New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Retailers are facing a challenging outlook</li><li>We expect to see signs of consumers cutting back on non-essential spend by mid-2023</li><li>In this Santa's Stocking report, we include a budget-friendly gift guide for the whole family which works for both last-minute Christmas presents, or gift ideas for the coming year.</li></ul>

Retailers are facing a challenging outlookWe expect to see signs of consumers cutting back on non-essential spend by mid-2023In this Santa's Stocking report, we include a budget-friendly gift guide for the whole family which works for both last-minute Christmas presents, or gift ideas for the coming year.

Retail Sector: Santa's Stocking: What's in Store for Christmas?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Sharekhan

Sharekhan

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Sharekhan is India's leading broking house providing services from easy online trading, research to wide array of financial products. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Restaurant Brand Asia’s (RBA’s) Q2FY2025 performance was affected by negative SSSG in the India business and sustained weakness in Indonesia; EBITDA margins rose y-o-y aided by better profitability of the India delivery business and multiple initiatives in Indonesia.</li><li>For India business, focus continues to be on increasing dine-in traffic, making delivery business profitable and digital transformation.</li><li>It is eyeing 69% gross margins from the India biz by FY2027. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Restaurant Brand Asia’s (RBA’s) Q2FY2025 performance was affected by negative SSSG in the India business and sustained weakness in Indonesia; EBITDA margins rose y-o-y aided by better profitability of the India delivery business and multiple initiatives in Indonesia.For India business, focus continues to be on increasing dine-in traffic, making delivery business profitable and digital transformation.It is eyeing 69% gross margins from the India biz by FY2027. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Restaurant Brands Asia Ltd - India Biz Margins Improve; Weak Indonesia

<ul><li>We upgrade Restaurant Brands (RBD) to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM. </li><li>RBD's 4Q23 trading update reiterated FY23 NPAT guidance of NZ$12m to NZ$16m, suggesting a strong recovery in 2H23 margins and providing some reassurance that input cost pressures may be past their peak.</li><li>While near-term risks remain elevated, including signs of weakening Australian consumer demand, minimum wage increases in California (from April), and the two KFC class action lawsuits in Australia, these are somewhat mitigated by improving gross margins and consumer sentiment in RBD's core New Zealand market. </li></ul>

We upgrade Restaurant Brands (RBD) to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM. RBD's 4Q23 trading update reiterated FY23 NPAT guidance of NZ$12m to NZ$16m, suggesting a strong recovery in 2H23 margins and providing some reassurance that input cost pressures may be past their peak.While near-term risks remain elevated, including signs of weakening Australian consumer demand, minimum wage increases in California (from April), and the two KFC class action lawsuits in Australia, these are somewhat mitigated by improving gross margins and consumer sentiment in RBD's core New Zealand market. 

Restaurant Brands NZ - Back in the Kitchen — Upgrade to NEUTRAL

<ul><li>Restaurant Brands (RBD) has released a disappointing 1H23 result which was below our and consensus expectations. Key negatives included (1) significant ingredient cost inflation impacting EBITDA margins, particularly in the core NZ market, (2) difficulty raising prices without impacting sales volume as consumers appear to be more price-sensitive across all markets, and (3) higher expenses across non-operating items including depreciation and interest.</li><li>RBD reiterated its FY23 NPAT guidance range of NZ$12m to NZ$16m, implying a significant uplift in 2H23 profitability is required to meet guidance.</li><li>Our FY23 NPAT forecast is ~NZ$10m. This reflects our view that challenging macro-economic conditions and cost pressures are likely to persist over the next six months. </li></ul>

Restaurant Brands (RBD) has released a disappointing 1H23 result which was below our and consensus expectations. Key negatives included (1) significant ingredient cost inflation impacting EBITDA margins, particularly in the core NZ market, (2) difficulty raising prices without impacting sales volume as consumers appear to be more price-sensitive across all markets, and (3) higher expenses across non-operating items including depreciation and interest.RBD reiterated its FY23 NPAT guidance range of NZ$12m to NZ$16m, implying a significant uplift in 2H23 profitability is required to meet guidance.Our FY23 NPAT forecast is ~NZ$10m. This reflects our view that challenging macro-economic conditions and cost pressures are likely to persist over the next six months. 

Restaurant Brands NZ - 1H23 Result — From Sizzle to Fizzle

<ul><li>We downgrade Restaurant Brands (RBD) to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL.</li><li>This primarily reflects (1) limited ability to pass through price increases from this point without risking competitiveness versus peers, (2) slowing demand in US divisions with conditions likely to persist in the near-term, (3) adverse macro-economic conditions highlighting the risk of slowing demand in Australia and New Zealand, and (4) NZ supply contract re-negotiations suggesting reduced bargaining power in RBD's core NZ market. </li><li>RBD's updated FY23 NPAT guidance range is now between NZ$12m to NZ$16m. </li></ul>

We downgrade Restaurant Brands (RBD) to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL.This primarily reflects (1) limited ability to pass through price increases from this point without risking competitiveness versus peers, (2) slowing demand in US divisions with conditions likely to persist in the near-term, (3) adverse macro-economic conditions highlighting the risk of slowing demand in Australia and New Zealand, and (4) NZ supply contract re-negotiations suggesting reduced bargaining power in RBD's core NZ market. RBD's updated FY23 NPAT guidance range is now between NZ$12m to NZ$16m. 

Restaurant Brands NZ - Double Down(Grade) Hard to Swallow

New Zealand

Restaurant Brands New Zealand Limited operates fast food restaurant chains in New Zealand & Australia. The Company operates close to 300 stores which operate under the KFC, Pizza Hut and Starbucks restaurant names.

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Restaurant Brands NZ (RBD NZ)

Retail Sector: Santa's Stocking: What's in Store for Christmas?

Retailers are facing a challenging outlook - although consumer spending has been generally robust over the past 12 months, the double-edged sword...

Forsyth Barr

Restaurant Brands Asia Ltd - India Biz Margins Improve; Weak Indonesia

Restaurant Brand Asia’s (RBA’s) Q2FY2025 performance was affected by negative SSSG in the India business and sustained weakness in Indonesia

Sharekhan

Restaurant Brands NZ - Back in the Kitchen — Upgrade to NEUTRAL

We upgrade Restaurant Brands (RBD) to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM. RBD's 4Q23 trading update reiterated FY23 NPAT guidance of NZ$12m to NZ$16m

Forsyth Barr

Restaurant Brands NZ - 1H23 Result — From Sizzle to Fizzle

RBD reiterated its FY23 NPAT guidance range of NZ$12m to NZ$16m, implying a significant uplift in 2H23 profitability is required to meet guidance.

Forsyth Barr

Restaurant Brands NZ - Double Down(Grade) Hard to Swallow

This primarily reflects (1) limited ability to pass through price increases from this point without risking competitiveness versus peers

Forsyth Barr

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