Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Chinese automotive maintenance services platform Tuhu Car has announced the terms for its HKEx IPO. Tuhu plans to raise net proceeds of HK$1.0-1.1bn (US$132-161m) through the issuance of 40.62m shares.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tuhu-car" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36012:1" rel="noopener">Tuhu Car (2007986D HK)</a> 's franchised business model seems to have worked well, while its focus on high margin products/services have helped improve profitability.</li>
<li>In this insight, we discuss our forecasts and valuation for the company, and our analysis suggests that Tuhu Car’s IPO is priced reasonably.</li>
</ul>


Chinese automotive maintenance services platform Tuhu Car has announced the terms for its HKEx IPO. Tuhu plans to raise net proceeds of HK$1.0-1.1bn (US$132-161m) through the issuance of 40.62m shares.

Tuhu Car (2007986D HK) 's franchised business model seems to have worked well, while its focus on high margin products/services have helped improve profitability.
In this insight, we discuss our forecasts and valuation for the company, and our analysis suggests that Tuhu Car’s IPO is priced reasonably.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume rose 2% YoY and 8% MoM to 1.92mn units in Aug 2023, the 3rd highest Aug in history, and 1% higher than our prior forecast.</li><li>YTD retail sales volume rose 3% YoY. Wholesale volume rose 7% YoY and 8% MoM to 2.27mn units in Aug 2023, the best Aug in history, and 2% higher than our prior forecast.</li><li>Wholesale volume rose 7% YoY (or +0.99mn units YoY) YTD, aided by 70% YoY growth (or +1.01mn units YoY) of exports. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume rose 2% YoY and 8% MoM to 1.92mn units in Aug 2023, the 3rd highest Aug in history, and 1% higher than our prior forecast.YTD retail sales volume rose 3% YoY. Wholesale volume rose 7% YoY and 8% MoM to 2.27mn units in Aug 2023, the best Aug in history, and 2% higher than our prior forecast.Wholesale volume rose 7% YoY (or +0.99mn units YoY) YTD, aided by 70% YoY growth (or +1.01mn units YoY) of exports. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – More NEV Model Rollouts as a Positive Catalyst

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> is a potential deletion in December and that could result in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a> being added to the index.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.36% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$845m. Passives will need to trade over 1x ADV on both stocks.</li>
<li>There is a very small impact on the fair value of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> 2023 dividend futures but there will be a larger impact on the dividend futures expiring in 2024.</li>
</ul>



Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) is a potential deletion in December and that could result in China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK) being added to the index.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.36% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$845m. Passives will need to trade over 1x ADV on both stocks.
There is a very small impact on the fair value of the HSCEI 2023 dividend futures but there will be a larger impact on the dividend futures expiring in 2024.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: China Unicom (762) Could Replace Zhongsheng (881)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tuhu-car" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36012:1" rel="noopener">Tuhu Car (2007986D HK)</a>, a leading integrated online and offline platform for automotive service in China, is set to open books for its US$300 million IPO.   </li>
<li>Among independent aftermarket (IAM) stores in China, Tuhu ranked first in terms of both number of stores as of 31 December 2022 and annual automotive service revenue in 2022.</li>
<li>The investment case rests on the return to growth, improving gross margin, a shift to profitability and a return to cash generation.</li>
</ul>



Tuhu Car (2007986D HK), a leading integrated online and offline platform for automotive service in China, is set to open books for its US$300 million IPO.   
Among independent aftermarket (IAM) stores in China, Tuhu ranked first in terms of both number of stores as of 31 December 2022 and annual automotive service revenue in 2022.
The investment case rests on the return to growth, improving gross margin, a shift to profitability and a return to cash generation.


<ul><li>We summarize the Aug 2023 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.</li><li>Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on weighted average of Jul 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Aug retail sales volume data have not been released yet.</li><li>Discounts at dealers for most brands widened mildly MoM in Aug 2023, as the price war persists with more and more competitive product rollouts and raw-material price decline.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Aug 2023 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on weighted average of Jul 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Aug retail sales volume data have not been released yet.Discounts at dealers for most brands widened mildly MoM in Aug 2023, as the price war persists with more and more competitive product rollouts and raw-material price decline.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Aug discounts widened slightly MoM

China

China Yongda Automobiles Services Holdings Ltd. retails passenger vehicles. The Company sells new and used vehicles and offers automobile rentals. China Yongda Automobiles also provides service.

China Yongda Automobile Services Hldg (3669 HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Yongda Automobile Services Hldg (3669 HK)

Tuhu Car IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

Tuhu Car priced its IPO at HK$28.00 per share, at the bottom end of the IPO price range and raised net proceeds of HK$1,081m (US$138m) excluding...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

China Auto Sector – More NEV Model Rollouts as a Positive Catalyst

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume rose 2% YoY and 8% MoM to 1.92mn units in Aug 2023, the 3rd highest Aug in history, and 1%...

CMB International

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: China Unicom (762) Could Replace Zhongsheng (881)

China Unicom could replace Zhongsheng Holdings in the HSCEI in Dec. Passives need to trade over 1x ADV on both stocks. There will be the usual...

Brian Freitas

TUHU Car IPO: The Investment Case

The investment case rests on the return to growth, improving gross margin, a shift to profitability and a return to cash generation.

Arun George

China Auto Sector – Aug discounts widened slightly MoM

Discounts at dealers for most brands widened mildly MoM in Aug 2023, as the price war persists with more and more competitive product rollouts and...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)