European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly tightened during January 2025. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 12.9% (vs. 11.8% as of 31 December 2024); GBL, 40% (vs. 40.9%);</li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 13.2% (vs. 15.8%); Industrivärden C, 3.0% (vs. 5.5%); Investor B, 4.5% (vs. 7.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 36% (vs. 32.2%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 20.3% (vs. 23%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly tightened during January 2025. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 12.9% (vs. 11.8% as of 31 December 2024); GBL, 40% (vs. 40.9%);
Heineken Holding, 13.2% (vs. 15.8%); Industrivärden C, 3.0% (vs. 5.5%); Investor B, 4.5% (vs. 7.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 36% (vs. 32.2%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 20.3% (vs. 23%).
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: January 2025 Report

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chuoh-pack-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1360:1" rel="noopener">Chuoh Pack Industry (3952 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giga-prize-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6115:1" rel="noopener">Giga Prize (3830 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanyo-special-steel-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15900:1" rel="noopener">Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ascot-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9576:1" rel="noopener">Ascot Corp (3264 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lifestyle-china-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26090:1" rel="noopener">Lifestyle China (2136 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>. 
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avjennings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12578:1" rel="noopener">Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/millennium-copthorne-hotels-nz-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5040:1" rel="noopener">Millennium &amp; Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ)</a>. 
</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Chuoh Pack Industry (3952 JP), Giga Prize (3830 JP), Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP), Ascot Corp (3264 JP), Lifestyle China (2136 HK), Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP). 

Lowest spreads: Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Macromill, Inc (3978 JP), Millennium &amp; Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ). 



Merger Arb Mondays (03 Feb) - ESR, LifeStyle China, Vesync, Giga Prize, Sanyo, Ascot, Seven & I

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of January 2025, 14 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in January was ~57%, excluding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-art-retail-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:401:1" rel="noopener">Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)</a>'s massive takeunder.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% .</li>
</ul>


For the month of January 2025, 14 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in January was ~57%, excluding Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)'s massive takeunder.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% .


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2025: Sun Art, Sanyo Special Steel, Jamco, Ascot, Dropsuite, Smart Share

<ul>
<li>Back on the 5th December, Gordan Tang (&amp; his wife Celine) acquired a 2.14% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suntec-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:151:1" rel="noopener">Suntec REIT (SUN SP)</a>, lifting their stake to 31.45% from 29.31%, triggering a MGO.</li>
<li>This had all the hallmarks of a technical Offer. The Offer price was S$1.16/share compared to the S$1.17/share undisturbed price. The IFA opined the Offer was not fair nor reasonable. </li>
<li>The Tangs have now bumped to S$1.19/share. Terms are not final. The IFA viewpoint won't budge. This is an opportunistic move from the Tangs. But why not roll the dice?</li>
</ul>


Back on the 5th December, Gordan Tang (&amp; his wife Celine) acquired a 2.14% stake in Suntec REIT (SUN SP), lifting their stake to 31.45% from 29.31%, triggering a MGO.
This had all the hallmarks of a technical Offer. The Offer price was S$1.16/share compared to the S$1.17/share undisturbed price. The IFA opined the Offer was not fair nor reasonable. 
The Tangs have now bumped to S$1.19/share. Terms are not final. The IFA viewpoint won't budge. This is an opportunistic move from the Tangs. But why not roll the dice?


Suntec REIT (SUN SP): Tang's Curious Bump

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/slb-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26989:1" rel="noopener">SLB Development (SLB SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15597:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Ltd (JAP SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lifestyle-china-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26090:1" rel="noopener">Lifestyle China (2136 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/get-nice-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29667:1" rel="noopener">Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK)</a>.
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avjennings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12578:1" rel="noopener">Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wide-bay-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18747:1" rel="noopener">Auswide Bank (ABA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pressance-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17783:1" rel="noopener">Pressance Corp (3254 JP)</a>. 
</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: SLB Development (SLB SP), Japfa Ltd (JAP SP), Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), Lifestyle China (2136 HK), Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK).

Lowest spreads: Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Auswide Bank (ABA AU), Pressance Corp (3254 JP). 



Merger Arb Mondays (27 Jan) - Fosun Tourism, Get Nice, Lifestyle China, Canvest, Japfa, SLB

Australia

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

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Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: January 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly tightened during January 2025. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Merger Arb Mondays (03 Feb) - ESR, LifeStyle China, Vesync, Giga Prize, Sanyo, Ascot, Seven & I

This week, the highest gross spreads are Chuoh Pack Industry (273%), Giga Prize (48.5%), Sanyo Special Steel (37.4%), Ascot Corp (20.4%), Lifestyle...

Arun George

Suntec REIT (SUN SP): Tang's Curious Bump

After the Tangs bumped to S$1.19/share on the 8th January, the IFA, with a fair value range of S$2.07-S$2.26, concluded on the 17th January that...

David Blennerhassett

Merger Arb Mondays (27 Jan) - Fosun Tourism, Get Nice, Lifestyle China, Canvest, Japfa, SLB

This week, the highest gross spreads are SLB Development (36.1%), Japfa (17.0%), Seven & I (16.8%), Lifestyle China (15.3%), Get Nice Financial...

Arun George

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Selected European HoldCos and DLC: January 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly tightened during January 2025. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Merger Arb Mondays (03 Feb) - ESR, LifeStyle China, Vesync, Giga Prize, Sanyo, Ascot, Seven & I

This week, the highest gross spreads are Chuoh Pack Industry (273%), Giga Prize (48.5%), Sanyo Special Steel (37.4%), Ascot Corp (20.4%), Lifestyle...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2025: Sun Art, Sanyo Special Steel, Jamco, Ascot, Dropsuite, Smart Share

For the month of January, 14 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$6bn. The average premium for the new...

David Blennerhassett

Suntec REIT (SUN SP): Tang's Curious Bump

After the Tangs bumped to S$1.19/share on the 8th January, the IFA, with a fair value range of S$2.07-S$2.26, concluded on the 17th January that...

David Blennerhassett

Merger Arb Mondays (27 Jan) - Fosun Tourism, Get Nice, Lifestyle China, Canvest, Japfa, SLB

This week, the highest gross spreads are SLB Development (36.1%), Japfa (17.0%), Seven & I (16.8%), Lifestyle China (15.3%), Get Nice Financial...

Arun George