AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.</li>
<li>While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the pricing boom may be peaking.</li>
<li>Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.</li>
</ul>


Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.
While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the pricing boom may be peaking.
Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.


Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

<ul><li>Discussion on NEO clouds and AI infrastructure landlords</li><li>Differentiation between hyperscalers and Neo clouds in terms of business models and focus on AI workloads</li><li>Consideration of critical software in DevOps and AI API software as a factor in defining a hyperscaler's offerings and differentiation from Neo clouds</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Discussion on NEO clouds and AI infrastructure landlordsDifferentiation between hyperscalers and Neo clouds in terms of business models and focus on AI workloadsConsideration of critical software in DevOps and AI API software as a factor in defining a hyperscaler's offerings and differentiation from Neo cloudsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Amazon is navigating a dynamic tech landscape, leveraging its strong position in AI infrastructure and cloud services to drive long-term value creation and maintain a premium valuation in the market.</li>
<li>The company is making strategic investments in AI chips and foundational AI companies like Anthropic, aiming to optimize efficiency and scalability in its AWS segment.</li>
<li>Despite a current range-bound stock price, Amazon's financial metrics and company culture approach underscore its commitment to growth and competitive advantage in the evolving tech ecosystem.</li>
</ul>


Amazon is navigating a dynamic tech landscape, leveraging its strong position in AI infrastructure and cloud services to drive long-term value creation and maintain a premium valuation in the market.
The company is making strategic investments in AI chips and foundational AI companies like Anthropic, aiming to optimize efficiency and scalability in its AWS segment.
Despite a current range-bound stock price, Amazon's financial metrics and company culture approach underscore its commitment to growth and competitive advantage in the evolving tech ecosystem.


Amazon: Still Riding the Tech Volatility Wave

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Victory Giant Technology -A / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/victory-giant-technology-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25395:1" rel="noopener">Victory Giant Technology -A (300476 CH)</a> (VG) aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>VG is one of the global leaders in advanced printed circuit boards (PCB) products for AI and high-performance computing.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.</li>
</ul>



Victory Giant Technology -A (300476 CH) (VG) aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
VG is one of the global leaders in advanced printed circuit boards (PCB) products for AI and high-performance computing.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.


Victory Giant A/H Listing - Riding the AI Wave

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella announced his intention to spend $30 billion on AI infrastructure in the UK. NVIDIA, Coreweave, Alphabet and OpenAI are also ponying up further billions</li>
<li>Jensen Huang declared the UK and AI powerhouse, third in line globally behind the US and China</li>
<li>Is it really UK sovereign AI when it's mostly paid for and made in the USA?</li>
</ul>


Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella announced his intention to spend $30 billion on AI infrastructure in the UK. NVIDIA, Coreweave, Alphabet and OpenAI are also ponying up further billions
Jensen Huang declared the UK and AI powerhouse, third in line globally behind the US and China
Is it really UK sovereign AI when it's mostly paid for and made in the USA?


UK Sovereign AI Proudly Paid For & Made In The USA

United States

Alphabet, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides web-based search, advertisements, maps, software applications, mobile operating systems, consumer content, enterprise solutions, commerce, and hardware products.

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Alphabet (GOOG US)

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

EP 136: WE DON'T HAVE THE POWER!

Overall, hyperscalers like Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle provide a wide range of infrastructure and software services for various...

The Circuit

Amazon: Still Riding the Tech Volatility Wave

Amazon is strategically investing in AI infrastructure to drive long-term value and maintain a competitive edge in the tech landscape. A trade,...

Jay Cameron

Victory Giant A/H Listing - Riding the AI Wave

Victory Giant Technology -A (300476 CH) (VG) aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing. In this note, we look at the company's past...

Sumeet Singh

UK Sovereign AI Proudly Paid For & Made In The USA

Microsoft will spend $30 billion on AI in the UK with NVIDIA, Coreweave, Alphabet & OpenAI also ponying up further billions. Is it really UK...

William Keating

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

​Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

EP 136: WE DON'T HAVE THE POWER!

Overall, hyperscalers like Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle provide a wide range of infrastructure and software services for various...

The Circuit

Amazon: Still Riding the Tech Volatility Wave

​Amazon is strategically investing in AI infrastructure to drive long-term value and maintain a competitive edge in the tech landscape. A trade,...

Jay Cameron

Victory Giant A/H Listing - Riding the AI Wave

Victory Giant Technology -A (300476 CH) (VG) aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing. In this note, we look at the company's past...

Sumeet Singh

UK Sovereign AI Proudly Paid For & Made In The USA

Microsoft will spend $30 billion on AI in the UK with NVIDIA, Coreweave, Alphabet & OpenAI also ponying up further billions. Is it really UK...

William Keating

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Amazon is strategically investing in AI infrastructure to drive long-term value and maintain a competitive edge in the tech landscape. A trade,...