Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

In this insight, we discuss our initial thoughts on the Krafton IPO. According to the bankers' valuation, the expected market cap of the company is expected to be from 23.7 trillion won to 28.8 trillion won (IPO price range of 458,000 won to 557,000 won).<div class="content-highlight">Our base case valuation of Krafton is an implied market cap of 24.1 trillion won or 465,055 won per share. Our valuation sensitivity suggests a valuation range from 18.3 trillion won to 30.6 trillion won. Our base case valuation of 465,055 won is close to the low end of the IPO price range of 458,000 won to 557,000 won. Given the lack of upside, we would PASS on this IPO deal. </div>

In this insight, we discuss our initial thoughts on the Krafton IPO. According to the bankers' valuation, the expected market cap of the company is expected to be from 23.7 trillion won to 28.8 trillion won (IPO price range of 458,000 won to 557,000 won).Our base case valuation of Krafton is an implied market cap of 24.1 trillion won or 465,055 won per share. Our valuation sensitivity suggests a valuation range from 18.3 trillion won to 30.6 trillion won. Our base case valuation of 465,055 won is close to the low end of the IPO price range of 458,000 won to 557,000 won. Given the lack of upside, we would PASS on this IPO deal. 

Initial Thoughts on the Krafton IPO Valuation

<div class="content-highlight">In this insight, we discuss the 9 major risks (excluding valuation issues) for Krafton. Overall, we believe these significant risk factors could result in much lower than expected demand for the Krafton IPO shares, especially among the institutional investors unless the IPO price range is lowered significantly. </div>1) Too much dependent on one game PUBG2) Krafton's big political risk with China (Game for Peace)3) Political risks of operating PUBG in overseas countries such as India  4) Company's sales growth in 2020 helped by COVID-195) Declining sales and profit growth in 1Q 20216) Comparable companies' worsening sales and profit trend in 1Q 20217) Potential acquisitions may not add value8) Expansion into other entertainment related business may involve execution risks9) Insiders are selling too much in this IPO

In this insight, we discuss the 9 major risks (excluding valuation issues) for Krafton. Overall, we believe these significant risk factors could result in much lower than expected demand for the Krafton IPO shares, especially among the institutional investors unless the IPO price range is lowered significantly. 1) Too much dependent on one game PUBG2) Krafton's big political risk with China (Game for Peace)3) Political risks of operating PUBG in overseas countries such as India  4) Company's sales growth in 2020 helped by COVID-195) Declining sales and profit growth in 1Q 20216) Comparable companies' worsening sales and profit trend in 1Q 20217) Potential acquisitions may not add value8) Expansion into other entertainment related business may involve execution risks9) Insiders are selling too much in this IPO 

Equity Bottom-Up

International Games System / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/international-games-system-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3486:1" rel="noopener">International Games System (3293 TT)</a> (IGS) is one of the leading social online gaming companies in Taiwan. IGS's core products include social casino games, casual games, and arcade games.Despite risks including declining sales of Arcade Games and potential regulatory risks associated with social casino online games, we believe many investors will focus on the positives and continue to add to their positions of this undervalued stock. Key catalysts of the company are as follows:<ul>
<li>Tremendous growth in online/mobile social casino &amp; casual games</li>
<li>Strong sales growth in Jan-Apr 2021 </li>
<li>Improving profit margins</li>
<li>High dividend payout</li>
</ul>

International Games System (3293 TT) (IGS) is one of the leading social online gaming companies in Taiwan. IGS's core products include social casino games, casual games, and arcade games.Despite risks including declining sales of Arcade Games and potential regulatory risks associated with social casino online games, we believe many investors will focus on the positives and continue to add to their positions of this undervalued stock. Key catalysts of the company are as follows:
Tremendous growth in online/mobile social casino &amp; casual games
Strong sales growth in Jan-Apr 2021 
Improving profit margins
High dividend payout


International Games System: An Undervalued Online Social Gaming Stock in Taiwan

<div class="content-highlight">The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coupang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28425:1" rel="noopener">Coupang (CPNG US)</a> IPO has been one of the most successful IPOs for a company whose operations are mainly in Korea. There are likely to be a lot more Korean based companies (both public and private) that will consider listing their shares in the US market after a hugely successfully Coupang IPO. In this insight, we discuss 14 major Korean companies that may try to list their shares in the US exchanges in the next several years in order to reduce the infamous "Korea discount."</div>14 Korean Companies That May List Their Shares in the US Stock Exchange:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">1) Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>2) Kurly (Private)3) SmartStudy (Private)4) Naver Webtoon (Private) 5) Krafton (Private) 6) LG Energy Solution (Private) 7) 11st (Private) 8) SSG.com (Private) 9) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ncsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5169:1" rel="noopener">NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)</a>10) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp (035420 KS)</a>11) Kakao Entertainment (Private)  12) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>13) Tmon (Private) 14) Non private equity firm that acquires Ebay Korea

