Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Cambricon Technologies  Lt / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With over 95% of the review period complete, 4 non-constituents are in inclusion zone and 6 constituents are in deletion zone.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 6.5% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 11.95bn (US$1.7bn). Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.</li>
<li>The potential adds have continued to outperform the potential deletes. There has been a big jump in the last few weeks as markets have rallied. Trim positions into strength.</li>
</ul>


With over 95% of the review period complete, 4 non-constituents are in inclusion zone and 6 constituents are in deletion zone.
We estimate one-way turnover of 6.5% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 11.95bn (US$1.7bn). Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.
The potential adds have continued to outperform the potential deletes. There has been a big jump in the last few weeks as markets have rallied. Trim positions into strength.


SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Inclusions Continue to Outperform; Trim into Strength

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A big "week" of 5 trading days from 30 Sep to 14 Oct, inclusive. Average AH premia dropped a lot. Liquid AH premia dropped less. Brokers are big winners.</li>
<li>Average AH volatility is super high. Intracorrelation of spreads quite low. Lots of room to market-make wide spreads/high premia. High premia may continue to contract on speculation.</li>
<li>Sharply differing onshore and offshore opinion regarding the nature and vibe of Chinese stimulus will lead to interesting dispersion. Identify the trend, then market make around it.</li>
</ul>


A big "week" of 5 trading days from 30 Sep to 14 Oct, inclusive. Average AH premia dropped a lot. Liquid AH premia dropped less. Brokers are big winners.
Average AH volatility is super high. Intracorrelation of spreads quite low. Lots of room to market-make wide spreads/high premia. High premia may continue to contract on speculation.
Sharply differing onshore and offshore opinion regarding the nature and vibe of Chinese stimulus will lead to interesting dispersion. Identify the trend, then market make around it.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 14 Oct 2024): AH Premia Drop Sharply; High Premia May Contract More

<ul>
<li>Repeat of last week: Miserable economic data continues. Trade geopol is mixed. Territorial geopol getting more serious. But SOUTHBOUND gross volumes way up.</li>
<li>AH Premia rose slightly as HK-listed shares outperformed mainland share indices. The HK/mainland spread is consistently better than H/A performance. It's not clear why. This week no exception.</li>
<li>This week will see limited H/A action because of the long Mid-Autumn Festival. Hopes are high for non-durables purchases this month. Maybe even homes. But I am skeptical...</li>
</ul>


Repeat of last week: Miserable economic data continues. Trade geopol is mixed. Territorial geopol getting more serious. But SOUTHBOUND gross volumes way up.
AH Premia rose slightly as HK-listed shares outperformed mainland share indices. The HK/mainland spread is consistently better than H/A performance. It's not clear why. This week no exception.
This week will see limited H/A action because of the long Mid-Autumn Festival. Hopes are high for non-durables purchases this month. Maybe even homes. But I am skeptical...


A/H Premium Tracker (To 13 Sep 2024): SB Buying of H Underperformance

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ETF flows showed subdued activity during the week although the Southbound Connect platform had a minor outflow.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a> both had positive news sentiment helping their share prices rally on better earnings announcements.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> announced a major asset impairment write-down sending its stock to historic lows.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK)</a> disappointed on 2Q24 sales and profits.
</li>
</ul>


ETF flows showed subdued activity during the week although the Southbound Connect platform had a minor outflow.

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) and China Feihe (6186 HK) both had positive news sentiment helping their share prices rally on better earnings announcements.


New World Development (17 HK) announced a major asset impairment write-down sending its stock to historic lows.  China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK) disappointed on 2Q24 sales and profits.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 7)

<ul>
<li>Miserable economic data, minimal other data. It was a VERY quiet week in terms of gross volumes as per the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hk-connect-southbound-flows-to-16-aug-2024-big-net-buying-on-tiny-overall-volume-etfs-big" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainland-connect-northbound-flows-to-16-aug-2024-banks-bought-industry-materials-sold" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NORTHBOUND</a> monitors.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND net buyer for 28th week in a row. ETFs and Tencent strong (14 of 15 days net bought). NORTHBOUND outflows small. Record foreign capital flight extends.</li>
<li>As expected (with AH 20d Premia returns at multi-year highs 2wks ago), AH Premia fell slightly, narrow premia falling more than wide premia. I continue to expect more H-vs-A gains.</li>
</ul>


Miserable economic data, minimal other data. It was a VERY quiet week in terms of gross volumes as per the SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND monitors.
SOUTHBOUND net buyer for 28th week in a row. ETFs and Tencent strong (14 of 15 days net bought). NORTHBOUND outflows small. Record foreign capital flight extends.
As expected (with AH 20d Premia returns at multi-year highs 2wks ago), AH Premia fell slightly, narrow premia falling more than wide premia. I continue to expect more H-vs-A gains.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 Aug 2024): SB/NB Volumes WAAAAAY Down; AH Premia Down Small

China

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and develops, and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs.

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Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Inclusions Continue to Outperform; Trim into Strength

There could be 5 changes in Dec. Estimate 1-way turnover is 6.5% leading to a one-way trade of CNY11.95bn (US$1.7bn). The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

A/H Premium Tracker (To 14 Oct 2024): AH Premia Drop Sharply; High Premia May Contract More

High AH premia contracted much more than narrow premia. Narrow premia actually widened on average. Brokers ballistic and there may be a bit more to...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 13 Sep 2024): SB Buying of H Underperformance

H/A saw outperformance of Hs vs As, but it was small, and weirdly, MUCH smaller than the HK/China major indices spreads. This week will be slow...

Travis Lundy

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 7)

China Feihe beat estmates for 2Q with higher profits and GW Motor substantially increased international sales of EV's. NWD will take a large asset...

David Mudd

A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 Aug 2024): SB/NB Volumes WAAAAAY Down; AH Premia Down Small

SB and NB flows were minimal. But SB continued to buy, NB continued to sell. AH Premia narrowed by about 50bp. Narrow premia narrowing more than...

Travis Lundy

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