Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) reported just 0.6% YoY revenue growth to ¥767B in H1FY24, while operating profit plunged 57% YoY and net profit decreased 67% YoY.</li>
<li>Generic competition in Lexiscan impacted topline. Increase in SG&amp;A expenses related to new drug launch and higher amortization of intangible assets, pulled down the operating as well as net profit.</li>
<li>Astellas has downwardly revised FY24 forecasts for profit items by more than 50% after taking into consideration the increases in higher expenses.</li>
</ul>


Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) reported just 0.6% YoY revenue growth to ¥767B in H1FY24, while operating profit plunged 57% YoY and net profit decreased 67% YoY.
Generic competition in Lexiscan impacted topline. Increase in SG&amp;A expenses related to new drug launch and higher amortization of intangible assets, pulled down the operating as well as net profit.
Astellas has downwardly revised FY24 forecasts for profit items by more than 50% after taking into consideration the increases in higher expenses.


Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Underwhelming H1 Result; Massive Cut in FY24 Profit Guidance

<ul>
<li>During 9M2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP)</a> reported revenue growth of 17% YoY to ¥1,479B, driven by 21% YoY revenue growth in pharmaceutical segment due to 16% growth in global products.</li>
<li>Despite the recording of impairment losses, operating profit increased 77% YoY to ¥203B, leading to a 460 bps expansion of margin to 13.7%. Net profit zoomed 46% YoY to ¥162B.</li>
<li>The company has raised 2023 revenue guidance, second time this year. Otsuka now expects 2023 revenue to grow 14% YoY to ¥1,985B, 4% ahead of prior guidance of ¥1,905B.</li>
</ul>


During 9M2023, Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) reported revenue growth of 17% YoY to ¥1,479B, driven by 21% YoY revenue growth in pharmaceutical segment due to 16% growth in global products.
Despite the recording of impairment losses, operating profit increased 77% YoY to ¥203B, leading to a 460 bps expansion of margin to 13.7%. Net profit zoomed 46% YoY to ¥162B.
The company has raised 2023 revenue guidance, second time this year. Otsuka now expects 2023 revenue to grow 14% YoY to ¥1,985B, 4% ahead of prior guidance of ¥1,905B.


Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Global Products Continue to Shine; Second Consequent 2023 Guidance Raise

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiichi-sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3014:1" rel="noopener">Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP)</a> reported strong H1FY24 results, with double-digit growth in revenue, core operating profit, and net profit, mainly driven by its global mainstay product Enhertu.</li>
<li>Daiichi Sankyo and Merck entered into a global development and commercialization agreement for three of Daiichi Sankyo’s drug candidates, for a total potential consideration of up to $22 billion.</li>
<li>Daiichi Sankyo has raised FY24 revenue, core operating profit, and net profit forecast by 7%, 11%, and 17%, respectively. FY24 revenue is expected to grow 21% YoY to ¥1,550 billion.</li>
</ul>



Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) reported strong H1FY24 results, with double-digit growth in revenue, core operating profit, and net profit, mainly driven by its global mainstay product Enhertu.
Daiichi Sankyo and Merck entered into a global development and commercialization agreement for three of Daiichi Sankyo’s drug candidates, for a total potential consideration of up to $22 billion.
Daiichi Sankyo has raised FY24 revenue, core operating profit, and net profit forecast by 7%, 11%, and 17%, respectively. FY24 revenue is expected to grow 21% YoY to ¥1,550 billion.


Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Landmark ADC Deal Pushes FY24 Revenue Guidance Higher

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiichi-sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3014:1" rel="noopener">Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP)</a> reported a 25% YoY revenue growth in Q1FY24, mainly driven by oncology drug Enhertu. The company reiterated FY24 guidance, with revenue and operating profit growing double-digit.</li>
<li>Daiichi Sankyo’s drug candidate datopotamab deruxtecan demonstrated statistically significant and clinically meaningful progression-free survival benefit in certain types of breast cancer patients in pivotal phase 3 trial.</li>
<li>Enhertu is well-positioned for geography and indication expansion as well as market share gain. Strengthening oncology portfolio and rich late-stage pipeline entail significant growth opportunity for the company.</li>
</ul>



Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) reported a 25% YoY revenue growth in Q1FY24, mainly driven by oncology drug Enhertu. The company reiterated FY24 guidance, with revenue and operating profit growing double-digit.
Daiichi Sankyo’s drug candidate datopotamab deruxtecan demonstrated statistically significant and clinically meaningful progression-free survival benefit in certain types of breast cancer patients in pivotal phase 3 trial.
Enhertu is well-positioned for geography and indication expansion as well as market share gain. Strengthening oncology portfolio and rich late-stage pipeline entail significant growth opportunity for the company.


Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Strong Start of FY24; Partnered Oncology Drug Candidate Hits First Goal

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.</li>
<li>This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.</li>
<li>We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare</li>
</ul>


Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.
This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.
We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare


Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Japan

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd focuses on the Research & Development, Manufacturing, Sales and Marketing and Import/Export of Pharmaceutical Drugs. The Company focuses on the following core therapeutic areas: Cardiovascular & Metabolic, Oncology, Central Nervous System, Respiratory & Immunology, General Medicine (Gastrointestinal & Genitourinary) and Vaccine.

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Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Underwhelming H1 Result; Massive Cut in FY24 Profit Guidance

In H1FY24, Astellas Pharma reported just 0.6% YoY revenue growth, while operating profit plunged 57% YoY and net profit decreased 67% YoY. The...

Tina Banerjee

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Global Products Continue to Shine; Second Consequent 2023 Guidance Raise

During 9M2023, Otsuka's global products revenue grew 16% YoY to ¥528B, representing 53% of pharmaceutical revenue. The company raised 2023 revenue...

Tina Banerjee

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Landmark ADC Deal Pushes FY24 Revenue Guidance Higher

Recent drug development deal calls for total potential consideration of up to $22B. Daiichi Sankyo raised FY24 sales, core operating profit, and...

Tina Banerjee

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Strong Start of FY24; Partnered Oncology Drug Candidate Hits First Goal

Daiichi Sankyo reports 25% YoY revenue growth in Q1, mainly driven by oncology drug Enhertu. Drug candidate Dato-DXd met primary endpoint in...

Tina Banerjee

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

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Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Underwhelming H1 Result; Massive Cut in FY24 Profit Guidance

In H1FY24, Astellas Pharma reported just 0.6% YoY revenue growth, while operating profit plunged 57% YoY and net profit decreased 67% YoY. The...

Tina Banerjee

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Global Products Continue to Shine; Second Consequent 2023 Guidance Raise

During 9M2023, Otsuka's global products revenue grew 16% YoY to ¥528B, representing 53% of pharmaceutical revenue. The company raised 2023 revenue...

Tina Banerjee

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Landmark ADC Deal Pushes FY24 Revenue Guidance Higher

Recent drug development deal calls for total potential consideration of up to $22B. Daiichi Sankyo raised FY24 sales, core operating profit, and...

Tina Banerjee

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Strong Start of FY24; Partnered Oncology Drug Candidate Hits First Goal

​Daiichi Sankyo reports 25% YoY revenue growth in Q1, mainly driven by oncology drug Enhertu. Drug candidate Dato-DXd met primary endpoint in...

Tina Banerjee

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

Daiichi Sankyo reports 25% YoY revenue growth in Q1, mainly driven by oncology drug Enhertu. Drug candidate Dato-DXd met primary endpoint in...