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David Riedel

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Independent equity research on GEM Markets

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In June the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) increased to a level of 115.9, just below the threshold level of 116 indicating consumers are in a state of panic. We continue to highlight our view that China’s economy is much stronger than depressed levels of Consumer Sentiment would suggest. We believe the Chinese government is aware of its recent confidence destabilizing policy moves and is focused on avoiding such moves in the near future, allowing consumers to pull out of a prolonged period of panic. Data collection for the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Survey ended by the June 23rd Brexit referendum. While it is not yet clear what impact the Brexit will have on the CSI it has the potential to adversely change the global economic outlook and the outlook for China. Over the next few weeks we will be monitoring the spillover effects of the Brexit carefully.

In June the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) increased to a level of 115.9, just below the threshold level of 116 indicating consumers are in a state of panic.  We continue to highlight our view that China’s economy is much stronger than depressed levels of Consumer Sentiment would suggest. We believe the Chinese government is aware of its recent confidence destabilizing policy moves and is focused on avoiding such moves in the near future, allowing consumers to pull out of a prolonged period of panic.  Data collection for the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Survey ended by the June 23rd Brexit referendum. While it is not yet clear what impact the Brexit will have on the CSI it has the potential to adversely change the global economic outlook and the outlook for China.  Over the next few weeks we will be monitoring the spillover effects of the Brexit carefully.

China Consumer Sentiment Rises in June as Panic Surrounding Slowing Economy Continues to Dissipate

Following a ‘risk-on’ rally early in the early part of last week global stocks dropped going into Friday on concerns that a series of key events later this month may stress the global economy and financial markets.At the center of these concerns is the uncertainty surrounding the potential for the UK to exit the European Union (Brexit). On June 23rd voters will decide whether Britain will leave or remain in the European Union. Concerns over a possible Brexit surged on Friday following the release of a poll from the Independent showing increasing support for a Brexit, with 55% vote to ‘leave’ against a 45% vote to ‘remain’.Further fueling uncertainty is the US Feds upcoming FOMC meeting set to take place on June 15th. While the Fed is not expected to hike rates in June (the implied probability of a June rate hike is currently just 2%) , investors are very concerned that a surprise hike could trigger volatility across global financial markets.Our proprietary indicators continue to indicate the global economy is strong enough to withstand a potential shock stemming from a surprise rate hike in the US or a Brexit.

Following a ‘risk-on’ rally early in the early part of last week global stocks dropped going into Friday on concerns that a series of key events later this month may stress the global economy and financial markets.At the center of these concerns is the uncertainty surrounding the potential for the UK to exit the European Union (Brexit). On June 23rd voters will decide whether Britain will leave or remain in the European Union. Concerns over a possible Brexit surged on Friday following the release of a poll from the Independent showing increasing support for a Brexit, with 55% vote to ‘leave’ against a 45% vote to ‘remain’.Further fueling uncertainty is the US Feds upcoming FOMC meeting set to take place on June 15th. While the Fed is not expected to hike rates in June (the implied probability of a June rate hike is currently just 2%) , investors are very concerned that a surprise hike could trigger volatility across global financial markets.Our proprietary indicators continue to indicate the global economy is strong enough to withstand a potential shock stemming from a surprise rate hike in the US or a Brexit.

Anxiety Over Brexit Surges While Key Economic Data Continue to Improve

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty <ul>
<li>In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key threshold of 116 separating rationally pessimistic consumers from panicking consumers. </li>
<li>
Deterioration in the CSI during May stems from growing uncertainty over the future path of China’s monetary policy. As the urgent need for deleveraging has become apparent a mysterious article published by an anonymous 'authoritative figure' in the People's Daily…</li>
</ul>

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty 
In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key threshold of 116 separating rationally pessimistic consumers from panicking consumers. 

Deterioration in the CSI during May stems from growing uncertainty over the future path of China’s monetary policy. As the urgent need for deleveraging has become apparent a mysterious article published by an anonymous 'authoritative figure' in the People's Daily…


China Consumer Sentiment Snapshot - Urgent Need for Deleveraging Becomes Apparent

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Despite the promise of online retailing and its rapid growth, there are worrying signs that point to either a coming slowdown, data discrepancies, or unsustainable shifts in consumer behavior.  Though it is too soon to say for sure, what is happening, the warning signs are there.

Despite the promise of online retailing and its rapid growth, there are worrying signs that point to either a coming slowdown, data discrepancies, or unsustainable shifts in consumer behavior.  Though it is too soon to say for sure, what is happening, the warning signs are there.

<ol><li>Given the available data, we believe it indicates that Chinese consumer growth remains positive but significantly weaker than headline official numbers indicate.</li><li>Large retailers appear to be suffering near zero growth across a variety of products.</li><li>Online retailing is still growing rapidly but its rate of growth is slowing and remains responsible for only 10.6% of spending.</li><li>Due to the weakness in large retailers and strong but small market share of online retailers, this leaves only small and medium size retailers as driving official retail sales numbers. We find this a dubious conclusion.</li><li>The combined retail sales and physical output of consumer product data implies that retail and consumer spending is growing much closer to the 3-6% range than the official 11% retail sales growth.</li><li>Related services like transport and hotel is showing significant weakness that is more reflective of an overall weak retail and services sector.</li></ol>

Given the available data, we believe it indicates that Chinese consumer growth remains positive but significantly weaker than headline official numbers indicate.Large retailers appear to be suffering near zero growth across a variety of products.Online retailing is still growing rapidly but its rate of growth is slowing and remains responsible for only 10.6% of spending.Due to the weakness in large retailers and strong but small market share of online retailers, this leaves only small and medium size retailers as driving official retail sales numbers. We find this a dubious conclusion.The combined retail sales and physical output of consumer product data implies that retail and consumer spending is growing much closer to the 3-6% range than the official 11% retail sales growth.Related services like transport and hotel is showing significant weakness that is more reflective of an overall weak retail and services sector.

China

Intime Retail is a leading department store chain and mall operator in China, focusing on integrating online and offline shopping experiences and offering a wide range of retail goods and services. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

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Intime Retail (1612890D HK)

China Consumer Sentiment Rises in June as Panic Surrounding Slowing Economy Continues to Dissipate

In June the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) increased to a level of 115.9, just below the threshold level of 116 indicating consumers...

David Riedel

Anxiety Over Brexit Surges While Key Economic Data Continue to Improve

Following a ‘risk-on’ rally early in the early part of last week global stocks dropped going into Friday on concerns that a series of key events...

David Riedel

China Consumer Sentiment Snapshot - Urgent Need for Deleveraging Becomes Apparent

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key...

David Riedel

The State of Online Retailing in China

Despite the promise of online retailing and its rapid growth, there are worrying signs that point to either a coming slowdown, data discrepancies,...

Christopher Balding

Retail and Consumer Activity in China

Given the available data, we believe it indicates that Chinese consumer growth remains positive but significantly weaker than headline official...

Christopher Balding

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