Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SK Innovation will buy back its shares, worth about 10% of the total issued shares, through a tender offer and offer SK On stocks as consideration instead of cash.</li>
<li>Even if there is allocation risk, as only 10% of SO are targeted, expectations that pricing discrepancy can sufficiently offset this should be the factor driving up the price today.</li>
<li>Additional trading openings? This depends on the disparity widening between the intrinsic value of SK On and the exchange ratio.</li>
</ul>


SK Innovation will buy back its shares, worth about 10% of the total issued shares, through a tender offer and offer SK On stocks as consideration instead of cash.
Even if there is allocation risk, as only 10% of SO are targeted, expectations that pricing discrepancy can sufficiently offset this should be the factor driving up the price today.
Additional trading openings? This depends on the disparity widening between the intrinsic value of SK On and the exchange ratio.


Detailing & Assessing SK Innovation's Exchange Offer with SK On Shares as Consideration (10% of SO)

Mirae Asset TIGER Secondary Cell ETF / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There seems to be no constituent change this time. However, opportunities from cap reversion are likely to lead to noteworthy passive flows.</li>
<li>Ecopro BM and Ecopro Co will experience a weight movement of -4.35% and -3.68%p. On the other hand, SK Innovation will enjoy the most pleasant passive impact.</li>
<li>At KODEX Battery's March rebalancing, the Long SK Innovation Short Ecopro BM position setup provided a return of more than 10% with a similar level of impact x ADTV.</li>
</ul>


There seems to be no constituent change this time. However, opportunities from cap reversion are likely to lead to noteworthy passive flows.
Ecopro BM and Ecopro Co will experience a weight movement of -4.35% and -3.68%p. On the other hand, SK Innovation will enjoy the most pleasant passive impact.
At KODEX Battery's March rebalancing, the Long SK Innovation Short Ecopro BM position setup provided a return of more than 10% with a similar level of impact x ADTV.


Flow Trading Targeting Cap Reversion in TIGER Battery ETF Rebalancing on April 13

<ul>
<li>Notable constituent changes are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12421:1" rel="noopener">Posco Chemical (003670 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/douzone-bizon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20161:1" rel="noopener">Douzone Bizon (012510 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ecopro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19029:1" rel="noopener">Ecopro (086520 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/connectwave-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7191:1" rel="noopener">Connectwave (119860 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-innovation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1268:1" rel="noopener">SK Innovation (096770 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kmw-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2834:1" rel="noopener">KMW (032500 KS)</a>, &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanmi-science-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18549:1" rel="noopener">Hanmi Science (008930 KS)</a>.</li>
<li>Among these, <strong>Douzone Bizon (012510 KS)</strong> and <strong>KMW (032500 KS)</strong> are expected to receive the most significant flow impact (x ADTV) at the close of March 9th.</li>
<li>Since the flow size is concentrated within a fairly right trading window, between 2 pm and the close on the 9th, the degree of price impact should be relatively higher.</li>
</ul>


Notable constituent changes are Posco Chemical (003670 KS), Douzone Bizon (012510 KS), Ecopro (086520 KS), Connectwave (119860 KS), SK Innovation (096770 KS), KMW (032500 KS), &amp; Hanmi Science (008930 KS).
Among these, Douzone Bizon (012510 KS) and KMW (032500 KS) are expected to receive the most significant flow impact (x ADTV) at the close of March 9th.
Since the flow size is concentrated within a fairly right trading window, between 2 pm and the close on the 9th, the degree of price impact should be relatively higher.


K-New Deal Official Constituent Changes: Evaluating Flow Trading Opportunities

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance ended on 31 January, changes will be announced in the next few days and implemented at the close of trading on 9 March.</li>
<li>We forecast one add/delete for the Secondary Battery Index and Game Index, and a couple of adds/deletes for the BBIG Index. There will be a lot of capping changes.</li>
<li>The largest inflows are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12421:1" rel="noopener">Posco Chemical (003670 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/douzone-bizon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20161:1" rel="noopener">Douzone Bizon (012510 KS)</a>; the largest outflows are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-innovation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1268:1" rel="noopener">SK Innovation (096770 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kmw-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2834:1" rel="noopener">KMW (032500 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance ended on 31 January, changes will be announced in the next few days and implemented at the close of trading on 9 March.
We forecast one add/delete for the Secondary Battery Index and Game Index, and a couple of adds/deletes for the BBIG Index. There will be a lot of capping changes.
The largest inflows are expected on Posco Chemical (003670 KS) and Douzone Bizon (012510 KS); the largest outflows are expected on SK Innovation (096770 KS) and KMW (032500 KS).


KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Flows as Announcement Looms

<ul>
<li>Ecopro BM's weight has expanded to 22%. Since the probability of receiving a 15% cap is virtually 100%, it will inevitably undergo a weight change of up to nearly 7%p.</li>
<li>If the ongoing rally subsides before March 10th and returns to the January DTV level, the price impact could surge up to 0.3-0.4x daily for three trading days.</li>
<li>This seems to be a sufficient level for a shorting entry point. It may be worth considering an outright short position on Ecopro BM or Long Short with SK Innovation.</li>
</ul>


Ecopro BM's weight has expanded to 22%. Since the probability of receiving a 15% cap is virtually 100%, it will inevitably undergo a weight change of up to nearly 7%p.
If the ongoing rally subsides before March 10th and returns to the January DTV level, the price impact could surge up to 0.3-0.4x daily for three trading days.
This seems to be a sufficient level for a shorting entry point. It may be worth considering an outright short position on Ecopro BM or Long Short with SK Innovation.


Shorting Entry Point on Ecopro BM with KODEX Battery ETF Rebalancing on March 10

South Korea

SK Innovation Co., Ltd. refines, markets, and distributes oil.  The Company produces a variety of petroleum products, such as gasoline, kerosene, liquefied petroleumgas (LPG), and diesel oil.  SK Energy also manufactures petrochemical p roducts, including paraxylene, synthetic resins, styrene monomer, and ethylene.

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SK Innovation (096770 KS)

Detailing & Assessing SK Innovation's Exchange Offer with SK On Shares as Consideration (10% of SO)

This post details and assesses SK Innovation's exchange offer with SK On shares as consideration, which was disclosed this morning.

Sanghyun Park

Flow Trading Targeting Cap Reversion in TIGER Battery ETF Rebalancing on April 13

This post investigates potential flow trading opportunities targeting those subject to a 10% cap reversion in TIGER Battery ETF's upcoming...

Sanghyun Park

K-New Deal Official Constituent Changes: Evaluating Flow Trading Opportunities

This post comprehensively details KRX K-New Deal Indexes' rebalancing results and evaluates flow trading opportunities next week.

Sanghyun Park

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Flows as Announcement Looms

We forecast one change to the Secondary Battery and Game indices and two changes to the BBIG Index. There are big flows and impact on a few stocks....

Brian Freitas

Shorting Entry Point on Ecopro BM with KODEX Battery ETF Rebalancing on March 10

This post analyzes the potential shorting entry point for Ecopro BM in the upcoming KODEX Battery ETF rebalancing on March 10th.

Sanghyun Park

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