Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Cisarua Mountain Dairy / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs. </li>
<li>Hong Kong IPO pipeline looks strong with Weilong Delicious Global, CANbridge Pharmaceuticals,  Asymchem Laboratories, and China Tourism Group either close to approval or seeking approval with HKEX soon.</li>
<li>Indonesia ECM is looking busier than ever this year with the launch of Cisarua Mountain Dairy (Cimory) and PT Avia Avian IPO bookbuilds this week.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs. 
Hong Kong IPO pipeline looks strong with Weilong Delicious Global, CANbridge Pharmaceuticals,  Asymchem Laboratories, and China Tourism Group either close to approval or seeking approval with HKEX soon.
Indonesia ECM is looking busier than ever this year with the launch of Cisarua Mountain Dairy (Cimory) and PT Avia Avian IPO bookbuilds this week.


ECM Weekly (14th November 2021) - Cimory, Infervision, Daiwa House REIT, Weilong Delicious

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

In this year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)</a> (CDFC) has been affected by the on-and-off scattered local COVID-19 cases that negatively impacted duty free sales. The outbreak in Jiangsu, Henan and Hunan in Aug has impaired the traditional peak summer season for the company. However, we see some recent developments to be relatively positive, and we updated our earnings expectations for CDFC which still projects phenomenal growth in next two years. Lately, six of its subsidiaries in Hainan have confirmed to enjoy preferential tax rate of 15% starting 1 Jan 2020, and the retrospective impact will be reflected in 3Q21, and such positive tax benefits will continue until FY24. Also, the negative impact of tourists arrival in Aug seems to be less adverse than expected. And finally, initial Golden Week sales figures for Hainan duty free showed an increase of 75% YoY in the first five days, and this is an encouraging sign of the pick-up in CDFC's business momentum.

In this year, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) (CDFC) has been affected by the on-and-off scattered local COVID-19 cases that negatively impacted duty free sales. The outbreak in Jiangsu, Henan and Hunan in Aug has impaired the traditional peak summer season for the company. However, we see some recent developments to be relatively positive, and we updated our earnings expectations for CDFC which still projects phenomenal growth in next two years. Lately, six of its subsidiaries in Hainan have confirmed to enjoy preferential tax rate of 15% starting 1 Jan 2020, and the retrospective impact will be reflected in 3Q21, and such positive tax benefits will continue until FY24. Also, the negative impact of tourists arrival in Aug seems to be less adverse than expected. And finally, initial Golden Week sales figures for Hainan duty free showed an increase of 75% YoY in the first five days, and this is an encouraging sign of the pick-up in CDFC's business momentum. 

CTG Duty Free (601888 CH): Latest Updates - Taxes, Tourists & Golden Week

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)</a> (CDF) aims to raise around US$5-10bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong. CDF is the largest travel retail operator in the world primarily focusing on sales of high-quality duty-free and duty-paid merchandise to domestic and international travelers. As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, it had 92.3% market share by retail revenue in China duty-free merchandise sales in 2020.As the A-shares are already listed and well covered, we will treat this listing more like a placement rather than an IPO. However, given the large potential size of the listing, we will go into more details than we would for a regular placement. Hence, in this note we will briefly cover the company’s background and recent performance before touching upon the deal dynamics.

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) (CDF) aims to raise around US$5-10bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong. CDF is the largest travel retail operator in the world primarily focusing on sales of high-quality duty-free and duty-paid merchandise to domestic and international travelers. As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, it had 92.3% market share by retail revenue in China duty-free merchandise sales in 2020.As the A-shares are already listed and well covered, we will treat this listing more like a placement rather than an IPO. However, given the large potential size of the listing, we will go into more details than we would for a regular placement. Hence, in this note we will briefly cover the company’s background and recent performance before touching upon the deal dynamics.

China Tourism Group A/H Listing Early Look - Over US$5bn Raising for a Monopoly on Chinese Tourists

We have expressed our positive view on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)</a> in various Insights previously. In this Insight, we look at the proposed H-share IPO from the perspective of investors who do not know it well. For seasoned investors in this name, this Insight serves as a summary of our views and provides background details on the proposed IPO.Fundamentally speaking, the key positives for CTG Duty Free are: 1.) absolute leadership in China's duty free market, 2.) encouraging growth outlook, and 3.) solid profitability and financial position. Key negatives are: 1.) policy risk and rising competition, 2.) concern on payback of new projects, and 3.) risk of overseas expansion. If the IPO is being priced at the current average H-A discount, it will be on 32.7x FY21F PER, we see this not expensive relative to the premium retailers listed in Hong Kong.

