Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Iran Conflict has driven up fuel prices near-term, which will eat into carrier profitability</li>
<li>But the conflict also delays potential Suez re-opening, which is positive for supply side</li>
<li>Shares of carriers have mostly jumped in March, with some up as much as 11% MTD </li>
</ul>


Iran Conflict has driven up fuel prices near-term, which will eat into carrier profitability
But the conflict also delays potential Suez re-opening, which is positive for supply side
Shares of carriers have mostly jumped in March, with some up as much as 11% MTD 


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Iran Conflict Lifts Fuel Prices, Spot Rates, & Carrier Shares

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Not long ago, Reuters came out with a headline saying Elliott had taken a "significant stake" in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-o-s-k-lines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20717:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (9104 JP)</a> ("MOL"). Minutes later, Elliott issued a <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/elliott-management-statement-on-mitsui-osk-lines-ltd-302716722.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">press release</a>. </li>
<li>Shares had been trading at 0.77x book (0.85x TBV) after rising significantly these past few months. They popped 10+% in short order. </li>
<li>Elliott sees Mitsui OSK as undervalued, wants to "work constructively" with MOL to ensure its "upcoming MTMP" is "appropriately ambitious." They are pushing with a tailwind.</li>
</ul>


Not long ago, Reuters came out with a headline saying Elliott had taken a "significant stake" in Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (9104 JP) ("MOL"). Minutes later, Elliott issued a press release. 
Shares had been trading at 0.77x book (0.85x TBV) after rising significantly these past few months. They popped 10+% in short order. 
Elliott sees Mitsui OSK as undervalued, wants to "work constructively" with MOL to ensure its "upcoming MTMP" is "appropriately ambitious." They are pushing with a tailwind.


[Japan Activism] Elliott Buys Stake In Mitsui OSK (9104) Targets Capital With a Following Wind

Orient Overseas (International) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Deep-Sea container rates turned weaker again in Jan-Feb, likely obliterating carrier profits</li>
<li>Another round of US tariff uncertainty should dampen near-term NAM demand further</li>
<li>Excess supply, Suez re-opening, now US tariff chaos? SHORT deep-sea container carriers</li>
</ul>


Deep-Sea container rates turned weaker again in Jan-Feb, likely obliterating carrier profits
Another round of US tariff uncertainty should dampen near-term NAM demand further
Excess supply, Suez re-opening, now US tariff chaos? SHORT deep-sea container carriers


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Weak Price in Jan-Feb | Softer NAM Demand | Now US Tariff Mess

<ul>
<li>On Thursday February 5 Maersk reported in-line FY25 results and a Q425 EBIT loss in <em>Ocean</em>
</li>
<li>In FY26 Maersk expects a -40% Y/Y decline in EBITDA and an EBIT <strong>loss</strong> on lower freight rates</li>
<li>We expect smaller carriers (including Asian names) to suffer even more than Maersk in FY26</li>
</ul>


On Thursday February 5 Maersk reported in-line FY25 results and a Q425 EBIT loss in Ocean

In FY26 Maersk expects a -40% Y/Y decline in EBITDA and an EBIT loss on lower freight rates
We expect smaller carriers (including Asian names) to suffer even more than Maersk in FY26


Maersk FY25 Results and FY26 Guidance: Leading Carrier Expects FY26 EBIT Loss Due to Lower Rates

<ul>
<li>Price momentum remains weak (our index -22%), spot rates down sharply in January</li>
<li>North American Pacific coast ports inbound volume down ~5% Y/Y in December</li>
<li>Testing the waters: carriers remain cautious about quick return to Suez Canal</li>
</ul>


Price momentum remains weak (our index -22%), spot rates down sharply in January
North American Pacific coast ports inbound volume down ~5% Y/Y in December
Testing the waters: carriers remain cautious about quick return to Suez Canal


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Spot Rates Weaker Ahead of LNY | Suez Canal Re-Opening Update

Japan

Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha mainly provides marine transportation services and transportation management solution from international hub ports to both domestic and international ports. The Company operates container transportation, tramp and specialized carriers, and logistics and cruise lines. Nippon Yusen offers scheduled and unscheduled transportation services around the world.

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Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Iran Conflict Lifts Fuel Prices, Spot Rates, & Carrier Shares

The conflict in Iran has lead to a doubling of fuel prices, which adds to pressure on container carrier profitability. The group's outperformance...

Tracking Traffic

[Japan Activism] Elliott Buys Stake In Mitsui OSK (9104) Targets Capital With a Following Wind

Reuters carried a headline, followed shortly afterwards by a short Elliott PR saying Elliott was invested in Mitsui OSK. Some comment about the new...

Travis Lundy

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Weak Price in Jan-Feb | Softer NAM Demand | Now US Tariff Mess

January and February deep-sea container rates have softened noticeably, probably wiping out most carriers' profit margins altogether. Conditions...

Tracking Traffic

Maersk FY25 Results and FY26 Guidance: Leading Carrier Expects FY26 EBIT Loss Due to Lower Rates

Maersk managed to hit FY25 guidance, but also issued downbeat FY26 guidance, including an expected EBIT loss (at mid-point of range). Conditions in...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Spot Rates Weaker Ahead of LNY | Suez Canal Re-Opening Update

Underlying supply-demand conditions for deep sea container carriers remain weak, with poor US consumer sentiment and rapid capacity growth. A Suez...

Tracking Traffic

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