The Coupang (CPNG US) IPO has been one of the most successful IPOs for a company whose operations are mainly in Korea. There are likely to be a lot more Korean based companies (both public and private) that will consider listing their shares in the US market after a hugely successfully Coupang IPO. In this insight, we discuss 14 major Korean companies that may try to list their shares in the US exchanges in the next several years in order to reduce the infamous "Korea discount."14 Korean Companies That May List Their Shares in the US Stock Exchange:1) Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)2) Kurly (Private)3) SmartStudy (Private)4) Naver Webtoon (Private) 5) Krafton (Private) 6) LG Energy Solution (Private) 7) 11st (Private) 8) SSG.com (Private) 9) NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)10) Naver Corp (035420 KS)11) Kakao Entertainment (Private)  12) Kakao Corp (035720 KS)13) Tmon (Private) 14) Non private equity firm that acquires Ebay Korea 

Top 14 Korean Companies That May List in the US Stock Exchanges - Close The "Korea Discount Gap"

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Roblox, an online gaming platform geared towards children, is poised to continue the accelerating usage and monetization triggered by the pandemic. Its business model produces a flywheel where its audience grows as new games are introduced, further incentivizing its user/developers to create more user generated content that strengthens the platform. A large, hyper engaged youth audience offers Roblox open-ended optionality around advertising, sponsorships, and other new monetization avenues. Already highly cash generative, Roblox is poised to invest in localization efforts to expand its global reach, while potentially introducing new metaverse-based gaming platforms for older demographics. 
Base Case Valuation: $30B Bull Case: $60B Bear Case: $10B
<div class="content-highlight">
Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  
</div>

Roblox, an online gaming platform geared towards children, is poised to continue the accelerating usage and monetization triggered by the pandemic. Its business model produces a flywheel where its audience grows as new games are introduced, further incentivizing its user/developers to create more user generated content that strengthens the platform. A large, hyper engaged youth audience offers Roblox open-ended optionality around advertising, sponsorships, and other new monetization avenues. Already highly cash generative, Roblox is poised to invest in localization efforts to expand its global reach, while potentially introducing new metaverse-based gaming platforms for older demographics. 
Base Case Valuation: $30B Bull Case: $60B Bear Case: $10B

Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  


Roblox: If Its in the Game, Its in the Game

United States

Electronic Arts Inc. develops, publishes, and distributes branded interactive entertainment software worldwide for video game consoles, personal computers, handheld game players, and cellular handsets. The Company also provides online game-related services.

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Electronic Arts (EA US)

Initial Thoughts on the Krafton IPO Valuation

Our base case valuation of Krafton is an implied market cap of 24.1 trillion won or 465,055 won per share. Given the lack of upside relative to the...

Douglas Kim

Krafton IPO - 9 Major Risks

We discuss the 9 major risks (excluding valuation issues) for Krafton. Overall, we believe these significant risk factors could result in much...

Douglas Kim

Top 14 Korean Companies That May List in the US Stock Exchanges - Close The "Korea Discount Gap"

In this insight, we discuss 14 major Korean companies that may try to list their shares in the US exchanges in the next several years in order to...

Douglas Kim

Roblox: If Its in the Game, Its in the Game

Roblox is set to IPO tomorrow. We think its a unique asset and are inclined to own this depending on how outlandish valuation turns out to be as...

Aaron Gabin

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52-week Range

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Initial Thoughts on the Krafton IPO Valuation

Our base case valuation of Krafton is an implied market cap of 24.1 trillion won or 465,055 won per share. Given the lack of upside relative to the...

Douglas Kim

Krafton IPO - 9 Major Risks

We discuss the 9 major risks (excluding valuation issues) for Krafton. Overall, we believe these significant risk factors could result in much...

Douglas Kim

International Games System: An Undervalued Online Social Gaming Stock in Taiwan

International Games System (3293 TT) is high growth, social games provider in Taiwan that we believe is undervalued versus leading global social...

Douglas Kim

Top 14 Korean Companies That May List in the US Stock Exchanges - Close The "Korea Discount Gap"

In this insight, we discuss 14 major Korean companies that may try to list their shares in the US exchanges in the next several years in order to...

Douglas Kim

Roblox: If Its in the Game, Its in the Game

Roblox is set to IPO tomorrow. We think its a unique asset and are inclined to own this depending on how outlandish valuation turns out to be as...

Aaron Gabin