq listed - Immatics (IMTX) and US-based Coherus (CHRS)

Stock Ideas Based on Data Mined from Technical Publications - A Look Into Peptides

Now that the initial/primary low has been established and with the S&amp;P 500 roughly 20% off the lows, we believe it is time to map out potential areas where this rally could run into resistance. After this type of major waterfall decline there is often a test of the initial low - and there is often an undercut of the initial low. Barring approval of a first-line therapy for COVID-19 (chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine?) we are of the belief that a test of this initial low (likely 2-12 weeks out) and potentially an undercut of roughly 10% are likely.

Now that the initial/primary low has been established and with the S&amp;P 500 roughly 20% off the lows, we believe it is time to map out potential areas where this rally could run into resistance. After this type of major waterfall decline there is often a test of the initial low - and there is often an undercut of the initial low. Barring approval of a first-line therapy for COVID-19 (chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine?) we are of the belief that a test of this initial low (likely 2-12 weeks out) and potentially an undercut of roughly 10% are likely.

United States

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company is a global biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, licenses, manufactures, markets, and sells pharmaceutical and nutritional products. Bristol-Myers Squibb products and experimental therapies address cancer, heart disease, HIV/AIDS, diabetes, rheumatoid arthritis, hepatitis, organ transplant  rejection, and psychiatric disorders.

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Bristol Myers Squibb Co (BMY US)

10-Year Treasury Yield Testing 40-Year Resistance; Upgrading Health Care to Overweight

10-year Treas yield $TNX is now testing 40-year downtrend resistance at 2.8-2.82%. If interest rates are to move lower, now would be the time,...

Vermilion Research

Buy Global LargeCap Pharma: LLY, AZN, NOVO.B-DK, ROG-CH, BMY, BAYN-DE, UCB-BE, IPN-FR, 4528-JP, TEVA

The VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF $PPH recently broke out topside a 9-month base and RS displays a bullish reversal. Zooming-out, we can see a 6+ year...

Vermilion Research

A Healthy Long for Your Portfolio

Healthcare stocks tend to do better than the broad S&P 500 in risk-off environments and periods of slowing economic growth. The purchasing...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Stock Ideas Based on Data Mined from Technical Publications - A Look Into Peptides

We have screened for stock ideas in the area of PEPTIDES by datamining citations by industry experts in thousands of technical publications over...

Pyari Menon

U.S. Equities: Test Of The Lows Coming?

Now that the initial/primary low has been established and with the S&P 500 roughly 20% off the lows, we believe it is time to map out potential...

Vermilion Research

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