We have expressed our positive view on China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) in various Insights previously. In this Insight, we look at the proposed H-share IPO from the perspective of investors who do not know it well. For seasoned investors in this name, this Insight serves as a summary of our views and provides background details on the proposed IPO.Fundamentally speaking, the key positives for CTG Duty Free are: 1.) absolute leadership in China's duty free market, 2.) encouraging growth outlook, and 3.) solid profitability and financial position. Key negatives are: 1.) policy risk and rising competition, 2.) concern on payback of new projects, and 3.) risk of overseas expansion. If the IPO is being priced at the current average H-A discount, it will be on 32.7x FY21F PER, we see this not expensive relative to the premium retailers listed in Hong Kong. 

CTG Duty Free (601888 CH) H-Share Pre-IPO: Fundamentally Speaking

We believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)</a> (CTG Duty Free) will maintain its solid sales momentum in 2Q21, given the positive Hainan duty free sales figures (estimated monthly average of Rmb5bn in Apr and May) as released by the Department of Commerce and good tourist arrival trend in Apr (-1.3% MoM, vs. -13.1% MoM in Apr 2019). We also project an EPS CAGR of 49.2% between FY20 and FY23 with ROE of over 40% consistently.CTG Duty Free's Board has approved its proposed H-share issue, with new shares to be issued amounting to 9.2% of existing capital (including greenshoe). We estimate that the issue may raise HK$47-66bn, making it one of the largest IPOs in Hong Kong in this year.  In our view, the stock should attract good interests given its unique consumption exposure, leadership position and sizeable market capitalisation.

We believe China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) (CTG Duty Free) will maintain its solid sales momentum in 2Q21, given the positive Hainan duty free sales figures (estimated monthly average of Rmb5bn in Apr and May) as released by the Department of Commerce and good tourist arrival trend in Apr (-1.3% MoM, vs. -13.1% MoM in Apr 2019). We also project an EPS CAGR of 49.2% between FY20 and FY23 with ROE of over 40% consistently.CTG Duty Free's Board has approved its proposed H-share issue, with new shares to be issued amounting to 9.2% of existing capital (including greenshoe). We estimate that the issue may raise HK$47-66bn, making it one of the largest IPOs in Hong Kong in this year.  In our view, the stock should attract good interests given its unique consumption exposure, leadership position and sizeable market capitalisation. 

CTG Duty Free (601888 CH): Latest Updates and Moving Ahead on H-Share IPO

China

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited engages in sales of duty free goods and tax goods. The Company sells tobacco, wine and spirits, perfume, cosmetics, fashion and accessories, watches, jewelry, food, luggage products,and other products. China Tourism Group Duty Free also engages in investment and development of tourism destination commercial complexes.

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)

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China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)

ECM Weekly (14th November 2021) - Cimory, Infervision, Daiwa House REIT, Weilong Delicious

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

CTG Duty Free (601888 CH): Latest Updates - Taxes, Tourists & Golden Week

CDFC has a tough Aug due to the local COVID-19 cases, but recent news flow including lower tax rates, less serious decline in tourists arrivals and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tourism Group A/H Listing Early Look - Over US$5bn Raising for a Monopoly on Chinese Tourists

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) aims to raise around US$5-10bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong. It had 92.3% market share by...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ECM Weekly (14th November 2021) - Cimory, Infervision, Daiwa House REIT, Weilong Delicious

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

CTG Duty Free (601888 CH): Latest Updates - Taxes, Tourists & Golden Week

CDFC has a tough Aug due to the local COVID-19 cases, but recent news flow including lower tax rates, less serious decline in tourists arrivals and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tourism Group A/H Listing Early Look - Over US$5bn Raising for a Monopoly on Chinese Tourists

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) aims to raise around US$5-10bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong. It had 92.3% market share by...

Sumeet Singh

CTG Duty Free (601888 CH) H-Share Pre-IPO: Fundamentally Speaking

In relation to CTG Duty Free's H-share IPO, key positives are: 1.) absolute leadership in China's duty free market, 2.) encouraging growth outlook,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CTG Duty Free (601888 CH): Latest Updates and Moving Ahead on H-Share IPO

2Q21 should be another good quarter for CTG Duty Free, based on Customs and tourist arrival figures. Its Board has approved its H-share IPO and we...

Osbert Tang, CFA