Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>FY Mar-22 guidance was raised, but new orders were down in 3Q and both sales &amp; operating are headed down in 4Q. </li>
<li>4Q is seasonally weak and long-term demand drivers such as 5G, IoT and auto electrification remain in place, but the timing of recovery is uncertain.</li>
<li>The shares have dropped 21% since last September, to the low side but not the bottom of their 5-year P/E range. Look for an opportunity to buy for the long-term.</li>
</ul>


FY Mar-22 guidance was raised, but new orders were down in 3Q and both sales &amp; operating are headed down in 4Q. 
4Q is seasonally weak and long-term demand drivers such as 5G, IoT and auto electrification remain in place, but the timing of recovery is uncertain.
The shares have dropped 21% since last September, to the low side but not the bottom of their 5-year P/E range. Look for an opportunity to buy for the long-term.


Murata Mfg. (6981 JP): FY Guidance Raised but Quarterly OP Trend Is Down

<ul>
<li>Good 1H results led to an upward revision to FY Mar-22 sales and profit guidance. Geared to both digital and energy transformations.</li>
<li>Higher R&amp;D spending limits short-term profits but should contribute to long-term growth, particularly in rechargeable batteries.</li>
<li>Selling at a discount to main comparable Murata Mfg (6981 JP). 30% potential upside.</li>
</ul>


Good 1H results led to an upward revision to FY Mar-22 sales and profit guidance. Geared to both digital and energy transformations.
Higher R&amp;D spending limits short-term profits but should contribute to long-term growth, particularly in rechargeable batteries.
Selling at a discount to main comparable Murata Mfg (6981 JP). 30% potential upside.


TDK (6762 JP): Sales & Profits Rebounding, Relatively Cheap

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

LG Energy Solution / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-energy-solution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33464:1" rel="noopener">LG Energy Solution (LGENERGY KS)</a> is a leading EV battery manufacturer. It is pre-marketing an IPO to raise up to $10.8 billion, which would be South Korea’s largest-ever listing.  </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lg-energy-solution-ipo-initiation-amp-my-ride" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:62402" rel="noopener">LG Energy Solution IPO Initiation: Amp My Ride</a>, we stated that LGES has attractive fundamentals with a strong backlog, healthy revenue growth and improving margins (recall provisions have peaked). </li>
<li>In this note, we benchmark LGES and its listed battery peers across key financial metrics.  </li>
</ul>



LG Energy Solution (LGENERGY KS) is a leading EV battery manufacturer. It is pre-marketing an IPO to raise up to $10.8 billion, which would be South Korea’s largest-ever listing.  
In LG Energy Solution IPO Initiation: Amp My Ride, we stated that LGES has attractive fundamentals with a strong backlog, healthy revenue growth and improving margins (recall provisions have peaked). 
In this note, we benchmark LGES and its listed battery peers across key financial metrics.  


LG Energy Solution Vs CATL Vs Samsung SDI Vs SK Innovation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-energy-solution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33464:1" rel="noopener">LG Energy Solution (LGENERGY KS)</a> is a leading EV battery manufacturer. It is pre-marketing an IPO to raise up to $10.8 billion, which would be South Korea’s largest-ever listing.  </li>
<li>LGES is offering 42.5 million shares with a primary/secondary split of 80/20. Pre-marketing will run until 17 December.  </li>
<li>LGES has attractive fundamentals with a strong backlog, healthy revenue growth and improving margins (recall provisions have peaked). </li>
</ul>



LG Energy Solution (LGENERGY KS) is a leading EV battery manufacturer. It is pre-marketing an IPO to raise up to $10.8 billion, which would be South Korea’s largest-ever listing.  
LGES is offering 42.5 million shares with a primary/secondary split of 80/20. Pre-marketing will run until 17 December.  
LGES has attractive fundamentals with a strong backlog, healthy revenue growth and improving margins (recall provisions have peaked). 


LG Energy Solution IPO Initiation: Amp My Ride

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

The September 2021 Nikkei 225 Rebalance was the first under the new rules. It was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2021-nikkei-225-rebalance-nintendo-murata-keyence-in-nisshinbo-toyo-seikan-skupper-out" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57008" rel="noopener">2021 Nikkei 225 Rebalance: Nintendo, Murata, Keyence IN; Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan, 'Skupper' OUT</a> about three weeks ago when announced. The ADDITIONS and DELETIONS were announced on 6 September for implementation on 30 September at the close. There was, ex-ante, quite a bit to buy, and not a huge amount to sell from the explicit deletions, though there is a little to sell on a down-weight to the Price Adjustment Factor on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sompo-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:632:1" rel="noopener">Sompo Holdings (8630 JP)</a> and there was - on an ex-ante basis - something like US$4.8bn of the other 221 names to sell. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/232/054/original/N225+Sep+2021+Adds+Deletes.png?1632731028" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="232054"></figure></section>That was then. Since then, we have had 13 trading days to build up new pre-positioning or unwind previous pre-positioning. And we are have a run-up to the trade on Thursday at the close. An accompanying insight will briefly discuss the OTHER delta trade which interferes with the smooth flow of this event. More below.

The September 2021 Nikkei 225 Rebalance was the first under the new rules. It was discussed in 2021 Nikkei 225 Rebalance: Nintendo, Murata, Keyence IN; Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan, 'Skupper' OUT about three weeks ago when announced. The ADDITIONS and DELETIONS were announced on 6 September for implementation on 30 September at the close. There was, ex-ante, quite a bit to buy, and not a huge amount to sell from the explicit deletions, though there is a little to sell on a down-weight to the Price Adjustment Factor on Sompo Holdings (8630 JP) and there was - on an ex-ante basis - something like US$4.8bn of the other 221 names to sell. That was then. Since then, we have had 13 trading days to build up new pre-positioning or unwind previous pre-positioning. And we are have a run-up to the trade on Thursday at the close. An accompanying insight will briefly discuss the OTHER delta trade which interferes with the smooth flow of this event. More below.

September 2021 Nikkei 225 Rebal With 3 Days Left

Japan

MURATA MANUFACTURING COMPANY, LTD. manufactures and sells ceramic applied electronic components.  The Company's products include filters, capacitors, thermistors, resistors, noise suppression components, coils, piezoelectric sound components, power supplies, sensors, hybrid integrated circuit (IC), and microwave components.

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Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP)

Murata Mfg. (6981 JP): FY Guidance Raised but Quarterly OP Trend Is Down

Shares down 21% since last September, but orders, sales and profits weak in 3Q and 4Q of FY Mar-22. Long-term drivers remain in place, but timing...

Scott Foster

TDK (6762 JP): Sales & Profits Rebounding, Relatively Cheap

Sales and profits rebounding. Higher R&D spending limiting short-term profits but should boost long-term growth in digital and energy...

Scott Foster

LG Energy Solution Vs CATL Vs Samsung SDI Vs SK Innovation

LGES is pre-marketing an IPO to raise up to $10.8 billion. In this note, we benchmark LGES and its listed battery peers across key financial metrics.

Arun George

LG Energy Solution IPO Initiation: Amp My Ride

LGES is pre-marketing an IPO to raise up to $10.8 bn, potentially Korea’s largest-ever listing. It has attractive fundamentals with a strong...

Arun George

September 2021 Nikkei 225 Rebal With 3 Days Left

The September 2021 Nikkei 225 Rebalance has performed "as expected" for both the ADDs and the DELETEs. It appears that the DELETEs have seen...

Travis Lundy

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