Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Deep Fundamental Analysis

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

United states Semiconductors and semiconductor equipment / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.</li>
<li>While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the <em>pricing</em> boom may be peaking.</li>
<li>Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.</li>
</ul>


Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.
While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the pricing boom may be peaking.
Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.


Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check